Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hettick, IL

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 7:03 AM CDT (12:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 10:53AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hettick, IL
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location: 39.38, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 211140
afdlsx
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
640 am cdt Wed aug 21 2019

Short term (through late Thursday afternoon)
issued at 415 am cdt Wed aug 21 2019
primary focus in the short term continues to be convection the
effects the precipitation and clouds will have on temperatures. A
cold front currently over iowa will drift slowly south today through
Thursday. Persistent south-southwesterly flow at 850mb will
continue to drive warm and moist air up into the mid mississippi
valley. Rap, gfs, NAM and ECMWF all show persistent 850mb moisture
convergence over the forecast area on the 850mb baroclinic zone, and
the models all print out qfp coincident with this moisture
convergence. Additionally, the convection allowing models (cams)
all show simulated thunderstorms developing over central northeast
missouri this morning where the moisture convergence is, and periods
of storms continue to affect the area through Thursday to a greater
or lesser extent depending on which model you look at. This
solution matches well with the mass fields on all of the short term
guidance. I've therefore kept high chance to likely pops across
northeast missouri into west central illinois this morning, shifting
south late this afternoon and tonight into Thursday as the front and
corresponding low level baroclinicity also drifts south. Model
precipitable water is in excess of 2 inches due to the continuing
warm moist flow aloft... Although model QPF is not particularly
high... 1-1.5 inches over the next 48 hours or so. Additionally, the
storms in the cams are progressive over our area, and do not train
for long periods over one area. Therefore i'm not too worried about
widespread flooding, but will mention a possibility for locally
heavy rain as a nod to the high p-wats.

All of this convection should produce plenty of cloud cover over the
area today. I think this will suppress temperatures... Even where it
doesn't rain... So i've leaned toward the more moderate end of
guidance and have not issued any heat headlines this morning. If
the precipitation and cloud cover doesn't work out of course, then
there could be excessive heat issues this afternoon.

Carney

Long term (Thursday night through Tuesday)
issued at 415 am cdt Wed aug 21 2019
the cold front will continue taking its sweet time moving south
through the mid mississippi valley on Thursday night and Friday.

While the effective surface front may be continually pushed a little
further southward with each round of convection, the low level
baroclinic zone remains parked over missouri and illinois since the
upper level trough never seems to dig far enough into the
mississippi valley to truly get us into northwest flow aloft. The
continual south-southwest 850mb flow into the baroclinic zone,
combined with a series of eastward moving mcvs left over from
nocturnal convection over the plains, will keep the chance of
precipitation going through Friday into at least Friday night.

Medium range models differ on the position of the front Saturday and
Sunday. The ECMWF is the furthest south and southwest... Most likely
due to it's somewhat deeper upper level trough stretching from new
england southwest through the ohio valley into the tennessee valley.

The GFS is much faster moving this upper trough offshore and it
develops an upper level ridge over the upper midwest and great
lakes with another short wave moving east from the plains into the
lower mississippi valley Saturday and Sunday. The GFS therefore
prints out precip across much of southern missouri Saturday, and
southeast missouri and southern illinois on Sunday.

Both the GFS and ECMWF move the front back to the north of the
forecast area Monday, but the ECMWF pushes another cold front
through iowa into missouri Monday night and Tuesday as another large
upper level low moves across south central canada and the upper
midwest. The upper pattern on the GFS is quite different. In the
wake of the Saturday Sunday shortwave, a 5950 meter 500mb ridge
builds across the eastern plains into the mississippi valley by
Tuesday afternoon. The differences in the guidance for Saturday
through Tuesday make this a low confidence medium range forecast.

Carney

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 623 am cdt Wed aug 21 2019
a wide area of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue
moving east into central and northeast missouri and west central
illinois this morning. Current observations show most of the area
under the rain shield isVFR, but some MVFR ceilings visibilities
are being reported in the heavier thunderstorms. It's likely that
the visibility is being reduced to ifr in heavy rain in spots as
well. Current thinking is that this area of rain and thunderstorms
will begin to weaken and dissipate through mid-late morning
leaving only isolated to scattered showers for the afternoon.

Another wide area of showers and storms is expected to develop
this evening and persist into Thursday morning as a slow-moving cold
front moves into the mid mississippi valley. MVFR flight
conditions likely across much of the area overnight as the front
moves in... And ifr conditions are possible in the heavier rain.

Specifics for kstl:
the area of showers and thunderstorms over northwest missouri
is expected to continue moving east this morning. Current thinking
is that the storms will weaken as they move into eastern
missouri and not directly impact the terminal... Though this is not
a particularly high confidence forecast. Another round of
precipitation is expected to develop this evening, with flight
conditions falling to MVFR overnight. Timing on the MVFR is not
high confidence, and it's possible that ceilings could fall to low
MVFR or ifr before sunrise.

Carney

Preliminary point temps pops
Saint louis 87 70 83 70 60 70 60 50
quincy 84 64 79 63 60 60 50 30
columbia 86 67 80 66 60 70 70 50
jefferson city 86 68 82 67 60 70 70 50
salem 87 69 82 65 50 60 60 60
farmington 90 68 82 66 50 60 70 50

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Litchfield Municipal Airport, IL25 mi69 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist65°F65°F100%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K3LF

Wind History from 3LF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3--S4CalmN19
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS4S3S3S4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7--Calm--SE3CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalm
2 days agoS5S5S6CalmNW8N8E4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.