Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Townsend, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:09PM Monday January 20, 2020 1:06 PM EST (18:06 UTC) Moonrise 3:26AMMoonset 1:34PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 1230 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight est tonight...
This afternoon..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt in the morning, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..Wind variable less than 5 kt, becoming N around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain.
ANZ400 1230 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Strong high pressure centered well to our west today will gradually build closer tonight and Tuesday, then settle right over our region Wednesday and Thursday. The high then weakens some and shifts to our east Friday. Low pressure will arrive on Saturday, then exit the region on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Townsend, DE
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location: 39.4, -75.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 201433 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 933 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure centered well to our west today will gradually build closer tonight and Tuesday, then settle right over our region Wednesday and Thursday. The high then weakens some and shifts to our east Friday. Low pressure will arrive on Saturday, then exit the region on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A 1042 mb surface high centered over the Plains this morning also extends eastward into the Great Lakes. This is resulting in a northerly flow of cold and rather dry air across our region. The cold air mass pouring over the milder ocean waters is resulting in multiple bands of clouds with even a narrow band down Delaware Bay. The bay band is resulting in some cloud cover for the Delaware beaches, however these are expected to dissipate with time today. Looks like the inversion height is low enough and therefore no precipitation is falling out of these clouds. Otherwise, plenty of sunshine is expected today with just a few very narrow bands of stratocumulus into the Poconos which should retreat during the course of the day.

The 12z Sterling, VA raob shows the wealth of dry air plus steep lapse rates from the surface up to about 3,000 feet. Given the flow, a brisk day (wind gusts up to 30 mph) is expected adding a wind chill factor. For the latest update, just tweaked the hourly grids based on the actual observations to keep them current and increased the wind and wind gusts some. No changes made to the afternoon high temperatures which will be in the 20's to lower/mid 30's.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/. The center of the surface high is forecast to slide from western Iowa to northeastern Missouri tonight. The air mass will continue to build slowly toward our region. We are anticipating a mainly clear sky with a northwest to north wind 5 to 10 mph.

Low temperatures are expected to be mainly in the teens, with some single digit readings in the elevated terrain of the Poconos and far northern New Jersey.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The main feature of the extended will be a large area of high pressure that builds into the Mid-Atlantic through the course of the week. The airmass starts off on the cold side and below the climatological normals but will moderate each day and reach near normal through mid-week before continuing to warm to above normal temperatures by the end of the work week.

Highs on Tuesday will be on the cool side as we continue to have northwest flow across the region with the center of the high still to our west. Temperatures will generally be in the 30s across the region with some 20s across the southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey. Tuesday night should feature good radiational cooling as there will be very limited clouds, if any at all, and little to no wind. Temperatures will then bottom out in the mid teens to lower 20s with cooler spots in the Poconos and northwest New Jersey.

For Wednesday, temperatures should be warming with the flow becoming very light across the region with high starting to build overhead. Highs will start to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s (much closer to the normals for late January) during the daytime before dropping off again at night into the teens to lower 20s, although areas near the coast may remain in the mid to upper 20s overnight.

Clouds will increase starting on Thursday as the high slides overhead and starts to push to the east. Increasing cloudiness will then continue into Friday in advance of next system developing to our west/southwest and its movement towards our area. However, the increased cloudcover will not be enough to stop the air at the surface from warming each day and raising temperatures back above normal for late January. For Thursday temperatures will warm even further and reach well into the 40s across the forecast area. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 40s and potentially reaching into the lower 50s as far north as the I-95 corridor. These highs will be on average around 10 degrees warmer than normal through the forecast area on Friday.

Model guidance continues to show a primary low moving from the plains and into the Ohio Valley with a secondary low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico and tracking along the northern Gulf and then up into the Mid-Atlantic around Saturday. The primary low occludes and weakens as the secondary low starts to deepen and strengthen as it approaches our area. Timing and location of the center of the low are still unsure as it could arrive as early as Saturday morning or later in the day. Timing will be important as temperatures will help to dictate the precipitation type as the storm enters and then moves through the region. One thing that is consistent so far is that it looks like we will have an abundance of warm air across much of the region with pockets of colder air across portions of our northern areas. Thermal profiles indicate that some mixing may occur, especially Saturday morning, before the warm air fully surges northward which could lead to some freezing rain or sleet so this will definitely be something to keep an eye on as the system develops through the week. The system is expected to pull away from our area on Sunday, with an end to the precipitation occuring from west to east, and the potential return of some slightly cooler air.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today . VFR. Northwesterly winds 12-18 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR. Northwest to north winds diminishing to 5-10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook . Tuesday through Wednesday . VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds around 10 knots on Tuesday, becoming light and variable on Wednesday. High confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday . VFR conditions expected. Light and variable winds. High confidence.

Friday . VFR conditions expected. Increasing cloudiness with the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions and rain towards Friday night. Light north to northeast winds, becoming east to southeast around 5 knots. Generally high confidence with lower confidence on timing of lower conditions during the evening/night.

MARINE. Northwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected into this evening. We have extended the Small Craft Advisory until midnight to allow the gusts a little extra time to subside. The wind gusts should fall to 15 to 20 knots after midnight as the pressure gradient continues to relax slowly.

Outlook . Tuesday through Thursday . Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Seas are expected to be around 1 to 3 feet. Winds will generally be out of the northwest around 10 to 15 knots on Tuesday diminishing to 5 to 10 knots for Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday . Seas will build through the day and may start to approach 5 feet by midday/early afternoon on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for seas by Friday afternoon. Winds will generally be light but will increase out of the east/southeast later in the day, remaining well below advisory criteria.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ430-431- 450>455.

Synopsis . Gorse/Meola Near Term . Gorse Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Meola Aviation . Gorse/Iovino/Meola Marine . Iovino/Meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 11 mi55 min 29°F 40°F1026.9 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 13 mi55 min 29°F 43°F1027.4 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 14 mi55 min 28°F 40°F1028 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 14 mi55 min 29°F 42°F1027.1 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 30 mi55 min 30°F 40°F1027 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 36 mi55 min 29°F 40°F1028.4 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 38 mi55 min 31°F 1026.7 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 44 mi49 min 31°F 41°F1026.4 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 45 mi49 min 31°F 38°F1026 hPa
BDSP1 49 mi55 min 29°F 1027.1 hPa

Wind History for Delaware City, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE19 mi71 minNNW 1310.00 miFair31°F8°F39%1027.4 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE19 mi76 minNNW 12 G 1910.00 miFair32°F8°F36%1027.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDOV

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE8SE5SE5S6S7--SW8S18SW17
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SW14SW15W6W8W7SW9W5W9W12W19
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2 days agoN15NW9
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NW12--NW6NW9NW8NW7NW6NW8N6N5N5N3NW4N5NE5NE3SE6S6S5S9S11S9

Tide / Current Tables for Taylors Bridge, Blackbird Creek, Delaware
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Taylors Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:27 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:10 AM EST     2.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:13 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:39 PM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.3-0.1-0.10.411.72.32.732.82.21.610.3-0.100.51.11.72.22.62.62.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:42 AM EST     1.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:20 AM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:55 AM EST     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:00 PM EST     0.05 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:39 PM EST     2.13 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:28 PM EST     -0.08 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:32 PM EST     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.41.91.91.60.8-1.1-1.8-2.1-2.2-2.1-1.8-1.4-0.11.522.11.91.50.8-0.9-1.3-1.3-1.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.