Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cynthiana, OH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Ongoing fcst remains on track through the near term period as an initially-clear sky turns cloudier toward daybreak and beyond with the arrival of moist low level ascent. Cannot completely rule out a few stray sprinkles between 09z-12z, particularly near/W of I-75, but do think that most areas remain completely dry through the nighttime.

After a warm day today, temps will remain warm overnight, mainly in the 60s due to sustained light wind and increasing dewpoints.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Focus on Tuesday will be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Low pressure associated with a mid level s/wv will move from the western Great Lakes to southeast Canada. Its attendant cold front will then move southeast into our region Tuesday night. Ahead of this front, it appears that a mid level s/wv, likely an MCV, will eject from the southern plains into our region during Tuesday afternoon.
This feature will combine with a prefrontal trough and its low level convergence field to produce showers and thunderstorms in an increasing unstable environment. There are some coverage and timing issues amongst the CAMs. However, the predominate solution is for showers and thunderstorms to get going across our west from late morning into early afternoon, progressing east through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Models suggest at least moderate MLCAPE will be available for storms to work with (max around 1500 J/kg).
This instability will be found in an environment with at least moderate shear, leading to the potential for organized convection.
The primary severe weather threats will be damaging winds, especially if convection can organize into bowing segments. Large hail will also be a concern, especially if a few discrete storms can get going before the convection conglomerates. It will be breezy outside of storms with wind gusts ranging from 25 mph south to 35 mph north.
Highs will range from 75 to 80.

For Tuesday night, any ongoing convection should shift to the east and south into the evening. The actual cold front will then move southward overnight. Some shower/storm activity is expected with this front, but coverage should be much less, and overall will wane overnight. The front is forecast to make it to or just south of our southern CWFA border by Wednesday morning. Lows will vary, ranging from the upper 40s north to the lower 60s south.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
An active weather pattern is expected through early Friday... then dry weather is in store through the weekend into early next week.

A frontal boundary will be stalled across our northern Kentucky counties early Wednesday. The front will begin to lift north in the evening and overnight, bringing a return to 60 degree dewpoints heading into Thursday. This warm front will also keep at least scattered convection in the forecast on Wednesday. However, by Thursday, we will see a stronger disturbance lift northeast toward the Ohio Valley. This will bring widespread showers and storms Thursday, followed by a cold frontal passage late Thursday night into Friday morning.

After a reinforcing disturbance drops through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley later on Friday, surface high pressure will build in for the weekend.

Temperatures will begin the period above normal before dropping a bit below normal Friday and Saturday. Warmer temperatures will return Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Aside from a FEW cirrus from time-to-time, skies will remain mostly clear through 09z before more widespread mid/high clouds overspread from the W toward daybreak and beyond. Several clusters of SHRA/TSRA should begin moving through the area and impacting wrn sites as early as 15z, with the best coverage of TSRA expected during the heart of the afternoon, within the 18z-21z time frame. One or more clusters of TSRA are expected to develop by 18z and move to the ENE through the local area during this time. Sudden/abrupt changes in CIGs , VSBYs, and wind speed/direction are likely within the strongest activity, but such occurrences will be handled with amendments as needed.

The coverage and intensity of SHRA/TSRA will wane toward 00z and beyond, shifting to the S of the local area as the front slowly shifts N to S between 02z-06z. Aside from reductions due to TSRA, VFR CIGs conditions will prevail until the FROPA, at which point some MVFR VSBYs/CIGs will be possible between 06z-12z Wednesday, particularly for srn sites.

Light southerly winds at 6-8kts will prevail through 06z before slowly increasing toward daybreak as the pressure gradient tightens.
SW LLWS on the order of 40-50kts will develop between about 06z-13z.
SW sfc winds at 15-20kts, with gusts around 25-30kts, are expected by mid-morning through most of the daytime. However, gustiness should subside briefly in the immediate wake of any TSRA with the cooling of the BL. Stronger wind gusts are likely in TSRA activity. Winds will go out of the N at less than 10kts by 06z Wednesday.

OUTLOOK.. MVFR CIGs are possible Tuesday night into the first part of Wednesday. Additional thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. MVFR/IFR conditions likely Thursday into Thursday night along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR conditions possible Friday into early Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.