Monday, April19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fairlee, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:48PM Monday April 19, 2021 5:42 PM EDT (21:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:23AMMoonset 1:02AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 440 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 439 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will pass by to the south today. High pressure will develop to the south tonight through Tuesday night ahead of a strong cold front that will approach from the northwest. The cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday and high pressure will build to the south and west through late in the week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed Tuesday into Wednesday, and a gale warning may be needed later Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairlee, MD
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location: 39.29, -76.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 191956 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 356 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper-level wave will push across the Mid-Atlantic through the overnight, with a weak cold front crossing the region in its wake. A brief stint of high pressure will lead to a quiet Tuesday before a surface low organizes to our west. This low will pull a strong cold front across the region on Wednesday. High pressure will build eastward behind this system for the remainder of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Mid-level trough will continue to work its way through the region this evening. Strong shortwave energy can be found south of the Delmarva Peninsula, and that is where the bulk of the showers are currently falling. However, with some more shortwave energy passing through the northern half of the region, additional showers are beginning to fire up over western and central New York and eastern Pennsylvania.

Of note, dew point depressions are on the order of 20-25 degrees, mainly from around Philadelphia north, covering most of New Jersey except for the far southeast portions, as well as the northern Philadelphia suburbs, the Lehigh Valley, and the southern Poconos. So it will be fairly hard for measurable precip to reach the ground, given how dry it is. Will add a chance for sprinkles, and will keep PoPs capped at slight chance/low chance.

MU CAPE values are currently minimal, generally upwards of 100-250 J/kg. With additional diurnal heating, those value could creep up a bit. Will keep a slight chance for thunder in the forecast, but not expecting much more than a rumble or two, and possibly some small hail, given how steep the low level lapse rates are.

High pressure settles over the Mid-Atlantic late tonight, and light return flow sets up. Dew points will creep up during the overnight hours. Some patchy fog may develop in the pre-dawn hours, especially in Delmarva and southeast New Jersey. However, there may be enough high clouds lingering over the area to keep fog from forming, so will leave it out of the forecast for now.

Tuesday will be the nicest day of the week. With high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast, strong WAA will be underway with a west to southwest flow. Could be a bit breezy, especially going into the afternoon, with winds generally 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Highs will generally be in the lower 70s throughout.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The potential for severe weather continues Wednesday.

A potent shortwave trough will dive southeast across the Midwest Tuesday night. A strengthening 250 mb jet just to our southwest will work in unison with this wave to promote strong cyclogenesis across the central Appalachians into Wednesday morning. With rather impressive PVA ahead of this wave and the aforementioned upper-level forcing, the large scale forcing will most certainly be in place for this feature. The northern origins of the trailing surface high from central Canada will usher in a seasonable cold airmass, which is expected to provide efficient surface lift along the cold front.

While instability isn't expected to be noticeably impressive, strong low-level (speed) shear will support the development of linear storm features. Hi-res guidance is currently forecasting 50-70 knots of 0- 3 km shear. Combined with up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, this will be more than sufficient to support the development of linear storm segments. Completely agree with the 3 km NAM in the forecast of a long QLCS feature moving across the entire CWA early Wednesday afternoon. Waiting as we move into the HRRR and ARW time frames for added confidence but there is good agreement amongst the global guidance so don't expect significant change at this point.

A few showers and a rumble or two of thunder is possible, especially along and north of I-78 Wednesday morning. The more clearing that occurs, the better the surface heating and larger the instability that can be reached. A slower movement of the surface low, with a longer period for strengthening would likely lead to a greater severe threat as we would sit in the warm sector longer. This is one facet that remains to be worked out so to speak. Climatologically, small hail is possible with any of the storms, but strong to damaging winds will be the main risk with these storms. A strong 850 mb LLJ will advect ample moisture ahead of the front, which will lead to locally heavy downpours. Forward motion of the front should preclude widespread flooding, but can't rule out localized urban and poor drainage flooding with half to locally one inch of rainfall. Highs Wednesday will warm into the upper 60s to the south, with low to mid 60s north of I-78. Clearer skies will lead to warmer highs.

Temperatures will plummet behind the front with lows in the low to mid 30s by Thursday morning. A breezy night behind the front should prohibit frost, but went ahead and added patchy frost into areas where the frost-freeze program has started. More of a freeze potential as wind will work against frost potential.

A much quieter and cooler day Thursday with highs in the upper 40s north to lower 50s south with partly cloudy skies. It will remain quite breezy with westerly winds gusts from 20 to 30 mph.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. The weather pattern looks to stay fairly busy through the long term as one system will continue to depart early in the period with a brief respite of fair weather Friday into Saturday before the next potential system arrives for later in the weekend. In terms of the details, it will remain a bit breezy Thursday night through Friday as deep low pressure continues to lift north through Atlantic Canada while high pressure sets up to our south. The airmass over the region moderates though so Friday looks to see seasonable temperatures under mainly sunny skies.

Friday night into Saturday, high pressure moves off the east coast as an upper level trough moves in to our west with the next low developing near the SE CONUS. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding how this system tracks with the ECMWF and to a lesser degree the GFS have it moving up the coast and bringing widespread rain and gusty winds late Saturday, Saturday night, and into Sunday. Meanwhile the latest GEM is much weaker and surpressed and has the system missing us to the south. Didn't deviate much from the NBM so am forecasting likely POPs for the majority of the area Saturday night which is when, according to current indications, the system look to make its closest pass.

The aformentioned system should move out by late Sunday with dry weather looking to start next week.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Into this evening . Generally VFR. However, some heavier SHRA may result in brief MVFR conditions at KMIV/KACY. A passing SHRA possible at the other terminals, but not likely. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder as well, but will not include in the TAF. W to SW winds 10 kt or less. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . VFR. Some patchy fog possible, especially at KMIV/KACY/KRDG, after 09Z. However, confidence is too low to warrant including in the TAF. SW winds 5 kt or less. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . VFR. SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. High confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday . VFR initially with sub-VFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. A return to VFR near or after 00Z from west to east as a cold front crosses the region. Southwest winds from 10 to 15 knots with gusts from 25 to 30 knots. Winds turn westerly behind the front. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . VFR with westerly winds from 15 to 20 knots and gusts from 25 to 30 knots. High confidence.

Thursday night through Friday . Mainly VFR with W/NW winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible both Thursday evening and again by around midday Friday through the afternoon. High confidence.

Friday night through Saturday . Mainly VFR with west winds around 5 knots Friday night becoming SW 5 to 10 knots Saturday. The next system could arrive very late in the day or at night bringing rain and associated restrictions. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions on tap for tonight through Tuesday. Some VSBY restrictions possible, mainly over the DE and southern NJ ocean waters, in showers into this evening. Isolated lightning strikes also possible, but not likely. SW winds 10-15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt will develop Tuesday afternoon. Seas generally at or below 3 feet.

Outlook .

Wednesday . SCA conditions developing into the afternoon as southwesterly winds gust from 25 to 30 knots. Seas from 3 to 5 feet.

Wednesday night and Thursday . Gale force wind gusts likely out of the northwest. Seas from 3 to 5 feet.

Thursday night through Friday . SCA conditions likely Thursday night into early Friday before winds subside below SCA levels by late Friday.

Friday night through Saturday . Conditions should be mainly tranquil on the seas through this period with Sub SCA winds/seas. However the next system could bring increasing winds and waves by Saturday night.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . MPS Short Term . Davis Long Term . Fitzsimmons Aviation . Davis/Fitzsimmons/MPS Marine . Davis/Fitzsimmons/MPS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 6 mi61 min SW 7 G 8 1010.7 hPa
FSNM2 18 mi55 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 57°F 1010.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 19 mi55 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 57°F 1010.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 21 mi55 min SSE 8 G 12 58°F 54°F1009.8 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi55 min 55°F 48°F
44063 - Annapolis 26 mi43 min 12 G 16 53°F 56°F1012.3 hPa (-0.9)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 26 mi55 min E 6 G 8 58°F 59°F1010.4 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi55 min S 6 G 7 59°F 59°F1010.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi43 min S 8 G 8.9 53°F 55°F1012 hPa (-0.8)48°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi55 min SSW 7 G 8.9 59°F 1010.2 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 38 mi55 min 61°F 58°F1009.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 43 mi55 min S 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 55°F1010.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi73 min WSW 5.1 59°F 1010 hPa48°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD12 mi45 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F46°F60%1010.5 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi48 minSE 810.00 miFair59°F48°F68%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW5CalmS6S8S6SW8S6
1 day agoNW4NW6CalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3S4NE3SW5NW7--S9SW7Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Worton Creek entrance, Maryland
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Worton Creek entrance
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Mon -- 01:29 AM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:39 PM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:14 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.21.21.10.90.70.50.50.50.70.91.31.51.71.71.61.41.210.80.60.50.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Mon -- 02:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:02 AM EDT     -0.33 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:22 AM EDT     0.78 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.10.40.60.80.70.60.3-0-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.2

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