Monday, June14, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kennedyville, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:32PM Monday June 14, 2021 10:53 PM EDT (02:53 UTC) Moonrise 8:08AMMoonset 11:05PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1038 Pm Edt Mon Jun 14 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
.severe Thunderstorm watch 273 in effect until 2 am edt Tuesday...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tstms, showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1038 Pm Edt Mon Jun 14 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A series of cold fronts will cross the region through early Wednesday. High pressure will return later in the week. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday afternoon into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kennedyville, MD
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location: 39.38, -75.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 150155 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 955 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over eastern Ontario will progress to the east with its associated cold front passing through our region tonight into early tomorrow morning. The low should then move northeastward towards Canada's Maritime Provinces on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A secondary cold front will on Wednesday evening with high pressure arriving in its wake for Thursday and Friday. Another cold front is expected to approach from the northwest on Saturday and it should pass through our region on Saturday night and could stall just to our south into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Over the last hour or so we've seen the line of storms congeal and start training over the Philly metro area. This has become the focus over the next hour or so as we have started hearing reports of flooding and some water rescues across the metro corridor. Of particular note, Frankford Creek at Frankford rose 5.5 feet in 24 minutes to go into minor flood state.

With the storms slowly moving towards the east we've been able to start clearing counties from Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270 with only the New Jersey counties south of I95 currently in a watch. Damaging winds will remain the primary threat this evening with small hail possible.

As we move towards the overnight hours showers and thunderstorms will continue across DelMarVa as the strengthening shortwave progresses through central and southern PA as evidenced on W/V. This shortwave should provide enough lift to see a line organize and tap into better forcing aloft.

Bulk shear vectors based on the RAP are in the neighborhood of 50 kts across southeastern PA and both storm motion and anvil relative flow look boundary parallel. This suggests that the linear convective features being depicted by the latest HRRR and 18z NAMNest are reasonable as approximations for how the rest of the evening will unfold.

Lapse rates will continue to steepen this evening from north to south as damaging winds continue to be the primary threat this evening. With the enhanced lapse rates, slightly better instability, stronger bulk sheer, and better forcing, the highest threat for severe weather will generally be from Trenton and south this evening.

As the earlier shift indicated, the tornado threat will be limited by the weak low- lvl wind fields (the wind field is very "mid- lvl heavy" in this event). Heavy rain is certainly a concern with any stronger convection with some signal for 1-2+ inch an hour rates, however suspect that the quick system motion will make the hydro threat secondary to the wind threat.

For Tuesday, the axis of a short wave rotating around the trough is forecast to pass overhead early on Tuesday afternoon. As a result, we will keep a chance of showers in the forecast. There will continue to be some weak instability at that time so we will also mention a slight chance of thunder.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The period from Tuesday night through Thursday will feature a fairly sharp mid level trough extending southward from Quebec over the eastern states. The main axis of this trough looks to pass through by Tuesday night resulting in mainly dry weather for this time period.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the region will be situated between high pressure over the midwest and low pressure over Atlantic Canada. This will set up a dry air advection pattern with lowering dew points and skies that will generally be mainly clear to partly cloudy. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 50s to around 60 with highs Wednesday mainly in the 70s to near 80.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday night and Thursday bringing continuing mainly clear skies with temperatures a little on the cool side for this time of year as lows will be mainly in the 50s with highs mainly in the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. The mid level trough moves out to sea Thursday night with some ridging from the southwest and west arriving overhead on Friday. Another mid level trough is expected to progress from Ontario and the Great Lakes through the northeastern states over the weekend.

At the surface, high pressure is forecast to slide off the coast Thursday night into Friday. It should remain dry Friday with readings likely getting into the lower and middle 80s at most locations as the return flow on the back side of the high begins to bring warmer air into our region.

A cold front associated with the weekend's mid level trough is anticipated to approach from the northwest on Saturday before passing through our region on Saturday night. As a result, we will mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms at that time for Saturday afternoon/evening. The front may stall near or just south of the region Sunday into Monday but forecast details remain uncertain at this time. Will keep in at least a slight chance of showers across most of the region for both days.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Thunderstorms are progressing eastward this evening with the potential for some of the to become strong to severe, and continuing through the early overnight period. Best timing is generally through 05Z, before the storms exit to the east of the terminals. Strong, gusty winds with the potential for small hail through tonight along with low MVFR to IFR cigs and vis. Conditions remain low MVFR to IFR (possibly LIFR at times) behind the storms and continuing through the rest of the night. Southwest winds ahead of the storms may become slightly more southerly before becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will start to trend more to the northwest towards morning. Moderate confidence in the overall forecast, low confidence in timing/coverage of storms.

Tuesday . MVFR/IFR conditions expected across the southern half of the region to continue through 14-15Z before improvement to VFR starts to occur for all terminals. Northwest winds around 5 to 10 knots in the morning will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots through the afternoon. Slight chance for some showers or thunderstorms but confidence to low to include even a VC at this time. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday . VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Thursday . VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Friday . VFR. Southwest wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Saturday . Mainly VFR except restrictions possible in late day showers/storms. SW winds 10 to 15 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions will prevail through Monday night with seas running 2-3 ft and southerly winds around 10-15kts. There will be potential for thunderstorms with locally strong winds tonight over all waters.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Friday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Saturday . Southwest winds will increase and could get near SCA levels by late day.

Rip currents .

The risk of dangerous rip currents is expected to remain borderline Low-Moderate through Tuesday given 2-3 ft breakers, and medium-period low amplitude shore-perpendicular easterly swell. We have issued a MODERATE risk for NJ with a LOW risk for Delaware for Tuesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons/Iovino/Meola Near Term . Deal Short Term . Fitzsimmons/Iovino Long Term . Fitzsimmons/Iovino Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Iovino/Meola Marine . Carr/Fitzsimmons/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 13 mi60 min N 8 G 15 74°F 77°F1007.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 19 mi60 min S 4.1 G 8 78°F 77°F1006.8 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 24 mi60 min 73°F 75°F1007.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 25 mi60 min NNW 11 G 12 73°F 1007.9 hPa
FSNM2 31 mi66 min SSW 13 G 24 77°F 1006.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 32 mi60 min SW 16 G 23 77°F 1006.3 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 32 mi60 min 76°F 74°F1007.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 33 mi60 min NNW 13 G 31 76°F1007.2 hPa
CPVM2 35 mi60 min 77°F 71°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 35 mi84 min S 4.1 75°F 1007 hPa71°F
44063 - Annapolis 38 mi48 min S 14 G 19 74°F 74°F1 ft1007.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 38 mi60 min SSE 6 G 11 77°F 77°F1005.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 41 mi54 min SE 22 G 25 76°F 74°F1007.1 hPa (-0.5)74°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 42 mi60 min 68°F 74°F1008.4 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD12 mi1.9 hrsNW 410.00 miFair73°F69°F89%1006.4 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD24 mi64 minSSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F73°F89%1007.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S3CalmCalmS4S5S4CalmCalmSW6SW8SW7SW6SW8SW4SE4S6SW7SW4S7S5SW5NW4N7
1 day agoS4CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmSE3CalmCalmSW3CalmW5S7S8S9S7S6S5S3S3----SE5
2 days agoNE5NE6NE5E5NE3N5N3N4NE5N6NE6NE5E8NE3NE5E5E4NE3E7E4CalmCalmSE3SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Betterton, Maryland
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Betterton
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Mon -- 12:30 AM EDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:38 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:29 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:45 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.61.51.210.80.80.91.21.622.42.62.62.42.11.71.30.90.70.70.81.11.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:06 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:49 AM EDT     -2.20 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     0.04 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:00 AM EDT     2.19 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:16 PM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:43 PM EDT     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:07 PM EDT     0.07 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:57 PM EDT     1.53 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-1.4-1.9-2.1-2.2-2-1.5-0.71.11.622.221.50.6-1-1.3-1.4-1.1-0.40.91.21.41.5

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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