Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairlee, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:51PM Friday August 23, 2019 7:01 AM EDT (11:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:19PMMoonset 12:57PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 456 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Rest of the overnight..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Numerous showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 456 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach the waters tonight, then stall over the carolinas on Saturday. High pressure will then settle over the area Saturday into Sunday. Small craft advisories are possible over the southern waters Friday night through Sunday .


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairlee, MD
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location: 39.29, -76.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230749
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
349 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will continue slowly push to our south today and
move to our south over the weekend as high pressure builds to
our north through early next week. The high will try to nose
itself down the east coast, but not fully make its way into our
area. This high will retreat north and eastward by Tuesday and
Wednesday as an area of low lifts northward offshore of the east
coast and a cold front approaches from the west around the
middle to end of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A weak midlevel perturbation is moving through the area at this
time, which is generating enough cooling aloft to allow showers
to develop along the increasingly nebulous surface front, which
is located... Somewhere... In eastern pa and and northern central
nj. Overnight deterministic models appeared to place the front
too far south, likely owing to complicating effects from
antecedent convection. Furthermore, hi-res models are struggling
mightily with the showers in the CWA now. As such, several
amendments to the forecast have been required based on radar
trends the past few hours. Main adjustments early this morning
are to maintain high- chance pops along a reading to trenton to
morristown corridor, gradually shifting this south while
lowering pops as the perturbation moves east of the area.

Nevertheless, the residual effects of these showers will be
thicker cloud cover for longer north of the front, and this has
required lowering temperatures several degrees today (generally
near north of the i-76 corridor). Additionally, as subsequent
vorticity maxima move east along the frontal boundary,
additional showers cannot be ruled but should become confined to
areas south of i-78 by afternoon and south of i-76 by late in
the day.

Areas near and to the south of the front will still see some
latent instability and will be in much closer proximity to the
strongest large-scale and mesoscale ascent. A fairly strong
perturbation will approach the area this afternoon. Anticipating
storms will develop near the mason-dixon line (and southward),
riding to the east of the perturbation through the evening
hours. Hi-res models are generating quite a bit of convection
from DELMARVA southward this afternoon. Strongest instability
will be south of the cwa, so the best chances of severe storms
will be south of the area as well. Nevertheless, cannot rule out
the potential entirely. Additionally, stronger storms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, though not
expecting much of a flooding threat today.

The potential exists for showers (and maybe an isolated storm
or two) to reach as far north as the i-76 corridor, but this
will depend entirely on the progress of the front today. Model
trends are a little slower in general, but there will be
complicating effects from the clouds showers early this morning
(among other factors). Expect adjustments to the forecast as the
details on frontal placement and the evolution of this
afternoon's vort MAX become clearer.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Storms may be ongoing in southern portions of the CWA during
the evening hours, but as the attendant perturbation moves
offshore, the storms will move southeast of the area during the
overnight hours. Hi-res simulations are indicating the potential
for storm totals over an inch in portions of DELMARVA (and
possibly far southern new jersey). Cannot rule out a rogue
severe storm or nuisance instance of flooding, but these chances
appear fairly remote as the stronger instability lift will be
well south of the area by this time frame.

Drier air will filter into the area overnight, with sky cover
improving north to south with time. Lows will be considerably
cooler tonight (probably by about 10 degrees, give or take) as a
combination of cold advection and some radiational cooling take
hold.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Drier and cooler conditions start the long term period, before
warmer weather and greater chances of precipitation return by
the middle of next week.

As we start the weekend, Saturday is expected to be a very
pleasant day. High pressure will be building to our north across
eastern canada, with our area on the far southern edge. This
will keep easterly flow across the area, and as a trough low
aloft moves across the area, temperatures will cool to near or
below normal. Dry weather is expected, with mainly
afternoon evening clouds due to the trough low moving overhead.

However, as we move into Sunday and Monday, the easterly flow
will continue as high pressure builds a little farther southward
across new england. The high will try to nose its way down the
east coat toward the mid atlantic region during this time as
well. Guidance continues to indicate precipitation developing
across the area during this period, so we will have a slight
chance of showers Sunday through Monday. However, it may just
end up being more cloudy rather than rainy as some stratocumulus
clouds could develop with the persistent easterly flow.

Regardless, if it does rain, it is expected to be light a pw
values are mostly an inch or less.

As we move into Tuesday through Thursday, unsettled weather
could return to the area. An area of low pressure is forecast to
be lifting northward offshore of the east coast Tuesday into
Tuesday night, while a cold front approaches from the west
during the day Wednesday into Thursday. There are some timing
differences with these systems between the GFS and ecmwf.

However, there will be an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms starting Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday,
and possibly continuing into Thursday, depending on how fast
the cold front moves through.

Aviation 08z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MainlyVFR, but there is a chance of more storms
near south of phl, especially during the afternoon.

Additionally, some residual showers may produce a period of sub-
vfr conditions this morning in their proximity, especially for
rdg abe ttn. This latter scenario cannot be ruled out for the
philly terminals as well, though the threat is lower here. Winds
becoming northwest or north around 10 kts.

Tonight... MainlyVFR with light northwest or north winds. Any
evening showers storms in DELMARVA and southern new jersey
should move southeast away from the terminals by the overnight
hours.

Outlook...

Saturday-Saturday night...VFR conditions expected. Winds
generally northeast 5-10 knots.

Sunday... MostlyVFR conditions expected. Winds remain northeast
5-10 knots, with gusts 15-20 knots possible.

Sunday night-Tuesday... MVFR ceilings may begin to develop
overnight Sunday and continue into Monday for some areas. Winds
remain east to northeast 5-10 knots Sunday night through Monday
night before shifting to southeast on Tuesday. Gusts 15-20 knots
possible at times.

Marine
Sub-advisory winds seas are expected through the period, with
north to northeast winds 5 to 15 kts through this evening
increasing to 10 to 20 kts overnight. Seas will generally be 2
to 4 feet.

Once again, there is a chance of storms today, generally for
delaware bay and the atlantic waters south of atlantic city.

Locally stronger gusts and higher waves should be expected in
their proximity.

Outlook...

Friday-Saturday night... Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels, although winds could gust around 20 knots at
times.

Sunday-Monday... Winds may approach advisory levels and gust
around 25 knots at times. However, seas are forecast to build to
around 5 feet, so a small craft advisory may be needed.

Monday night-Tuesday... Winds may drop below advisory levels and
gust around 20 knots at times. However, seas are forecast to
build to around 5 feet, so a small craft advisory may be needed.

Rip currents...

a northerly wind of 5 to 15 mph is expected today. Breaking waves
around 2 to 3 feet are likely along with a medium-period southerly
swell. A low risk of rip currents is forecast.

A long-duration northeast to east wind is expected for the weekend
and into the early part of the new week. As a result, we are
anticipating a prolonged period with an enhanced risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents from Saturday through at least
Tuesday.

Tides coastal flooding
A prolonged northeast to east flow is expected Saturday through
at least Tuesday. This persistent onshore fetch, combined with
increasing astronomical tides due to an approaching new moon on
Thursday will likely lead to increasing coastal water levels.

Some guidance is already indicating that minor coastal flooding
is becoming more likely, possibly starting as early as Sunday,
but more likely Monday and Tuesday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Robertson
aviation... Cms robertson
marine... Cms robertson
tides coastal flooding... Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 6 mi49 min N 12 G 14 76°F 84°F1014.6 hPa
FSNM2 18 mi55 min N 11 G 13 74°F 1014.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 19 mi43 min N 8.9 G 12 75°F 1014.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 21 mi49 min NNE 9.9 G 13 75°F 83°F1014 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi49 min 76°F 76°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 26 mi43 min 75°F 1013.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi49 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 85°F1014.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi61 min NW 5.1 G 6 75°F 83°F1015 hPa (+1.2)73°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi55 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 72°F 80°F1014.6 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 38 mi49 min 73°F 84°F1014.1 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 42 mi151 min NNW 1 70°F 1014 hPa70°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 43 mi49 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 75°F 84°F1015.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi151 min Calm 73°F 1013 hPa70°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD12 mi67 minN 010.00 miOvercast72°F69°F94%1014.8 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi66 minNW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F73°F100%1014.9 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD22 mi67 minno data mi75°F70°F84%1014.3 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD23 mi81 minWNW 310.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4CalmNW3W5CalmW7----W3--S8S7SW6S7------------------Calm
1 day agoCalmSW6S11W8SW9S9SW9----SW12SW14S10S9SW3------------------SW4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE4NE4SE4S5--CalmSE5SE5S5--S3------------------Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Worton Creek entrance, Maryland
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Worton Creek entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:51 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:58 AM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:37 PM EDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.822.121.81.61.41.21.111.11.21.41.51.51.41.20.90.70.50.50.60.81.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 11:57 AM EDT     0.30 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:35 PM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.40-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.20.10.20.30.20.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.20.50.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.