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PZZ455 Cape Mendocino To Pt Arena Out 10 Nm- 836 Am Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves nw 7 ft at 7 seconds...and nw 6 ft at 15 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves N 8 ft at 7 seconds...and nw 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Wed..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves N 7 ft at 8 seconds...and nw 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves nw 6 ft at 7 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 5 ft at 10 seconds...and W 4 ft at 15 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt. Waves nw 3 ft at 8 seconds...and W 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 3 ft at 7 seconds...and W 2 ft at 11 seconds.

PZZ400 836 Am Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for northern california waters..Northerlies will increase through today in the wake of a cold front. Gale force northerly winds are expected for mostly the outer waters this afternoon and through tonight as high pressure strengthens offshore while a thermal trough builds and shifts westward over the northern inner coastal waters. Gale force winds are forecast to persist north of cape mendocino through tomorrow evening. Northerly winds and steep waves will diminish on Thursday for much of the area, and then remain light and variable Friday through Saturday. NW swell is forecast to peak near 6 feet today and then steadily subside for the remainder of the week.

FXUS66 KEKA 031055 AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 355 AM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Drizzle and fog will quickly clear this morning giving way to warmer and drier conditions. Offshore flow will promote warm conditions midweek with even the coast reaching above 70 with the interior in the 90s. Cooler and wetter weather will return this weekend.



DISCUSSION
A very modest shortwave moving south along the coast has helped generate light drizzle and fog overnight along with deep marine influence inland. High pressure and warm temperatures will quickly begin to build just offshore today associated with a ridge over the Eastern Pacific.

The setup of the ridge will generally produce easterly wind, especially for the northern part of the area. That said, a generally weak pressure gradient will keep easterly wind gentle at most.
Easterly winds will peak Tuesday night into Wednesday with interior ridges seeing gusts to 30 mph. The strongest winds will be restricted to the ridges of Trinity, eastern Humboldt, and Del Norte Counties and along the rim of Sacramento Valley in Lake County. Still, even gentle wind will be enough to shunt marine influence offshore and delay the afternoon sea breeze. This will allow for noticeable coastal warming with he ECMWF EFI highlighting above normal temperatures all along the coast through Thursday. In Eureka, the NBM has a 50% chance of temperatures above 73 on Wednesday, which would make it the warmest day of the year so far. At the same time, interior temperatures will reach the 90s with generally hot and dry conditions. While no where near recording breaking, the conditions will be solidly above average.

As high pressure continues to push inland, heating and drying will persist for the interior with NBM placing a 50% chance of at least isolated high temperatures near 95. At the same time, the movement of a thermal trough more onshore will cool the coast with a shallow but increasingly strong marine layer. In the extended, 80% of cluster ensembles agree that a deep upper level trough will approach shore this weekend into early next week. Such a feature will bring cooler and more moist weather. While long range guidance shows moisture generally pulling north of the area, at least light widespread wetting rain is likely along the North Coast(60 to 80 percent chance). /JHW



AVIATION
A plume of shallow moisture associated with a decaying frontal boundary has been sliding southward down the coast through the night. The moist air has impacted coastal aerodromes and adjacent river valleys with IFR and LIFR cigs and vsbys. Coastal terminals are forecast to improve this afternoon as drying northerlies return and strengthen. A thermal trough will form tonight and offshore winds will preclude widespread stratus redevelopment. Trapped moist air in the North Coast river valleys and Eel delta may yield patches of low clouds with IFR ceilings.
Robust NE winds 1000-2000 feet AGL will bring a threat of low level wind shear for locations that decouple. More specifically, HRRR guidance indicates over an 80% probability for low level wind shear at KCEC tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail tonight.



MARINE
Northerlies will increase today in the wake of a cold front. Gale force northerly winds are expected for mostly the outer waters late today and through tonight as high pressure strengthens offshore while a thermal trough builds and shifts westward over the northern inner coastal waters. A few gale gusts may occur inside 10NM, near Pt St George and downwind of Cape Mendocino, but areal coverage is well below 50%. Gale force winds are forecast to persist north of Cape Mendocino through Wednesday evening - over the outer waters and around Pt St George. Areal coverage of gale force winds diminishes below 50% in pzz470 and then expands in the afternoon and evening on Wed. Therefore will maintain the gale warning through Wed evening. Seas will be borderline for a hazardous seas warning north of Cape Mendocino tonight, with wind waves around 10 feet at 8 seconds across the outer fringes of PZZ450 (northern inner waters).
Otherwise, conditions are forecast to ease up south of Cape Mendocino on WEd, though seas will still be sufficient to warrant an advisory for the outer waters. Northerly winds and steep waves will diminish on Thursday for much of the area, and then remain light and variable Friday through Saturday. Steep northerly waves will probably remain sufficiently elevated on Thu for the northern outer waters. NW swell is forecast to peak near 6 feet today and then steadily subside for the remainder of the week. NW swell is forecast to peak near 6 feet today and then steadily subside for the remainder of the week.



FIRE WEATHER
A thermal trough developing offshore today through Wednesday will bring the possibility of dry offshore wind midweek.
Currently, the pattern will likely only support moderate easterly wind 10 to 15 mph at most thanks to little inland support from a distant vertically stacked trough. Even at the 75th percentile, NBM shows only the highest and most exposed ridges reaching 20 mph sustained with gusts over 30 mph. ECMWF EFI is not highlighting any unusually strong wind outside of the Sacramento Valley. Still, conditions will be hot and dry with morning RH recovery as low as 50 percent, afternoon RH 20 to 30 percent and highs in the low 90s. Hot and dry conditions with poor recoveries will continue late in the week though wind will generally weaken and become terrain driven. /JHW



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470.

Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ475.

Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ475.

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Albion
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Tue -- 03:10 AM PDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:08 AM PDT     2.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:17 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:08 PM PDT     5.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:54 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:13 PM PDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:34 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albion, California, Tide feet

Point Cabrillo
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Tue -- 12:21 AM PDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:45 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:02 AM PDT     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:17 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:05 PM PDT     0.74 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:18 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:51 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:13 PM PDT     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:54 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:34 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:14 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Cabrillo, California Current, knots

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Eureka, CA,