Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kingvale, CA

DISCUSSION

Primary concerns for today will be gusty winds (gusts 30-40 mph)
with low humidity contributing to critical fire weather conditions and recreation impacts. A passing trough is kicking off these winds across western Nevada and portions of the eastern Sierra this afternoon into the evening, and will also pop up a few showers and thunderstorms near the CA/NV/OR border. Thunderstorm probabilities remain relatively low at 5-10% and shows the majority of the storms in southern OR through this evening.

In the wake of the trough, Tuesday will be a relatively quiet day with lighter winds and typical June temperatures. Wednesday and Thursday a quick ridge arrives across the Sierra and western Nevada bringing a boost up in the temperatures for a couple of days.
Blended guidance shows highs peaking in the mid-upper 90s for western NV and NE CA valleys, while Sierra communities reach the mid 80s. We will be running around 10 degrees above average with HeatRisk rising to moderate levels in lower elevations.

Following this quick heat snap we're slated for another round of stronger, gusty winds as the next trough approaches the region.
The trough will usher in strong winds, as well as a significant cooldown (15-20 degree drop!) for the weekend. Widespread gusty winds 40-50 mph will be possible with another bout of fire weather concerns, recreation and aviation impacts. Precipitation potential with this incoming trough is pretty barren with the majority of the moisture across far NW CA and OR. A few showers may reach as far south as Susanville (5-10%) on Saturday, but we will be at a loss for any meaningful precipitation as this trough swings through. This trough will be cold enough to drop the snow levels a touch, so the Warner Mountains may see a touch of snow early Saturday.

Plan on much cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend, with highs ranging from the mid 70s-lower 80s for lower elevations and 60s for Sierra communities and areas near the OR border, which would represent about a 20-25 degree drop from Wednesday-Thursday's heat.

-Edan

AVIATION

Stronger winds return today with the passage of a dry cold front, especially for western NV terminals southward to KMMH. Sustained west/southwest winds 15-20 kts with gusts around 30 kts in the late morning will turn slowly northwest during the day. Periods of LLWS are likely through the early afternoon, with mountain wave turbulence continuing through this evening. Much lighter winds are expected for Tuesday, with the next period of increased winds likely for Thursday-Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through at least midweek. MJD

FIRE WEATHER

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect this afternoon and evening for the Sierra Front of far western NV southward to northern Mono County, and the Lahontan Basin. Poor humidity recoveries this morning (mainly 20-30%) will already set the stage for several hours of critical fire weather conditions, when winds increase to southwest-west 15-25 mph with peak gusts 35-45 mph, while afternoon humidity drops to the 5-13% range in the warned areas (driest in western NV). Areas adjacent to the warning, especially Pershing and southern Mono counties, could also see similar dry and windy conditions. Fuel intel for those areas confirmed that some areas of fine fuels are well below average, but for the most part a lot of the mid to higher elevations are nearing peak green- up, so the live fuel moisture would not support fire growth.

There remains a 5-10% chance for showers or thunderstorms in far northeast CA-northwest NV between 3 and 7 PM today, which could produce erratic wind gusts up to 35 mph and a few lightning strikes.

Our next period to watch will be Thursday into the weekend, with Friday showing the highest potential for strong wind gusts and low humidity. With widespread wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and ongoing dry conditions, there will be several hours of critical fire weather concerns for a large portion of western Nevada and the lower elevations of northeastern CA.

MJD/EKL


REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-421-429.

Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-003-004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening CAZ073.