Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:12AM||Sunset 7:46PM||Wednesday April 21, 2021 6:34 AM CDT (11:34 UTC)||Moonrise 12:27PM||Moonset 2:26AM||Illumination 71%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hettick, ILHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLSX 211115 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 615 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021
SHORT TERM. (Through Late Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021
Yesterday's band of mixed precipitation and associated cloud cover has pushed well to the south, leaving the CWA under clear skies. Surface observations show that temperatures have cooled to at least 32 degrees area-wide. With skies remaining mostly clear, temperatures are expected to continue cooling this morning by a couple more degrees.
The rising sun will help kick off a warming trend as temperatures rise into the low 50s for highs this afternoon. A shortwave currently producing the cloud cover and light, spotty precipitation seen across Nebraska, Iowa, and western Missouri will continue to track southeastward today. As it passes through the CWA during peak heating this afternoon, isolated showers are expected to develop in an area covering mainly northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois extending southward into the St. Louis metro area. Showers are expected to dissipate around sunset.
For late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, I've adjusted temperatures to around the 50th percentile of current model guidance - a degree or two colder than the previous forecast in many locations. While still not as cold as this morning is expected to get, clear skies will allow for temperatures to drop to the freezing point or a few degrees below. A Freeze Warning has been issued now for this part of the period. Temperatures during the day on Thursday will rebound into the mid-50s for highs under increasingly cloudy skies ahead of our next weather system.
LONG TERM. (Thursday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021
Late Thursday evening into Friday, our focus turns to the next chance of rain. The surface high over the region will shift eastward, turning low-level winds southerly, which in turn will begin advecting warm, moist air over the CWA. Aloft, a shortwave is expected to traverse the Northern Plains and upper Midwest, and this shortwave will tap into this warm, moist air mass to kick off precipitation. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement this first round of rain occurring and being light.
Shortly after this first shortwave passes through the Midwest and weakens, a second will eject out of the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains. In response, a surface low will develop and track across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Moisture advecting northward ahead of this surface system will interact with a baroclinic zone draped across the Ohio River Valley and produce widespread rainfall and isolated thunderstorms across the CWA starting Friday afternoon and continuing through Saturday morning. Ensemble consensus is that the heaviest of this rain will occur along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and I-70 corridor in Illinois. For points north of this corridor, generally 0.5" or less is expected, and for this corridor and points south, 0.75-1" is currently forecast. Locations in deep southeastern Missouri could see rainfall totals approach 1.25".
As the surface low progresses eastward, an area of high pressure will drop southward over the Midwest for a brief shot of cooler air late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Temperatures will bottom out in the low 40s for most locations, though some upper 30s may occur across portions of northeastern Missouri. These values are generally at the 25th percentile of ensemble guidance, so I have high confidence in the current forecast, but we'll have to keep a close eye on this area for temperatures trending a couple degrees cooler and yielding frost potential.
The aforementioned surface high will quickly shift eastward on Sunday, and upper-level ridging will build across the eastern United States. In turn, our temperatures will continue to rise through the end of the period to about 10 degrees above climatological norms. For Tuesday, the chance of rain returns potentially along with some thunderstorms as a trough digs southward across the central United States. However, details in this part of period are unclear due to spread among deterministic and ensemble guidance.
AVIATION. (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning) Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021
With dew point depressions increasing and winds remaining light, I have confidence in removing the mention of fog from the KSUS and KCPS TAFs early in the period. Additionally, there is currently spotty light precipitation in west-central Missouri drifting southeastward in the general direction of the KCOU terminal. My confidence is higher in this precipitation staying clear of the terminal over impacting the terminal, but it will bear watching over the next few hours. Otherwise, confidence is high that VFR conditions are to prevail at all terminals through the forecast period. This afternoon, there is the chance for isolated showers, and these have the potential to impact the KUIN, KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS terminals. However, given the isolated nature of the showers, confidence is still low in their direct impact to terminals, so have maintained VCSH for now. If showers do impact terminals directly, light rain is expected, potentially briefly bringing flight conditions to MVFR.
CLIMATE. Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021
An potentially-historic airmass is expected to threaten low temperature records across our area for the middle of the week. Here is a look at record min temps and record low max temps during that time.
WED 4/21 THU 4/22
RECORD MIN TEMPERATURES St. Louis (KSTL) 32/1904 31/1936 Columbia (KCOU) 29/1907 29/1986 Quincy (KUIN) 26/1904 27/1986
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES St. Louis (KSTL) 46/1893 43/1884 Columbia (KCOU) 42/1992 48/1893 Quincy (KUIN) 37/1918 44/1927
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO- Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO- Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL . Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL-Bond IL- Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair-Washington IL.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL- Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair-Washington IL.
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|Litchfield Municipal Airport, IL||25 mi||39 min||W 7||10.00 mi||Fair||31°F||28°F||85%||1021.7 hPa|
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