Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crystal Bay, NV

DISCUSSION

* As of this writing, light showers continue in Lassen, Plumas, and northern Washoe counties. Per surface observations, precipitation amounts are light, generally between a trace to 0.05". These light showers will quickly move southeast this morning, with minimal amounts.

* A quiet day with normal temperatures. Typical westerly breezy winds in the afternoon with gusts of 20-25 mph. There remains a 10-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the eastern Sierra from southern Lassen County to Mono County.

* System arrives late today into Saturday. For latest changes to the forecast, the system is bit faster. Precipitation chances have trended a bit lower (20-40%) for Mono County, the immediate Reno-Carson City-Minden area, and southern Lyon and Mineral counties. But, the best wetting rain (>0.10") chances still stretch from far NE CA and much of western NV with a 50-80% chance for precipitation. Snowfall totals have also trended down since prior guidance (again faster system), with amounts of up to an inch. Snow levels start off high on Saturday, generally between 7,000'-8,000'. Snow levels then decrease to around 5,000'-5,500' by Sunday morning.

* Strong winds are still a good bet this weekend. West winds on Saturday will switch to more of a northerly direction on Sunday.
Ensemble solutions are still showing a signal for anomalously strong winds on Saturday. This is especially the case south of Highway 50, along US-395 in Alpine and Mono counties, and Highway 95 in Mineral County. As for the dynamics producing the strong winds this weekend, winds on Saturday appear to be driven more by upper level strong winds. Also, NamNest/GFS modeled soundings from KMMH are also hinting at an inversion above mountain-top level, which would help increase surface gusts.
Winds on Sunday are surface gradient driven with some upper level support. Widespread wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be likely with wind gusts exceeding 50+ mph for wind prone areas.

* Long-term ensemble solutions continue to highlight the return of a ridge pattern across the western US. Temperatures will increase back above average with dry weather for at least the next 7-days. -McKellar

AVIATION

* 10-25% chance for thunderstorms in the eastern Sierra from around 21z to 03z, mostly impacting KTRK/KTVL/KMMH. Winds will be light and mainly from the west today, with gusts up to 20 kts at all area terminals in the afternoon.

* Areas of IFR in patchy FZFG are possible at KTRK overnight thru 16z Friday morning.

* Another storm is on the horizon for the weekend with more winds, valley rain and mountain snow. There is an increased trend for LLWS and mountain turbulence concerns starting early Saturday morning continuing into Monday morning. -McKellar

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.