Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cecilton, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:11PM Thursday January 21, 2021 1:42 PM EST (18:42 UTC) Moonrise 11:57AMMoonset 12:50AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1038 Am Est Thu Jan 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain or snow through the day, then rain and freezing rain or snow or sleet likely through the night.
ANZ500 1038 Am Est Thu Jan 21 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore through tonight. Canadian high pressure will build toward the waters late in the week and into the weekend. Low pressure may impact the waters early next week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Friday night through Sunday morning, and a gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cecilton, MD
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location: 39.46, -75.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 211534 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1034 AM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A clipper system will cross from Ontario into New England through Friday, bringing a cold front to our region. Low pressure will remain across eastern Canada through Saturday, while high pressure builds across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. This will keep strong west to northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic through Sunday. This surface high will briefly build over our region Sunday ahead of another low pressure system which should cross off the Carolina coast Monday night into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. No changes have been made to the forecast so far today. Cool and breezy conditions continue.

For today, a low pressure system will gradually move east from northern Ontario into Quebec as it slowly weakens. The day should feature a mix of clouds and sunshine with winds becoming breezy out of the W/SW with some gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Highs will be mainly in the 40s except 30s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ.

For tonight, the aformentioned low will continue weakening over southern Quebec while a secondary low develops well off the coast south of Nova Scotia. Meanwhile the next surface high will be gradually moving south into to the north central CONUS. This will result in the winds staying up a bit so lows will be milder compared to this morning . generally in the upper 20s to low 30s under mainly clear to partly cloudy skies.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Most precipitation from the clipper low crossing from Ontario into New England should stay north of our region. However, persistent, strong northwesterly flow will allow some lake effect enhanced snow showers to reach areas north and west of the fall line Friday into Friday evening. With the best lift well north of the area and limited moisture, it does not appear to be a significant snow event, but light accumulations are certainly possible, primarily in the southern Poconos.

Despite the low progressing well northeast, off shore, by Friday night, the strongest pressure gradient, and thus strongest winds, is expected on Saturday in response to the high building over the upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes. In fact, some models show the SLP at the center of this high at an impressive 1032 mb by Saturday morning! Regardless if that is completely realized, there will be a tight NNW-SSE oriented pressure gradient over our region through much of the day on Saturday. Model soundings depict peak surface winds in the 30 to 35 mph range on land (35 to 40 mph possible on the water), which would be below wind advisory thresholds, but will need to keep an eye on this as we get closer.

Not surprisingly, with this prolonged period of northwesterly/northerly flow, we will see strong cold air advection from Friday into Saturday. On Friday, highs should be near normal - in the 30s and 40s - but by Saturday, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs from the lower 20s in the Poconos to mid 30s near the coast. Although winds should diminish on Saturday night, it will still be 5 to 10 mph in most places. This combined with lows mostly in the single digits and teens means that wind chill values Saturday night could get below zero for the southern Poconos and higher terrain of NW NJ.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The main story in the long term is the potential system Monday into Tuesday. Some of the operational models, most notably the Canadian, trended towards the GFS solution showing a track mostly surpressed to the south, progressive, and weakening as it gets to the eastern U S. The ECMWF still shows a slower solution with the low crossing over our region. However, I am a bit skeptical of the ECMWF solution as it depicts the southern stream mid level trough lifting northeast as it deepens without phasing with any shortwave trough in the northern stream. This seems like an odd track for this time of year, and quite a departure from what we've seen with recent storm tracks. None the less, I've stayed close to the previous forecast given the poor agreement between models and from run to run. It should be noted however, that even with the GFS or Canadian solutions that measurable snow might still be possible across Delmarva and far southern NJ.

Ridge builds south over the region on Wednesday leading to tranquil, albeit colder than normal, conditions. Some operational models show another low crossing the southeastern U.S. quickly on its heels on Wednesday night, but given the uncertainty with the early week low, have stayed close to a blend of guidance through this period.

AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR conditions will continue through the day today. Southwesterly winds around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots during the afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR. West winds generally around 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Friday . Mostly VFR conditions expected. However, scattered flurries are possible near KABE and KRDG during the day which could briefly lower conditions to MVFR. Westerly winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts around 20 kt during the day, becoming northwesterly 5 to 10 kt Friday night. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence if flurries will directly impact KABE and KRDG.

Saturday . VFR conditions expected. Northwesterly winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Winds should diminish to 5 to 10 kt by late Saturday evening. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . VFR conditions expected. Northwesterly winds gusting up to 20 kt during the day, diminishing to light and variable overnight. Moderate confidence.

Monday . There is a chance of snow or rain for much of the area on Monday, which could lead to MVFR or IFR conditions as a storm system moves south of the region. Winds are forecast to be quite variable due to the passing of the low pressure. Low confidence.

MARINE. Winds will increase once again as we head into the day today with SW winds generally 15 to 20 with with gusts up to 25 knots over the ocean waters. For this reason we have an SCA starting at 14z for our ocean zones. Over the Delaware Bay, wind gusts should stay just below SCA criteria.

Winds shift from SW to more of a westerly direction for tonight but otherwise not much change in conditions.

Wave heights over the ocean zones will increase from around 2 to 3 feet overnight to 3 to 5 feet for Thursday and Thursday night.

Outlook .

Friday . SCA conditions (primarily for northwesterly winds gusting to 30 kt) continue through Friday night.

Saturday . Northwesterly winds increase early on Saturday. Gusts to gale force are possible, but there remains some uncertainty.

Sunday-Monday . Conditions are expected to fall and remain below SCA criteria.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . Fitzsimmons/Robertson Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Johnson/Robertson Marine . Fitzsimmons/Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi72 min W 8.9 G 13 44°F 39°F1006.6 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 17 mi72 min SW 6 G 9.9 44°F 30°F1006.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi72 min 45°F 40°F1006 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi72 min WSW 6 G 6 41°F 40°F1007.1 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 28 mi72 min WSW 9.9 G 11 44°F 39°F1007.3 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi72 min 39°F 40°F1006.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi72 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 43°F 1006.9 hPa
FSNM2 39 mi72 min W 8.9 G 11 43°F 1006.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 40 mi72 min WSW 1.9 G 5.1 44°F 42°F1006.4 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi72 min 42°F 34°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi72 min WSW 4.1 G 8.9 48°F 41°F1006.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi102 min S 8 G 8 43°F 41°F1008.6 hPa (-2.7)24°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi51 minWSW 810.00 miFair45°F24°F44%1006.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12W8W9W3W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4Calm--W8--W10
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W6W7W4W5W5SW3SW4W3--W6SW5W7SW6W7W6SW7SW9SW9SW9SW12W13
2 days agoW13W6SW4CalmSW5CalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmSW4W4SW5CalmSW3W5SW5SW5W5W8W12
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Tide / Current Tables for Courthouse Point, Maryland
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Courthouse Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:50 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:01 AM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:27 AM EST     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:07 PM EST     1.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:45 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.31.41.310.60.1-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.20.20.71.21.61.71.61.41.10.80.50.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:47 AM EST     1.89 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:50 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:26 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:45 AM EST     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:37 AM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:26 PM EST     1.88 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:28 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:07 PM EST     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:00 PM EST     0.04 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.91.60.9-1-1.5-1.8-1.9-1.7-1.4-0.90.71.51.81.81.40.8-0.8-1.3-1.5-1.4-1-0.10.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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