Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Delphos, KS
October 10, 2024 11:49 PM CDT (04:49 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:34 AM Sunset 7:00 PM Moonrise 2:15 PM Moonset 11:20 PM |
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS63 KTOP 102316 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 616 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Near-record warmth Friday and Saturday.
- Much cooler early next week, potentially impacting vegetation.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Recent water vapor imagery showing a small but potent upper wave diving southeast over central Kansas with an upper ridge stretching from the southern Rockies into the upper Mississippi Valley and a shortwave moving swiftly east over the Pacific Northwest. The nearby upper wave has combined with some mid-level moisture and strong lapse rates aloft to produce a few areas of showers and thunderstorms in eastern Kansas. Nearly all models have failed to capture this activity but there is no evidence it would diminish as the wave passes. Have included some mention of this into the afternoon but will need to monitor trends. Gusty winds below severe levels would be the main concern outside of lightning.
A cold front associated with the latter wave settles southeast into southern Nebraska Friday. Warm air advection ahead of the front should boost temperatures a few more degrees Friday. The front moves little through much of Saturday with a bit more warming anticipated despite some high cloud. Record highs could be threatened both days.
The cold front then passes dry Saturday night with significantly cooler temperatures following, roughly 20 degrees colder Sunday and 25 degrees colder for Monday and Tuesday compared to previous days as Canadian air pushes in. Winds Sunday look a bit breezy though dewpoint forecast vary widely, giving little confidence in how fire weather parameters will play out. This will likely be the main period for fire partners to monitor through Wednesday especially if slightly windier conditions develop. Temperatures for the early to week aren't quite as cold as earlier expected, but some frost still appears possible mainly Tuesday morning. A warming trend takes place in the later periods as a longwave trough finally moves into the western CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Small area of showers currently over Topeka will continue to fall apart over the next hour or two, leaving behind clear skies for the rest of the period. Winds stay around 5 kts from the southeast overnight, becoming more southwesterly tomorrow at 5-10 kts.
CLIMATE
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Record high temperature information:
Friday, October 11:
Record high (year) Forecast Topeka 94 (1975) 90 Concordia 94 (1975) 89
Saturday, October 12:
Record high (year) Forecast Topeka 94 (1899) 92 Concordia 93 (1899) 88
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 616 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Near-record warmth Friday and Saturday.
- Much cooler early next week, potentially impacting vegetation.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Recent water vapor imagery showing a small but potent upper wave diving southeast over central Kansas with an upper ridge stretching from the southern Rockies into the upper Mississippi Valley and a shortwave moving swiftly east over the Pacific Northwest. The nearby upper wave has combined with some mid-level moisture and strong lapse rates aloft to produce a few areas of showers and thunderstorms in eastern Kansas. Nearly all models have failed to capture this activity but there is no evidence it would diminish as the wave passes. Have included some mention of this into the afternoon but will need to monitor trends. Gusty winds below severe levels would be the main concern outside of lightning.
A cold front associated with the latter wave settles southeast into southern Nebraska Friday. Warm air advection ahead of the front should boost temperatures a few more degrees Friday. The front moves little through much of Saturday with a bit more warming anticipated despite some high cloud. Record highs could be threatened both days.
The cold front then passes dry Saturday night with significantly cooler temperatures following, roughly 20 degrees colder Sunday and 25 degrees colder for Monday and Tuesday compared to previous days as Canadian air pushes in. Winds Sunday look a bit breezy though dewpoint forecast vary widely, giving little confidence in how fire weather parameters will play out. This will likely be the main period for fire partners to monitor through Wednesday especially if slightly windier conditions develop. Temperatures for the early to week aren't quite as cold as earlier expected, but some frost still appears possible mainly Tuesday morning. A warming trend takes place in the later periods as a longwave trough finally moves into the western CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Small area of showers currently over Topeka will continue to fall apart over the next hour or two, leaving behind clear skies for the rest of the period. Winds stay around 5 kts from the southeast overnight, becoming more southwesterly tomorrow at 5-10 kts.
CLIMATE
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Record high temperature information:
Friday, October 11:
Record high (year) Forecast Topeka 94 (1975) 90 Concordia 94 (1975) 89
Saturday, October 12:
Record high (year) Forecast Topeka 94 (1899) 92 Concordia 93 (1899) 88
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCNK
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCNK
Wind History Graph: CNK
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley
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Topeka, KS,
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