Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hettick, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:44PM Thursday October 1, 2020 11:47 AM CDT (16:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:03PMMoonset 5:32AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hettick, IL
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location: 39.38, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 011634 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1134 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Friday Afternoon) Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

As expected, the morning is starting out pretty chilly. Temperatures across the region were observed in the mid-40s to around 50 near the top of the hour (09z). Surface winds have gone light and variable or calmed under clear skies. Dewpoints in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees only shows the potential for temperatures to fall at least a few more degrees through sunrise. It's definitely a jacket kind of morning, as many will be walking out the door to low to mid-40s by sunrise.

A cold front will drop down from the north between late morning and mid-afternoon to reinforce the cooler airmass. This is also accompanied by a shallow layer of mid-level moisture and a core of increasing mid-level winds. The front will push through dry with an increase in diurnal clouds, especially along and east of the Mississippi River. Deep mixing will result in afternoon gusts of 25 to 30 mph, much like yesterday. The biggest difference will be the cooler temperatures, which will make conditions feel a bit brisk. Highs will span the 60s . low-60s north and upper 60s south.

Much of the moisture is pushed southeast along with the front later this afternoon. Decreasing moisture and the end of diurnal heating will trend toward clear skies this evening into tonight. Winds lighten up fairly quickly overnight with surface high pressure building in. There is ample opportunity for radiational cooling in what is likely the coolest night of the fall thus far. Sections of northeast Missouri will likely dip into the mid-30s where there is the best potential for patchy frost. Other outlying areas may see patch frost, but should be limited to the cooler valleys/lower elevations. Lows area wide will range from the mid-30s to low-40s.

High pressure and northwesterly flow will keep conditions cool through the day Friday. After the cool start, temperatures will not even make it out of the 50s over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Many areas to the south will struggle to make it into the low 60s before the day ends.

Maples

LONG TERM. (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Cooler than normal temperatures will extend into the first half of the long term period. Chances for rain will likely dampen a portion of the weekend. Beyond the weekend, a warming trend will begin to materialize between the early and middle portion of next week.

Highs pressure will be overhead Friday night with mostly clear skies and light winds. This is expected to result in another cool night, but a touch warmer than Thursday night. Mid to high clouds are likely to begin increasing from the northwest, well ahead of next system. The timing and extent of the cloud cover will likely result in cooler temperatures east of the Mississippi River with upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Clouds aid to keep Missouri location slightly warmer with low to mid-40s being the rule-of-thumb.

The surface high begins to slide off to the east with light southerly surface flow kicking in ahead of the next system. As mentioned over the last few days, this system drops down through the northwesterly flow aloft, as a weak surface low begins to round the base of the positively tilted upper trough. The system closes in on western Missouri Saturday morning and near the Mississippi River by early afternoon. There is somewhat of a broad area where shower development may commence over central Missouri/northeast Missouri by early afternoon. This is in the vicinity of the nose of a weakening low level jet and mid-level warm air advection, along with increasing moisture and lift. The latest ECM guidance continues to solidify thoughts on limiting factors. This includes a less organized surface low and weaker upper shortwave as it passes overhead. While moisture transport is initially out of the southwest, it quickly turns westerly and northwest with the passage of the system Sunday morning. GEFS plumes and ensembles tend to agree with a short 12 hour window or so for rain potential. Given the limited time with deeper moisture, rainfall amounts will likely line up between the operational runs and GEFS means, which range from one-tenth to around one-quarter of an inch.

The surface low ejects northeast into the Great Lakes, east of the quickly exiting upper trough. This drags a cold front through behind the system late Sunday into Monday. Surface high pressure builds in behind the front Monday. Upper flow goes quasi-zonal for at least a brief period of time early in the week. As the surface high exist and spans the eastern seaboard, it sets the stage for southwesterly surface flow ahead of a weak cold front Tuesday. This should allow temperatures to return to the 70s. Despite increasing ensemble spread, the overall trend favors a continued warming trend into the midweek period with deterministic guidance pushing into the mid and upper 70s by Wednesday.

Maples

AVIATION. (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1128 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

VFR conditions are expected Thursday through Friday afternoon at all local terminals. Gusty northwesterly winds will diminish quickly this evening, and remain generally light tonight through Friday. Some afternoon cumulus is expected today, but ceilings will remain at VFR levels.

BRC

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Litchfield Municipal Airport, IL25 mi52 minNW 10 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F36°F44%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K3LF

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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.