Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Absecon, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. A strong cold front Friday brings an end to the warmth as much colder air arrives for the weekend.

2. Spotty minor coastal flooding will be possible with the Tuesday morning high tide cycle.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front Friday brings an end to the warmth as much colder air arrives for the weekend.

A potent upper-level trough is forecast to arrive across the East during Friday, then gradually lift out over the weekend. This will drive surface low pressure just north of our area Friday with an associated strong cold front sweeping through.

A mild and increasingly moist air mass ahead of this feature will provide some instability as the strong cold front arrives on Friday.
Large scale forcing for ascent will increase with the arrival of the robust upper-level trough and cold front, therefore showers will increase for a time (peaking on Friday). Some showers though look to develop Thursday night ahead of the main cold front. Some thunderstorms cannot be ruled out given the strength of the system, however this will ultimately depend on the magnitude of the instability and timing of the cold front. In the wake of the cold front, strong cold air advection occurs and this will result in much colder temperatures for the weekend. As of now, high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday look to struggle to get out of the 50s (colder in the higher terrain). A gusty wind Saturday due to cold air advection and a tightened pressure gradient will add to the chill. If the wind drops off enough Saturday night, some frost or freezing temperatures will become a concern for portions of our area. The air mass then starts to modify early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Spotty minor coastal flooding will be possible with the Tuesday morning high tide cycle.

As of 2 PM this afternoon, water levels are coming down following the morning high tide but there's still water trapped in some of the back bay areas of Sussex County, DE and Ocean County, NJ (mainly Barnegat Bay). As a result, we extended the Coastal Flood Advisory for these areas until 5 PM. Otherwise, the rest of the advisory was allowed to expire at 2 PM. There will be the potential for some additional minor coastal flooding with Tuesday morning's high tide cycle for places along the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay but it should be more spotty in nature as we get farther way from the New Moon.

No tidal flooding concerns expected along the Chesapeake Bay.



AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR expected with decreasing clouds but fog is possible after midnight. Inserted TEMPO groups for many terminals. High confid except with regards to for formation. NW winds 5 to 10 kts. early then calm overnight.

Tuesday... VFR expected. Southwest winds increasing 5 to 10 knots. High confid.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday and Friday...A period of sub-VFR conditions possible with showers. Gusty southwest to west winds on Friday.

Saturday...VFR. Gusty northwest winds.

MARINE
SCA conditions continue on the waters this afternoon and the marine flags will continue as is. It's possible that the seas may drop below 5 FT before the present flag expiration time however. Fair tonight and Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...No marine hazards are anticipated.

Friday and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions probable, with a period of gale-force wind gusts possible.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ020-026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for DEZ003-004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>452.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ453>455.