Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fairton, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A frontal boundary remains draped from low pressure over the Great Lakes, through the Ohio Valley, and into the Delmarva Peninsula.
That low slowly tracks east tonight and will be over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Sunday morning, then will approach the Mid- Atlantic late Sunday. Several waves of showers associated with mid- level shortwave energy will spin off ahead of that low.

Unsettled conditions on tap through the period, though it will not be a washout. The first wave of rainfall is moving through the northern half of the forecast area, and the bulk of the rain should taper off by this evening.

The next wave of showers will approach Delmarva by this evening.
Since Delmarva is south of the frontal boundary, there is some instability with SB CAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, and SPC has a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather. PWATs are over 2 inches, and WPC has a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall. Some stronger storms will be capable of stronger winds gusts and locally heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding.
This threat should end by midnight or so.

Overnight, cloudy and foggy conditions continue. Lows tonight will be in the 60s.

Another wave of showers approaches late tonight and may pass through the region late tonight through Sunday morning.

Cloudy, damp, and cool conditions continue on Sunday. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s. Another wave of showers will approach late Sunday.

The Mines Sprung Wildfire in Wharton State Forest in Shamong Township, NJ, continues, though progress has been made in containing it. As of 2:30 pm, the fire is 5000 acres and 60% contained. With east to northeast winds, smoke from this fire will spread inland towards Philadelphia and Wilmington. With an inversion developing overnight once again, smoke will get trapped across portions of southern New Jersey, and possibly as far back as the I-95 corridor in the Philadelphia metro area and northern Delaware. Air Quality alerts remain in effect until midnight tonight.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Little change in the forecast has been made for the Sunday night and Monday period as the stalled frontal boundary be displaced well south of the region. A weak wave of low pressure will ride along the boundary Sunday night into Monday causing a period of light rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm to occur (20-40%), especially to the south of Philadelphia. For areas north of Philadelphia, perhaps a spotty shower shall occur, but largely should remain dry (PoPs less than 20%). The boundary will gradually start to work its way back north Monday night and more so on Tuesday and Tuesday night as it will then be located within the vicinity of the southern Delmarva. Another weak disturbance will ride along the boundary yielding another period for some rain showers and isolated thunder to occur (PoPs 20-40%) across the entire region as the front is in closer proximity to the area.

All in all, unsettled weather conditions are to continue through the beginning of the week, but will not be a washout by any means as there will be breaks in between rounds of precipitation. However, it will remain mostly cloudy with limited sunshine throughout the period. Highs will mainly be in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Monday with mid to upper 70s on Tuesday. Lows will remain uniform mainly in the 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
An upper level ridge will be located over the Southeast US on Wednesday as a trough develops over the Great Lakes region on Thursday. This pattern will shift east on Friday with the base of the upper trough located over the East Coast. At the surface, the 'stalled' frontal boundary will lift north as a warm front on Wednesday across our area. Surface high pressure will be located near Bermuda where it will persist through the end of the week. Low pressure will also be tracking through the Great Lakes on Thursday tracking and into New England on Friday with a cold front trailing to the southwest, crossing through late in the week.

For Wednesday, we'll begin to see the beginning of a considerable warm-up as the warm front lifts north of the area. Some spotty thunderstorms may occur due to the combination of the passage of the front and diurnal heating. Otherwise, attention then turns to the cold front that will approach the area on Thursday into Thursday night. Forcing does appear to be quite strong with the deepening trough, so at this point it does seem plausible for there to be at the very least some strong thunderstorms around Thursday afternoon and evening. This is supported quite well by the machine learning guidance by UCAR/NCAR which has a targeted area of severe weather potential over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Obviously, this is still 5-6 days away, so a lot can change between now and then.
Regardless, the front will likely bring some showers and thunderstorms to the area as it crosses through. Improving weather should return by Friday and into next weekend as high pressure returns.

In terms of temperatures, above normal temperatures are expected throughout the period, with the warmest day of the week appearing to be Thursday where highs will be around/in excess of 90 degrees across the Coastal Plain. With the area being located well into the warm sector (and a very muggy airmass in place), this will likely result in heat indices in excess of 95 degrees in spots. Suppose if this holds true, our first set of heat headlines may be warranted.

AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...Generally MVFR/IFR CIGs , though there may be some brief VFR CIGs from time to time. -SHRA and BR will reduce VSBYs to MVFR/IFR. There is a wildfire in the Pine Barrens of southern NJ, and smoke from that fire will spread west towards KPHL/KILG/KMIV. VSBY restrictions in FU are possible, though restrictions may be more likely due to BR. A few TSRA possible towards KILG, but any lightning will be brief and isolated. NE winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence overall, low confidence on timing.

Tonight...IFR/LIFR CIGs . MVFR/IFR VSBY in BR. Some -SHRA possible late. A few TSRA possible this evening towards KILG, but any lightning will be brief and isolated. E winds 5 to 10 kt.
Moderate confidence.

Sunday...IFR CIGs , possibly lifting to MVFR late in the day.
MVFR VSBYs in the morning, giving way to VFR VSBYs in the afternoon. E winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday night...Primarily sub-VFR conditions expected with several rounds of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms possible.

Wednesday through Thursday...Primarily VFR expected with at times periods of sub-VFR conditions possible in thunderstorms.

MARINE
E-NE at 10 to 15 kt may result in winds gusting to 25 kt from time to time late tonight along with seas around 5 feet on the NJ ocean waters. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions.

VSBY restrictions in showers and fog from time to time.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...No marine headlines are expected.
Winds will generally remain below 20 kt with seas of 2-4 feet.
Several rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday.

Rip Currents...

For Sunday and Monday, winds will be out of the northeast and nearly perpendicular to shore around 10-20 MPH, with 2 to 3 foot waves within the surf zone. Multiple swell groups are expected as well, with the longest period being around 8 to 9 seconds. This will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of rip currents for all beaches both days.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
With onshore flow continuing over multiple tide cycles, water will pile up within back bays and inlets. This will result in some spotty minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic coastline for areas in Atlantic and Cape May County, New Jersey and Sussex County in Delaware. Cannot rule out some spotty minor tidal flooding within the Delaware Bay and tidal Delaware River. The overnight high tide cycle tonight looks to bring the highest tides, with slowing declining water levels getting into next week.



PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ070-071- 101>106.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ016>019- 021>025.
DE...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ001.
MD...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ012-015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ450>452.