Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dundalk, MD

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Sunny & mild conditions continue through the end of the week.

- 2) Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to arrive Saturday night.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Sunny & mild conditions continue through the end of the week.

Current surface analysis depicts that the cold front has largely pushed through the region this morning. In its wake, dry air builds in from the west as high pressure moves in overhead. A few wind gusts could reach around 20 knots late this afternoon before diminishing overnight as the front fully transitions out of the region. Temperatures remain in the mid-to-upper 70s today & tomorrow as upper-level ridging briefly builds over the Appalachians, with dewpoints ranging generally in the 30s across most areas. As most of CONUS remains quiet off to our west, clear skies and light winds should continue to dominate over the next 36-48 hours ahead of any potential remnants of Hurricane Isaias.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to arrive Saturday night.

Latest guidance show rain associated with remnants of Isaias arriving in central VA Saturday evening, a little quicker than what it was shown yesterday, and spreading northeast across the rest of the fcst area late Saturday night, reaching the Susquehanna River by 12Z Sunday. The rain will be moderately intense during the overnight hours Sat night through Sunday morning, and begin to diminish in intensity mid afternoon Sunday as mid-level dry slot begins to move in from the southwest. Ensemble guidance shows generally one to two inches of rain falling, with the heaviest/most intense rainfall falling in a roughly 12-hr period from 06Z-18Z Sun. Given the long duration and stratiform type, no flooding is expected. As for the risk of severe wx, if it were to occur, it would be Sunday night, with the greatest risk south of Point Lookout into the VA Tidewater region. Some showers could linger into Monday morning as the mid- level circulation crosses the area.

A strong cold front associated with a deepening northern stream trough is then fcst to cross the area Tue night bringing autumn chill for the middle and second half of next week.



AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

In the immediate wake of the cold front, clear & dry conditions are expected to persist over the region over the next 36-48 hours.
Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated across all terminals in the near term as high pressure builds overhead. KCHO could see a bit more cloud cover between Friday and Saturday as tropical remnants from Hurricane Isaias begin to push north, but VFR conditions are still expected to prevail through Saturday morning.

Breezier winds from this afternoon will diminish overnight, flowing out of the W to WNW. Winds could begin to shift more northeasterly on Saturday.

Rain is expected Saturday night through mid-afternoon Sunday, becoming lighter and more showery Sunday evening. A thunderstorm can't be ruled out Sunday night. Winds should strengthen Saturday night into Sunday as pressure gradient tightens. Wouldn't rule out some LLWS if a strong inversion develops. Showers should end by midday Monday. Expect IFR conditions late Sunday night through Sunday night with conditions improving Monday.

MARINE

Winds diminish below SCA criteria over the Chesapeake Bay later tonight. Light northwesterly winds shift easterly on Saturday, becoming gustier by Sunday as tropical remnants from Hurricane Isaias begin to track east over the Mid-Atlantic. Additional SCAs remain a likelihood at this point until any remaining tropical remnants move through.

SCA conditions are likely starting Saturday night and continuing through Sunday. Another period of SCA conditions is likely Tue night into Wed with gales possible.



TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Minor coastal flooding seems likely at sensitive locations Sunday evening due to rising water levels due to strengthening SE or S winds combined with high astronomical tides due to a New Moon.
Until then, tide levels remain below action stage.



LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530- 531-535-538.