Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 7:20 PM   Moonset 5:25 AM

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FXUS63 KTOP 230536 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1236 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few thunderstorms move through this evening and overnight for areas along and north of Interstate 70. No severe weather is expected.

- Unsettle pattern sets up Thursday into the weekend with several rounds of thunderstorms, including the potential for severe weather Thursday through Friday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Upper-level flow has become quasi-zonal across the Central Plains this afternoon with a closed low progressing southeast out of Saskatchewan. A tightening pressure gradient has led to a windy day with gusts of 35-50mph observed this afternoon. Strong WAA has boosted temperatures into the 70s across the area. Gusts largely subside after sunset as a weak surface boundary approaches the area from the north. A subtle mid-level perturbation advances east along the KS/NE stateline this evening and overnight with sufficient lift and moisture to generate some showers and a few thunderstorms.
Models have trended a bit farther south with this activity, although best chances (50-60%) for rain remain along the KS/NE border.

The surface front swings through the area during the morning hours on Tuesday with winds switching to the north. The post-frontal airmass is only slightly cooler and highs will reach the 70s again Tuesday afternoon. Surface high pressure moves in from the north on Wednesday as a couple of weak perturbations transgress the central CONUS. With low-level dry air in place, precipitation chances are slim (15-25%) during the day Wednesday; both the GFS and ECMWF have trended drier for the daytime hours as well.

A period of unsettled weather begins Thursday as a potent wave approaches the Plains. Southerly flow shunts a warm front northward through the day Thursday and PoPs increase as a lead wave in the southwest flow ejects across the Plains. Following closely behind is a second wave, potentially negatively tilted, that progresses through on Friday. With the surface low lifting into central Nebraska, the warm sector will reside across eastern Kansas with a dryline extending southward across Kansas by midday Friday. Differences in deterministic guidance remain rather large in timing and location of synoptic features, but the overall shear/CAPE environment would be supportive of severe weather, especially Friday. Details will become clearer as the event approaches, so be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast. Another trough is progged to eject across the Plains this weekend, keeping chances for showers and storms in the forecast through Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR TAFs can be expected through the period at all sites. Winds will remain out of the south through the early morning hours before shifting towards the northwest following a surface boundary passage. Cannot rule out some marginal wind shear over the next few hours, but will only be an issue if winds fall below 10 knots. This has not been the case and is the reason for no mention of wind shear in TAFs. Winds will begin to decrease below 10 knots Tuesday evening, remaining out of the north.



TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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