Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Albion, CA

DISCUSSION
Scattered mid- to high- level cloud cover has begun to clear this afternoon beneath weak upper level ridging, allowing coastal fog to scatter out as well. High temperatures are looking slightly warmer (into the mid to upper 80's) across the interior with afternoon sunshine. However, widespread cloud cover will return this evening and Friday as a cutoff low approaches the region within a broad upper trough. Winds will begin to turn southerly and increase late Friday ahead of a leading cold front, with SSE gusts 10 to 15 mph possible on the coast and along exposed terrain.

Significant spread in model guidance continues to limit confidence in the precipitation forecast. Short and mid range models are coming into better agreement on the highest rainfall occurring along the Mendocino coast/King Range, especially with added orographic effects due to southwesterly flow. However, accumulations are widely varying. NBM 25th to 75th percentiles for 24 hour precipitation span <0.25 inches to 1.5 inches from Del Norte to southern Mendocino County, with over 2 inches possible in the higher elevations of the King Range. ECMWF and GFS are in similar agreement, with WPC staying conservative with 0.25 to 0.5 inches across the entire CWA Hi-res models on the other hand are hesitant to include much more than 0.10 to 0.25 inches, even in the coast ranges. Hopefully the next few models run will continue to resolve this discrepancy over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Otherwise, seasonable temperatures are expected to resume late Saturday into Sunday, with chilly morning low temperatures possible across interior valleys (depending on total rainfall). Long range models clusters indicate a broad ridge nosing into the west coast early next week, potentially bringing highs back into the 80's. The next chance for measurable rainfall is beginning to resolve for early Tuesday into Wednesday. While details will change before next week, we are clearly beginning to see a more fall-like pattern developing.



AVIATION
Transitory ridging was accompanied by an excess of high clouds (could be considered a dirty ridge). The significance for aviation was the fact that using satellite, pockets of coastal stratus was obstructed in the early morning, and therefore covered up much of the stratus. Both ACV and CEC reported some restrictive LIFR/IFR weather. Conditions became scattered by mid morning at ACV but lingered nearly all day at CEC due to light S-SSW wind flow. The Influx of high clouds moved across all counties but inland airfields remained VFR. Overnight/Friday morning: Most guidance products are promoting areas of low clouds at the coast again. However, any stratus will most likely dissipate early as a low pressure system, over the ocean, starts to trek toward the region through the day. /TA



MARINE
The northerly winds have diminished to around 5 to 10 kts as high pressure weakens. This is due to an upper level low starting to approach the waters. The lingering NW swell is around 5 to 7 feet at 12 seconds. There is also a small southerly swell around 2 feet at 14 seconds. As the upper level low approaches late tonight and Friday winds will start to become southerly. Initially there will some local southerly winds near the coast, but these will expand across all the waters on Friday.

Saturday afternoon and evening the northerly winds are expected to start to diminish as the upper low weakens. At the same time a westerly swell builds to around 8 feet at 11 seconds. This will combine with a short period southerly wave of 3 to 5 feet at 5 seconds. Saturday night and Sunday these winds and waves all diminish.

Monday and new long period swell starts to build into the waters.
This may be the largest swell so far this fall. Initially it is expected to be around 3 feet at 18 seconds. This is expected to rapidly build to around 11 feet at 16 seconds. Winds north of Cape Mendocino are still expected to be fairly light so this will make the long period wave about the only energy in the water. The set behavior on these waves may set up a sneaker wave event. This wave is expected to gradually diminish Tuesday afternoon and evening.
This wave is being generated by a very strong area of low pressure that starts near the Aleutians and moves into the Gulf of Alaska.
The ECMWF and GFS models are in fairly good agreement on this feature developing making confidence moderate for this swell. The associated wave models are also showing similar solutions. MKK



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ455-470-475.