Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carnelian Bay, CA

DISCUSSION

* Weak ridge across the Sierra and western Nevada will bring warmer, near average temperatures for the season. Plan on highs in the mid- 70s for western NV, eastern Lassen, and lower elevations of Alpine and Mono counties. For the eastern Sierra communities, highs will generally be in the low to upper 60s. Typical winds are forecast each afternoon and evening with gusts 15-25 mph. Chances for showers will be relatively low (10-20%) across the Eastern Sierra this afternoon and then late tonight into early Friday across northern NV and far northeastern CA as a quick shortwave swings through. The lower end shower chances continue on Friday along the Sierra Front stretching from Susanville southward to the eastern Sierra.

* Shower potential continues to ramp up from Friday night into Saturday as another weekend storm barrels through the Sierra and western Nevada. Widespread precipitation will be possible with snow down to around 8000 feet. The best wetting rain (>0.10")
chances stretch from far NE CA and much of western NV with a 50- 80% chance for precipitation. That potential tapers downward to 25- 45% for Mono County, the immediate Reno-Carson City-Minden area, and southern Lyon and Mineral counties. Snow accumulations will be difficult to come by on area roadways, but above 8500 feet there could be a couple of inches by Monday morning.

* Stronger winds are on the table for this weekend as well with west to northwest winds on Saturday switching to gusty northerly winds on Sunday. Areas south of Highway 50 are still showing a decent signal (ECMWF EFI) for anomalously strong winds on Saturday, then transitioning to more widespread wind signal for Sunday that extends from far NE CA and NW NV southward through the Highway 395/Interstate 580 corridor down through southern Lyon and Mineral counties. The strong winds on Saturday appear to be driven more by upper level strong winds, while the winds on Sunday are surface gradient driven with some upper level support. In simple terms, it is going to be windy on both days with impacts to travel and recreation likely. Widespread wind gusts 35 to 45 mph will be likely with wind gusts exceeding 50+ mph for wind prone areas. Temperatures will plummet with and behind these strong winds on Saturday, so be ready to bundle up for a day or two.

* Long-term ensemble solutions continue to highlight the return of a ridge pattern, with temperatures increasing back above average with dry weather next week.

-Edan

AVIATION

* Winds will be light and mainly from the west today, with gusts up to 20 kts at all area terminals.

* Areas of IFR in patchy FZFG are possible at KTRK overnight thru 16z Friday morning.

* Another storm is on the horizon for the weekend with more winds, valley rain and mountain snow. There is an increased trend for LLWS and mountain turbulence concerns starting early Saturday morning continuing into Monday morning. -McKellar


REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.