Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hamilton, OH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
High pressure will remain centered over the Tennessee Valley keeping the area dry but with southwest flow resulting in warm air advection. High clouds associated with a short wave tracking into the Great Lakes will spread some high clouds into the region, but for the most part there should be a good deal of sun. Highs will rise into the upper 30s to mid 40s, but with winds gusting over 20 mph at times, it may feel up to ten degrees colder.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Low pressure passing across the upper Great Lakes will cause the pressure gradient to pinch a bit tonight. So after a brief diurnal reduction, wind speeds will actually increase. However, not expecting much in the way of gusts as an inversion sets up.
There will still be some high clouds passing across the region.
Temperatures will only fall into the lower 30s, but wind chill will be in the lower to mid 20s.

As the low and short wave to the north depart, the high to the south will nudge a bit further north again for Sunday. So expecting fewer clouds until late in the day when high clouds in advance of the next storm system approach from the southwest.
And temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
On Sunday evening, a compact closed upper low will be located in southeastern Kansas. As this feature opens into a wave, it will move ENE into the Ohio Valley by Monday morning. As this wave moves into the Ohio Valley, there will be quite a bit of theta-e advection in the 850mb-700mb layer, with some slightly weaker theta-e advection below 850mb as well. As a result of the upper forcing and moisture transport, widespread rainfall is expected to blossom over the region Sunday night, especially in the 06Z-12Z time frame heading into Monday morning. Temperatures look easily warm enough to keep this all rain for the area. In terms of rainfall amounts, the most likely scenario from the blend of models is around an inch in the southern CWA, with about a half inch (or a little more) in the northern CWA Probabilities for rainfall amounts of 1.5" or greater are very low at this time.

The stronger upper/mid level forcing associated with this initial shortwave will be departing by Monday afternoon, and there will likely be a period of dry weather (or only spotty light precipitation) after 18Z Monday. However, the overall weather pattern will be amplifying more significantly Monday night into Tuesday -- with a large trough developing upstream of the region. It is likely that there will be additional periods of steady precipitation at some point during the time period from Tuesday morning through Wednesday. A surge of higher theta-e in the boundary layer will also move northward along the western edge of the Appalachians on Tuesday afternoon, though this moist air will likely remain just east of the ILN forecast area. By Tuesday evening, a surface cold front will begin passing through the region. Once the cold advection has kicked in behind this front, some of the precipitation could end up turning to snow. However, timing and precipitation type forecasts out by Wednesday are of relatively low confidence, and the strongest forcing will likely be departing.
Thus, snowfall amounts are not expected to be much of anything.

Temperatures will be above normal on Monday and Tuesday, before cooling significantly behind the cold front for Wednesday and Thursday. Behind the cold front, as the upper trough moves away, the flow pattern will turn more zonal -- but with dry conditions expected through the end of the week.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR will persist with just some high clouds passing across the area. Southwest winds will increase a bit during the day with some gusts over 20 kt. While gusts will diminish, sustained winds will continue through the night. In addition, low level wind shear will occur starting around 01-02Z.

OUTLOOK...IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are likely late Sunday night into Monday. MVFR to IFR ceilings will likely linger through Monday night into Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.