Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hamilton, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A frontal boundary extending from southeast Indiana, across southwest Ohio and central Ohio will continue to sag slowly south overnight as a weak sfc wave of low pressure ripples thru the area.
This boundary has been the focus for showers and embedded thunderstorms thru the aftn and into the evening. A very moist environment exists with PWats around 1.7 inches. The weak sfc wave is currently located in the Tri-state region and the slow movement of storms (training) around this low was resulting in very heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Have extended the flood watch thru midnight and carved some counties out across the north and added counties to the south and east.

As we begin to lose instability and the wave shifts east, expect to see a weakening and decreasing trend in coverage overnight. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s northwest to the upper 60s in the south.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
The frontal boundary will push slowly south Sunday into Sunday night as the mid level trough axis shifts slowly east across the upper Ohio Valley. As we slightly destabilize again through the day, expect scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to become more widespread Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening, with the highest pops across our southeast. The pcpn should then dissipate through Sunday night as we lose the instability and the trough axis moves off to our east. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with lows Sunday night in the 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The region remains under a relatively weak flow pattern aloft at the start of the extended period. A weak shortwave looks to move through the larger flow Monday, providing a resurgence of deep moisture (PWATs back to 140% of normal). At the surface, Tds remain in the upper 60s/low 70s with daytime high temps reaching the low/mid 80s, so we remain in "the air is soup" mode. As the shortwave moves through, scattered showers and storms are once again introduced into the forecast for Monday afternoon and evening, potentially lingering into Tuesday morning. No real signal for severe threat- very little forcing/ shear.

By mid-week, we'll be on the cusp of a broader pattern change thanks to a few different factors... First, to our north, a low pressure system scooting by the Hudson Bay will drag a weak surface cold front all the way down through the Mid-West. This will be the focus for redevelopment/intensification of a secondary area of low pressure that will be moving off the leeward side of the Rockies.
This secondary feature will be the next organized weather system to the region.

Surface flow turns southerly again by Tuesday afternoon, pumping additional moisture and warmth into the region. Overnight lows Tuesday night only fall to the upper 60s/low 70s. Thanks to this continued WAA, Wednesday looks to be the warmest and muggiest day of the week. Feels like temps have been tickling Advisory criteria in spots the last few runs, but we're not quite there yet. As the system to our west draws closer, we'll be open warm sectored for a period (likely on Wednesday) before the trailing cold front swings through (Wednesday night? Thursday?). Given the ample warm sector and more potent forcing/shear associated with this system, this does open up the possibility for a severe weather threat. However, timing will play a large role in how things evolve and we're still a bit far out for details.

After the system pulls off to the east, we should experience a brief reprieve in moisture and maybe a few peeks of sunshine to end the work week in the post frontal subsidence regime.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Latest surface analysis shows an east west oriented frontal boundary draped across the area. Moderate instability developed across southern Ohio/southeast Indiana and northern KY - south of the frontal boundary. This has led to scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of weak low pressure that is moving into the Tri-state region.
As the low moves east of the area expect shower/thunderstorms to diminish this evening. The front will slip a little south overnight.

Lingering low level moisture will lead to widespread MVFR cigs dropping to IFR later tonight into early Sunday morning. Some MVFR fog development will also be possible overnight into early Sunday.
Ceilings will lift back to MVFR later Sunday morning and then trend to VFR through the afternoon.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again be possible on Sunday with the best coverage of storms across the south during the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Several rounds of storms possible through Wednesday, causing periods of MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings and visibilities.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ053>056-060>065- 070>072.
KY...None.
IN...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for INZ066.