Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cynthiana, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected into tonight with a few lingering showers possible into Friday. There is a low end severe weather threat this evening ahead of a cold front moving through. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts.

2) Gusty winds are expected on Friday with a rapid drop in temperatures. Frost is likely Saturday night into Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1)
A warm front will lift north into our area tonight ahead of a low pressure system riding east along it. This will be followed by a strong cold front that will push southeast across our area through Friday morning.

Good moisture transport will develop across the region in the developing southwest flow through this evening. As the warm front lifts north into our area and the low approaches, shear profiles will be on the increase. However, there remains some question as to how much instability will develop/be advected up into our area ahead of this. As of now, it looks like the best chance for some destabilization will be across our far west/southwest. This is where the best chance for any severe storms seems to be this evening. If some stronger storms are able to develop, damaging wind would be the primary threat. With high PWs, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any stronger storms, but this threat too looks to be limited.

Between the warm front tonight and the cold front on Friday morning, we will have non-diurnal temperatures over the next 24 hours. Temperatures will remain cool through much of this afternoon before slowly rising overnight in developing southwest low level flow. Temperatures will then rapidly drop off from the northwest Thursday morning as strong low level CAA overspreads the area.

Key Message 2)
In the low level CAA, temperatures will level off/continue to drop through the day on Friday with readings by late afternoon only in the mid 50s across the area. Gusty winds will also develop in the CAA with wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range possible through the day.

The cold air will then remain in place across our area through the weekend. Saturday night looks to be the coldest night, with clear skies and light winds. Will undercut guidance a bit with lows in the low to mid 30s and widespread frost expected.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR cigs are hanging tough across the area early this afternoon and expect this to continue until the warm front begins to lift into our area late this afternoon into this evening. Scattered showers will develop as we head into this evening along with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm. In strengthening southwest low level flow, some LLWS will also be possible at times overnight.

A cold front will move southeast across the region late tonight into Friday morning. As it does, winds will swing around to the west and then northwest and increase, with gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range possible through the day on Friday. MVFR cigs will then prevail through the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Occasional MVFR conditions are possible through Friday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.