Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dundalk, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure centered east of the Outer Banks stays in control today which will maintain tranquil weather. As mid/upper heights rise by around 4-6 dm, this translates to an increase in temperatures today. Expect highs to be around 3 to 6 degrees warmer which would support widespread upper 80s to low 90s over the region. As diurnal heating picks up, expect some fair weather cumulus to percolate through the afternoon before washing out after sundown. A few CAMs have a pop-up shower due to terrain circulations this afternoon, but the chance for measurable rain seems too low to include in the forecast. Some thin cirrus originating from convection over the Great Lakes will also skirt the area through the day.

High pressure moves offshore later today yielding a return to southerly winds on the western periphery of this ridge. This helps increase temperatures and dew points heading into the tonight. Forecast lows should mainly range from the mid 60s to low 70s, while being closer to 75 degrees in D.C. and Baltimore.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The anomalous ridge initially centered over the Missouri to Tennessee valleys will advance eastward in time. Global guidance agree on an intensification of this region given the expansive nature of the 594-dm contour. Being on the order of 2 standard deviations above climatology coupled with the stagnant nature of this ridge, this should set the stages for a multi-day heat wave. The latest forecast package calls for widespread mid 90s with a few pockets of upper 90s possible. It appears 850-mb temperatures will range from 22 to 24C which would support near 100 degree readings given a fully dry adiabatic layer to the surface. With dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, afternoon heat indices will begin to push into the 100 to 105 degree range. Heat Advisories may be needed across portions of the area on Sunday. Little to no relief is expected into the night as lows stay in the low/mid 70s (upper 70s in the urban hubs). As usual, mountain locations will be cooler while running in the mid/upper 60s.

A slight increase in heights aloft may usher temperatures to the century mark on Monday. Upper 90s become more widespread with a slew of 100 degree forecasts spread across vast portions of the area. Although winds shift to light northwesterlies, humidity levels still remain elevated. Opted to go slightly below the guidance which keeps such dew points in the low 70s. Heat indices up to 105 to 110 degrees are possible on Monday which starts pushing areas closer to Excessive Heat Warning criteria.
Will continue to monitor the forecast ahead with heat products likely to follow in the next day or two.

Nighttime temperatures further warm with mid/upper 70s covering larger portions of the map. For those vulnerable to the heat, please ensure to find ways to stay cool and hydrated, particularly at night. The following website provides more about heat safety: weather.gov/safety/heat.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A ridge of high pressure will remain in place into Tuesday, possibly even early Wednesday. Hot and increasingly humid conditions expected each day Tuesday through Friday. High temperatures in the middle to upper 90s each day, possibly reaching the lower 100s in the metros on one or two of those days. Heat index values will climb higher each afternoon than the previous day. Heat indices could reach the 100 to 107 range in many places. Low temperatures at night will be persistently in the middle 70s each night. The next chance for showers or thunderstorms is Tuesday afternoon or evening, but an even higher chance of showers and thunderstorms possible on Wednesday when the ridge of high pressure flattens or weakens. Additional thunderstorm chances remain through the end of the work week as a frontal zone slowly approaches from the north.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Given no precipitation in sight, VFR conditions are expected through the weekend and into early next week. High pressure around the area should keep winds around 10 knots or less. By Sunday, this ridge exits which yields a return to southerly winds. With an upper ridge setting up overhead, gradients weaken further into Monday.

VFR conditions at all terminals Tuesday through Tuesday night. A few restrictions cannot be ruled out on Wednesday given a slight chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Winds northwest 5 to 10 knots through the period.

MARINE
High pressure across the area has kept marine wind gusts mainly at 10 knots or less. However, this ridge is moving offshore with southerly channeling picking up later this evening into the overnight hours. Consequently, gusts up to 20 knots are possible over the Chesapeake Bay with a Small Craft Advisory in effect. A second period of southerly channeling may occur Sunday evening, but it currently looks more marginal and brief. Lighter winds are expected Monday as they shift to the west or northwest.

Sub-SCA winds for Tuesday through Wednesday night. Winds northwest 5 to 10 knots through the period. A slight chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon/evening could bring brief hazardous conditions to the waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A return to southerly flow will nudge tidal anomalies higher today. Although flooding is not forecast at this time, some guidance has Annapolis in particular very close to minor flood stage during the evenings this weekend.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>534-537>541-543.