Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Comptche, CA

DISCUSSION
A weak weather system moved by last night and helped to weaken the inversion and keep coastal clouds more limited than in previous days. The next shortwave starts to approach the area this afternoon and is expected to increase stratus coverage and deepen the mariner layer overnight. Drizzle is likely along the coast tonight and Saturday morning. This is expected to be limited to the coastal areas in Humboldt and Del Norte counties. NBM model probabilities of over 0.10 inches of rain are only around 20 percent in interior Del Norte county with lower amounts elsewhere.
Winds are also expected to increase behind this weather system both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph are likely along the coast and over exposed areas. Sunday winds will start to diminish in the inland areas while the coast will remain nearly as windy. Highs over the weekend are generally expected to be in the 60s to low 70s in the inland areas. Most areas are expected to warm a few degrees on Sunday. The coldest night is expected to be Sunday morning with frost possible in the colder valleys of Trinity county, northeast Mendocino county and northern Lake county. The cloud cover still could keep some of these areas warmer, but this is uncertain at this point.

Next week warmer and drier conditions are expected across the area, however the high pressure looks slightly weaker than it did on earlier runs with some shortwaves moving by to the north of the area Monday through Wednesday. It still looks like all the rain will remain north of the area. Some mid or clouds are possible with these systems and they may allow coastal clouds to develop as well. In general it looks like temperatures will warm each day through Wednesday with some cooling possible later in the week.
MKK

AVIATION
Conditions have improved to VFR at all terminals early this afternoon as low clouds have largely scattered out.
Northwesterly breezes at the coastal terminals are expected to ease this evening and overnight. Model guidance is trending toward a shallow marine layer forming this evening and impacting the coastal terminals with MVFR/IFR ceilings dropping to IFR/LIFR later in the evening. This would correspond with a weak front moving through late this evening into early tomorrow morning, which could bring a brief period of lower ceilings and visibilities with light rain and drizzle. The marine layer is forecast to deepen behind the front, which may improve conditions to MVFR or IFR ceilings by sunrise.

In UKI, VFR is forecast for the next 24 hours. Northwesterly winds will increase tonight, though it is uncertain if these will mix down to the surface. Regardless, LLWS will be a threat tonight as 30-35 kt winds are forecast 1500-2000 AGL. These winds combined with a deeper marine layer could push stratus into/above UKI, though uncertainty is high. If any does make it, MVFR ceilings are possible. Any ceilings are expected to lift and scatter out after sunrise. JB



MARINE
Northerly winds have eased north of Cape Mendocino as a weak low pressure approaches the area. Elevated winds of 25-30 kts are possible in the lee of Cape Mendocino this afternoon with steep wind waves of 6-7 ft. Winds and seas ease tonight, but only temporarily as northerly winds increase again behind the front Saturday morning. Near-gale force gusts are possible in the lee of the Cape Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Fresh to strong breezes are forecast north of Cape Mendocino. Northerlies ease slightly Monday as the pressure gradient weakens, especially north of Cape Mendocino. JB



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ455-475.