Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cynthiana, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) A significant winter storm will bring heavy accumulations of snowfall later today through Sunday, with impacts to travel expected to continue through Monday. Ice accumulations will also be a concern over portions of northeastern Kentucky and the lower Scioto Valley in Ohio.

2) A prolonged period of bitterly cold conditions is expected through the upcoming workweek. Outdoor exposure should be limited through at least Friday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A significant winter storm will bring heavy accumulations of snowfall later today through Sunday, with impacts to travel expected to continue through Monday. Ice accumulations will also be a concern over portions of northeastern Kentucky and the lower Scioto Valley in Ohio.

Cold conditions remain in place at the onset of the storm system.
With dry low level air in place at the start of the system, starting to see some returns on radar, however nearest observations reporting snow are still south of the forecast area. The column will saturate into the evening hours and will start to see snowfall reaching the ground. Snow will start to pick up especially after midnight. Expect precipitation to be almost all snow overnight across the entire region.

Precipitation will continue through most of the day on Sunday, start to decrease by evening, and then taper off most locations overnight.
There will be the potential for some lingering flurries during the day on Monday. Snow will be the primary precipitation type across a large portion of the region, with a mix of precipitation types across portions of northern Kentucky and into southern Ohio for part of the daytime hours on Sunday.

Here are the parts of the system that are favorable for higher snowfall values. Banding of snow is expected, a long duration of snowfall is expected, and there is a lot of QPF with this system.
Cannot rule out some locally higher snowfall values than what is currently forecast just northwest of Interstate 71.

Here are the parts of the system that could result in lower snowfall values. The saturation within the DGZ is not as favorable as it could be. Across portions of the southern Scioto River Valley region and portions of northern Kentucky there is some warmer air aloft that could cause melting aloft. While there is cold air at the surface, there is some question on the exact type of snowflake that will occur and how easily that type of snowflake will accumulate. This melting aloft could lead to some potential lower snowfall values in these locations and will have to be monitored.

Sunday night there will be the potential for some blowing snow as there is a period of time where some wind gusts will be possible.
While no extremely windy conditions are expected, some blowing snow will be possible at times during the week with the snowpack and cold conditions.

This is a very large and hazardous storm system. Please be careful and take appropriate precautions.

2) A prolonged period of bitterly cold conditions is expected through the upcoming workweek. Outdoor exposure should be limited through at least Friday.

Anomalously-expansive and persistent mid/upper level troughing centered across the ern half of the CONUS will prevail through the week, with several embedded S/Ws providing reinforcing shots of arctic air into the Great Lakes and OH Vly regions through next weekend. This, combined with the expectation for an expansive and deep snowpack across the region by Monday, will lead to several consecutive days with daily averages about 20 degrees below seasonal norms through the week. This is especially notable given that we at pretty much at our climatological minimum in daily average temps, meaning that the upcoming cold snap will be particularly impressive.

Numerous days will feature overnight lows near or below zero, with highs only making it into the teens to perhaps 20 degrees through Friday. Wind chills through this period will occasionally dip into the negative teens or even lower, with overall wind chills favored to stay near or below zero for extended periods of time. At this juncture, the cold spell is expected to persist through the entirety of the week, with little improvement in the foreseeable future.

Have accounted for the cold with new headlines for the Sunday night through Tuesday morning timeframe. Have a cold weather advisory for Sunday night through the day on Monday and then an extreme cold watch for Monday night into Tuesday morning. Additional cold headlines might be needed during the week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions will start out the TAF period. As a storm system moves into the region as the afternoon and evening progresses, snow will start to fall across the TAF sites. Cigs and vsbys will lower overnight and through the end of the TAF period. LIFR to VLIFR conditions will be possible at times. Expect the primary precipitation type at the TAF sites to be snow. Some blowing snow will also be possible at the end of the longer KCVG TAF as winds start to pick up some.

OUTLOOK...IFR to LIFR conditions will occur with considerable accumulating snow into Sunday evening. MVFR conditions will be possible Sunday night. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday into Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Monday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 6 PM EST Monday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Monday for KYZ089>100.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 6 PM EST Monday for KYZ089>100.
Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Monday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 6 PM EST Monday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.