Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Little River, CA

KEY MESSAGES:

* Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions through this evening for Lake, eastern Mendocino and eastern Trinity Counties due to low RH's and strong west and northwest winds.

* Gusty and locally strong coastal northerlies through this evening.

* Isolated light showers this afternoon in Del Norte County and over the Trinity Alps.

* Cooler interior temperatures this weekend, followed by a warming and drying trend early to mid next week.

DISCUSSION
A deep upper-level trough continue during southward this afternoon. Isolated light showers are expected to develop on the backside of the aforementioned trough this afternoon, primarily for Del Norte and NE Trinity. Otherwise, dry and cooler weather is forecast to prevail this afternoon and for the rest of the day. Breezy to gusty northwesterly winds continue through this evening across the area, with the strongest winds over the coastal headland and exposed ridges in Mendocino and Lake counties. Gusts from 25-35 mph are likely (65-75% chance), but higher terrain and ridges may even gusts up to 40 mph. Gusty, dry northwesterly winds continue to yield in low humidity across eastern Trinity, eastern Mendocino and Lake counties (see fire weather section for details).

Tonight, clearing skies are expected in the backside of the trough. This may allow patchy fog to form in the valleys with the lingering moisture. If skies clear out and winds go calm, patchy early morning frost will be possible (40% chance) for Trinity County (Hayfork) and NE Mendo (Covelo) on Sunday. As result, there is a chance for temperatures falling to 36F or less for a few hours right before sunrise.

A warming and drying trend is forecast early to mid next week with highs in the lower to mid 90's Tuesday and Wednesday for the interior valleys. Morning coastal stratus return on Tuesday, lifting and mixing during the afternoon hours.

Ensembles and deterministic are showing a series of shortwave moving across the area Wednesday through late next week. The scenario with those shortwaves would bring temperatures few degrees cooler, but may also increase west to northwest winds. ZVS



AVIATION
(18z TAF)...Building north wind has helped to quickly scour out any low clouds along the coast this morning, supporting generally VFR conditions. Winds gusting up to 25 kts and producing areas of haze will be the main aviation hazard this afternoon with otherwise VFR conditions across the interior.

Overnight conditions show much more uncertainty. About 60% of models show MVFR ceilings forming overnight along shore, 40% stay totally clear. On the other hand, 20% show Even low IFR ceilings, though any ceiling formation below about 1 kft AGL is unlikely. Timing is similarly uncertain with the most aggressive models forming ceilings by around 03z but other pushing it off as late as 09z. Though the exact outcome is uncertain, there is very little chance (10%) of LIFR conditions. Gusty north winds will most likely again help ceilings lift quickly Sunday morning. /JHW



MARINE
A deep trough is continuing to push inland Saturday, which has helped pull moderate to strong north winds close to shore. While winds are gentle in the northern waters, gale conditions are expected late Saturday afternoon in the southern inner waters around Ft. Bragg. Enhanced though slightly weaker conditions will remain Sunday and spread throughout the northern waters by Sunday night with gusts of 25 to 30 kts. Similar gusty conditions will continue through at least mid next week as high pressure gradually forms along shore. The state will mostly be controlled by short period wind waves as steep as 8 feet at 8 seconds. A very minor northwest swell up to 4 feet at 12 seconds will start to build around Sunday night through next week. /JHW



FIRE WEATHER
Breezy to gusty westerly and northwesterlies breezes today and Sunday. Afternoon humidity in the 20's to low 30's percent in eastern Trinity, eastern Mendocino and Lake counties. The combined of gusty west-nortwest winds yield in elevated fire weather conditions in zones 264, 277 and 283 through Sunday. Risk for small and fast spreading grass or brush fires will increase. Overnight RH recoveries will be good across the valleys, with moderate humidity recoveries over the higher terrain in SE Mendocino and Lake counties.

A warming trend is forecast early through mid next week as a surface high pressure build in. Daytime RH's trend down as temperatures increase next week into mid 90's.

Wednesday through late next week models are in a good agreement on a series of shortwaves moving across the area. At this point, ensembles remain dry with temperatures few degrees colder.
However, low afternoon RH's values and enhancing west'northwest winds will promote elevated fire weather conditions in Trinity, interior Mendocino and Lake counties. ZVS



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 9 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475.