Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Delphos, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough digging into the West Coast. This will eventually help kick out the stubborn cut- off low stuck over the southeast, allowing a more progressive pattern to return. Between the two troughs, upper ridging over the Plains is keeping warm temperatures present. Temperatures today and Wednesday climb a bit further as lee cyclogenesis to our west increases southerly flow. With 850 mb temperatures around 20C, highs should approach or surpass 90 on Wednesday afternoon.

Late Wednesday into Thursday, the upper trough will pivot northeast across the Northern Plains, along with an associated surface low. An instability axis will develop ahead of the front across northern Kansas, however with the warm temperatures aloft, surface moisture looks just marginal enough that the environment should remain capped. Can't completely rule out a brief shower or storm near the Nebraska border after sunset Wednesday as H5 heights begin to fall, but the odds of this occurring are quite low (around/below 10%).
Cold front moves through Thursday morning, bringing drier but only slightly cooler air in its wake. A secondary shortwave quickly swings through early Friday, reinforcing the drier air for a couple days.

By the second half of the weekend into early next week, guidance is consistent on another stronger upper trough moving into the western CONUS. Rich moisture should quickly return north as southerly surface flow redevelops ahead of several embedded shortwaves. This overall pattern appears to be increasingly favorable for severe weather somewhere across the larger Central/Southern Plains region.
However, predictability of the aforementioned embedded shortwaves is naturally low 5-7 days out. The position and evolution of these shortwaves will determine the location, timing, and severity of thunderstorms, whether that is over northeast Kansas or somewhere else in the broader region. It will take a few days for these synoptic details to become clear, and then another day or so for mesoscale details to become resolved. So for now, stay tuned. Regardless of if we see severe weather next week or not, it's a good time to refresh your severe weather plan as we approach peak season here in Kansas.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southeast winds will continue at 11 to 14 KTS with some minor gusts through the afternoon hours. The winds will diminish to 5 to 8 KTS after sunset.

CLIMATE
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Record High Temperature for May 13

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 92 (2018) 86 Concordia 93 (1940) 86

Record High Temperature for May 14

Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 95 (2013) 91 Concordia 95 (1899) 90

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.