Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 11:51 AM   Moonset 2:17 AM

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FXUS65 KREV 161942 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1242 PM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS

Dry and warm spring weather continues with afternoon temperatures rising into the 60s for Sierra communities and 70s for lower valleys this week, except areas near the Oregon border will see a brief cooling with north breezes Wednesday. Some valleys could see highs push above 80 degrees this weekend. A slight cooling trend with shower chances may return next week.

DISCUSSION

Key points:

* Warm spring temperatures starting today will continue through the upcoming week. Only exception is a few degrees of cooling with north breezes for areas near the OR border Wednesday.

* Dry pattern prevails through early next week, with only a slim (less than 10%) chance for a few stray afternoon showers Friday- Saturday.

Other than areas of mid-high level clouds streaming in from the northwest today, we'll see the next notable jump in temperatures with highs pushing into the 70-75 degree range, with lower 60s for Sierra communities and areas near the OR border. This warming trend will take a brief pause Wednesday in response to a trough moving across the northern Rockies, as the fringe effects shift surface winds to a more northerly direction. For higher elevation ridges, west-northwest wind gusts could reach 50 mph tonight into Wednesday morning. From Thursday through the weekend, the ridge of high pressure currently off the west coast will slowly edge inland, eventually pushing eastward across the Great Basin this weekend. This will lead to gradual warming each day with highs peaking on Sunday--lower 80s becoming more likely for warmer western NV valleys, and some Sierra communities coming close to 70 degrees. This warmup will accelerate the melting of the Sierra snowpack and produce faster cold flows on area rivers and streams.
Use caution and wear gear that provides protection from hypothermia if planning recreation in these waterways.

While overall ridging is projected from late week into the weekend, a few of the guidance scenarios introduce weak disturbances within the upper level flow, mainly Friday and Saturday. While the most likely scenario would just be afternoon cumulus buildups, a few stray showers could pop up either day in some favored convergence areas such as the eastern Sierra in Mono County, and far northeast CA-northwest NV. This shower potential remains below 10% probability.

Next week, ECS/GEFS meteograms continue to show modest precip signals as a potential trough approaches around mid week. While this could suggest more activity in the weather pattern, most of these scenarios keep precip amounts on the lighter side with only small increases in winds. Temperatures would also come down from Sunday's peak, but any cooldown should be less dramatic compared to previous weather systems earlier this month. MJD

AVIATION

Overall VFR flight conditions will prevail for the upcoming week.
Patchy FZFG could return to KTRK early AM Wednesday, but should be shallower with more limited coverage and shorter duration compared to this morning, as a weak weather system brushing by to our north brings increased high cloud cover along with W-NW winds across ridges (FL100 gusts up to 45 kts). For the main terminals, surface winds W-NW 10-15 kts this afternoon/evening will shift N-NE on Wednesday as a cold front drops southward through the Great Basin. MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

Sacramento #4
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Tue -- 03:19 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:20 AM PDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:48 AM PDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:57 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:42 PM PDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:44 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:09 PM PDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
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Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

Clarksburg #4
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Tue -- 02:11 AM PDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:19 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:18 AM PDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:33 PM PDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:58 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:44 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:39 PM PDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clarksburg #4, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

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