Sunday, September20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fairlee, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:06PM Sunday September 20, 2020 6:41 AM EDT (10:41 UTC) Moonrise 9:31AMMoonset 8:22PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 437 Am Edt Sun Sep 20 2020
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 437 Am Edt Sun Sep 20 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Canadian high pressure will build from the great lakes toward the northeast and middle atlantic through Monday as hurricane teddy swirls northward well offshore. The high will shift south of the region later this week. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairlee, MD
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location: 39.29, -76.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 201024 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 624 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Sprawling high pressure over the Northeast will persist through Monday night before becoming reestablished in the central and southern Appalachians by midweek. A weak cold front will move through the Northeast on Thursday night and Friday. High pressure will build back into the region next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 615 am update: Temperatures have dropped to the middle/upper 30s in many of the more sheltered locations north and west of the urban corridor and even in portions of the Pine Barrens this morning. In general, this is in line with the forecast, though some wide variations caused by microscale phenomena should be expected through 9 am. No changes to the forecast at this time. Previous discussion follows.

Frost advisory is in good shape, with several surface observations indicating temperatures near to a few degrees above freezing with calm winds and high humidity.

A fairly potent midlevel vort max will dig southeastward through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today, but predecessor high pressure centered this morning in southern Quebec will prevent any moisture advection from occurring. Thus, another mostly sunny day is expected in our area with northerly to northeasterly breezes on the southeast side of the broad surface high. With continued cold advection (reinforced by the passing shortwave trough), maximum temperatures today will be quite similar to those seen on Saturday.

Conditions tonight will be nearly identical to those seen early this morning. Winds are expected to decouple quickly after sunset, and temperatures will drop to similar values. Another round of frost is expected near/north of I-80, potentially as far south as the I-78 corridor. Will let the day shift determine timing/placement of any frost advisories for tonight, but once again, used a cold-model consensus blend for tonight's lows given the typical warm bias in these regimes and as seen this morning.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As TC Teddy churns northward in the western Atlantic early this week, high pressure will gradually shift southwestward from the Northeast to the central/southern Appalachians through the period as a high-amplitude midlevel ridge migrates into the eastern U.S. After another mostly sunny day with breezy northeast winds on Monday, surface winds will switch to the northwest and west on Tuesday. These winds are favorable for some downsloping, so after another chilly morning with more frost potential in the northern CWA, highs on Tuesday should rise several degrees from those seen Sunday and Monday. Lows on Tuesday night should also be considerably warmer, with little potential for frost.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The unusually lengthy period of dry weather in the Northeast will continue for the rest of the week, but the pattern may get a little more active by the weekend.

As Teddy (undergoing extratropical transition) races northeast into and east of the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday and Thursday, high pressure in the eastern U.S. will begin to shift offshore. Weak return flow will set up in the Mid-Atlantic underneath broad midlevel ridging. Expect quiet conditions and warm temperatures as a result for this period, with highs likely a few degrees above seasonal averages. Low temperatures may also warm to several degrees above averages, and may be warmer than the current forecast suggests if warm/moist advection are somewhat stronger than forecast.

Models begin to diverge on Friday as a northern-stream perturbation moves into the Northeast. A big complicating factor is its interaction with current TC Beta, with the 00z ECMWF indicating such interaction will lead to a mostly dry frontal passage on Friday as residual effects of the surface high in the western Atlantic precludes sufficient moisture/lift. However, the remnants of Beta then move slowly northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity during the weekend as a large-scale trough amplifies upstream in the central U.S. Meanwhile, the 00z GFS indicates a significant perturbation ejects from Beta but is shunted south of the area, racing well offshore by early weekend. Precipitation with the cold front via the northern- stream trough generally remains north of the area, keeping the region dry through much of the weekend before the large-scale trough in central Canada and the northern U.S. lifts the remaining midlevel perturbation associated with Beta northeast early the following week.

Notably, the ECMWF has had a far more consistent depiction of the pattern evolution during this period than the GFS, and with this in mind, I did trend PoPs upward on Saturday. More significant precipitation will likely hold off until just beyond the forecast period, but given high uncertainty with the forecast by this point, feel slight-chance PoPs are warranted with the increasing indications of a pretty significant pattern change after this week.

Temperatures on Friday and Saturday appear to be near to slightly above seasonal averages, with the expectation that trough amplification upstream will lead to a period of warm/moist advection quickly after frontal passage late in the week.

AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR with northeast winds around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR with light north to northeast winds. High confidence.

Outlook .

Monday through Thursday: VFR. Northeast winds on Monday becoming northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday becoming southwest on Thursday. Speeds during the day generally 5 to 15 kt (occasional gusts to 20 kt possible) and lighter and likely more variable at night. High confidence.

MARINE. Small craft advisory conditions continue on the Atlantic waters, with seas generally 5 to 7 feet early this morning (slightly lower off the New Jersey coast). Seas will build today to 7 to 10 feet by late afternoon and possibly up to 12 feet off the southern New Jersey and Delaware coasts by tonight. Northeast winds of 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt will increase later today to 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, likely continuing through the overnight hours.

For Delaware Bay, conditions are expected to remain generally below advisory thresholds through tonight. However, northeast winds of 15 to 20 kt or so are likely, with perhaps an uptick tonight. An advisory cannot be ruled out for tonight.

Outlook .

Monday through Tuesday . For the Atlantic waters, seas 7-10+ feet are likely on Monday and will only gradually subside on Tuesday (still remaining 5 to 9 feet). Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt on Monday will likely become northwest on Tuesday and slowly diminish. A small craft advisory is in effect. For Delaware Bay, northeast winds 10 to 20 kt are expected Monday and Monday night, transitioning to northwest on Tuesday.

Tuesday night and Wednesday . Advisory-level seas expected on the Atlantic waters, though they should gradually subside to below advisory thresholds by late Wednesday. The small craft advisory will likely be extended in future forecasts. Northwest winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Wednesday night and Thursday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected.

Rip currents .

A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for all of the Atlantic beaches of New Jersey and Delaware, with a very long-period swell of 5 to 8 feet expected in the surf zone through the period. Breaking waves are likely to be dangerous, causing localized beach erosion as well. A high surf advisory is in effect through Monday night. The elevated rip-current risk will likely last through at least Tuesday, with high surf expected to subside by then.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Another round of minor tidal flooding is expected late this morning into early this afternoon as high astronomical tides associated with the new moon this past Thursday combine with persistent/strong onshore flow on the Atlantic coast. The strong northeast winds will likely favor the southern New Jersey and Delaware coasts and the southern shore of Delaware Bay for coastal flooding. We have extended the coastal flood advisory for these areas through mid-afternoon (expanded to include coastal portions of Atlantic County).

The subsequent high tide Sunday night will likely feature mainly spotty minor flooding, as this high tide is the lower of the two daily tidal cycles. However, another round of more widespread minor flooding is possible on Monday, as onshore flow continues with building seas associated with Teddy. Additional advisories are probable, especially for the Atlantic coast and lower portions of Delaware Bay.

No flooding is currently expected on the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay, and only spotty minor flooding is currently forecast for the tidal Delaware River and upper portions of Delaware Bay through Monday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ054-055-061- 062. NJ . Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NJZ001-007. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ014-024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ022>025. DE . High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for DEZ004. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for DEZ002>004. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . CMS Short Term . CMS Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS Marine . CMS Tides/Coastal Flooding . CMS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 6 mi60 min E 2.9 G 4.1 52°F 69°F1030 hPa
FSNM2 18 mi54 min NNE 15 G 16 53°F 1029.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 19 mi54 min NNE 9.9 G 12 53°F 1029.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 21 mi54 min NNE 7 G 8.9 51°F 74°F1029.7 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi54 min 60°F 42°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 26 mi54 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 72°F1029.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi54 min 71°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi42 min NNE 17 G 20 59°F 72°F1030.1 hPa (+0.5)37°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi54 min NNE 8 G 9.9 55°F 63°F1029.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 38 mi54 min 72°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 43 mi54 min 53°F 1029.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi132 min NNW 1 1028 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD12 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miFair40°F39°F99%1030.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalm--CalmW5W6SW3CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN3N3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Worton Creek entrance, Maryland
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Worton Creek entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:08 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:30 AM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:52 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:16 PM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.71.310.70.60.70.91.31.71.91.91.71.30.90.60.30.30.40.71.31.82.22.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:57 AM EDT     -1.02 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:02 AM EDT     0.76 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:57 PM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:51 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.9-1-0.9-0.6-0.10.30.60.80.70.4-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.40.10.611.11.10.80.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.