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FXUS61 KILN 031955 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 355 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Persistent high pressure will exit to the east on Thursday. A cold front will then cross the area on Thursday night and Friday bringing some showers and much cooler temperatures over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
What few clouds are found this afternoon will quickly dissipate before sunset. Clear skies will be found overnight with some valley fog expected to develop before daybreak.

Light southeast wind will become variable and lows will drop to within a few degrees of 60.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High cloud cover will begin to stream in from the west on Wednesday, thickening to an overcast layer overnight.

Highs will be near 85 degrees with mostly sunny skies and light southerly wind.

Overnight lows will bump 3-5 degrees higher from tonight's values. Readings will range from the low 60s in the Scioto Valley and Hocking Hills, to the mid 60s over west central Ohio.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A major pattern shift is on tap for the region as we progress into the long term period, the beginning of which will arrive in the form of scattered SHRA through the day on Thursday ahead of a slow-moving frontal boundary, which will eventually work its way through the area during the daytime on Friday.

For Thursday, broad deep-layer SW flow will become established in the OH Vly as a midlevel disturbance translates to the NE within this flow stretching from the lower MS Rvr Vly through the Great Lakes region. Although the airmass will initially be relatively dry, moisture advection will be well underway through the afternoon/evening. This, combined with larger-scale ascent, should promote the development of fairly widespread SHRA activity, with perhaps a rumble of thunder, too. Do think that the thunder chances are relatively low (if they evolve at all)
at this juncture, but have maintained slight chance of TSRA across EC IN and WC OH Thursday afternoon/evening for now. But given trends and sounding analysis from a variety of solutions, thunder should be fairly limited in coverage locally. This holds true, too, for SE parts of the area Friday afternoon, owing to meager LL/deeper-layer instby.

Coverage of SHRA should be fairly widespread during the day Thursday into Thursday night, continuing in at least a scattered fashion into the day on Friday, especially for locales near/E of I-71 ahead of the front. And until that front finally moves through, above normal temps will continue (despite the widespread clouds/pcpn). Highs on Thursday should reach into the mid/upper 70s (W) and even lower 80s (E) before falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s by Friday morning. Although there are some timing differences to be worked out, with the front near the I-71 corridor by early afternoon Friday, NE KY and south-central OH should reach into the mid 70s, with cooler air already filtering in back to the W in EC IN and WC OH where highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s. Fairly robust CAA should evolve Friday evening/night everywhere as temps dip into the upper 40s and lower 50s by daybreak Saturday.

An extended period of below normal temps is expected Saturday through early next week as the tremendously large/deep low pressure (~ -2.5 sigma) meanders about the ern Great Lakes region and interior NE CONUS. Ensemble and deterministic data has trended perhaps to a slightly deeper/further W solution with this lumbering low for the weekend into early next week, which would act to not only keep the cooler/chillier air around for a bit longer, but would also likely translate to a cloudier weekend/early next week, depending on the exact positioning of the low. Nevertheless, strong/deep-layer NW flow off the lakes should, at the very least, keep clouds and perhaps a daily chance for a few SHRA in the fcst through the weekend. Breezy conditions are on tap for Friday and Saturday due to steepening LL lapse rates and more robust vertical mixing in the LLs. Gusts to 20-25kts are expected both Friday and Saturday afternoon/evenings.

Should winds relax and skies clear enough Sunday or Monday morning, some patchy frost may be possible.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions will remain over the region with some few afternoon fair wx cu possible today and a light southeasterly wind.

Fog development is expected again at KLUK, with a similar rapid improvement to VFR 12-13Z.

High clouds will increase from west-east on Wednesday, along with a slight uptick in afternoon cu that does not constitute a ceiling.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibility possible Thursday night into Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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