Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bel Air South, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The cold front continues to linger across the southern part of the CWA this afternoon. An approaching wave is spreading some thicker cirrus across the area, and some light showers are approaching from southwest Virginia. These showers may brush by portions of central Virginia and southern Maryland over the next several hours. However, there is a lot of low and mid level dry air in place, so should any rain reach the ground, it will be light in nature. The chance for rain may peak across southern Maryland later this evening as low pressure moves across southeast Virginia. While some guidance has trended slightly northward, it is still unlikely rain would reach any farther north than St. Marys County. Otherwise, there will be abundant cirrus across the area, which will likely prevent temperatures from falling to the dew points. Lows will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The cold front will push farther south Wednesday and Thursday while high pressure builds in from the north. Departing cirrus Wednesday will result in increased sunshine with only patchy higher clouds expected Thursday. Otherwise dry weather is expected. High temperatures will settle into the lower to mid 70s Wednesday then rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s Thursday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s both nights.
RH will fall into the 30% range each afternoon, but the lack of wind and increasing green-up should prevent any widespread fire weather concerns.

As low pressure moves toward the upper Great Lakes Thursday night, the frontal zone to the south and west will begin lifting north as a warm front. While clouds may start to increase, any rain will likely hold off until Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
On Friday, a warm front lifting through the Mid-Atlantic will bring above normal temperatures along with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s with those at higher elevations staying in the upper 60s. Overnight, a cold front approaches from the west before moving through the forecast area Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms continue on Saturday with a few thunderstorms possibly being strong. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 70s for most with overnight lows in the 40s to low 50s.

High pressure builds overhead in the wake of the frontal passage Sunday and into the workweek. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 60s for most with highs on Monday rising into the 70s.
Both days will be primarily dry due to high pressure, although rain showers cannot be ruled out in the Alleghenies on Monday afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are likely to prevail through Thursday as high pressure builds in. A few NW wind gusts to 20 kt are occurring this afternoon, but winds become light and variable overnight.
Light NE to E winds develop Wednesday before become SE Thursday.
As a warm front approaches, overrunning moisture could result in some sub-VFR ceilings by late Thursday night.

Sub-VFR conditions are possible Friday and Saturday as a cold front approaches and moves through the terminals. Southerly winds ahead of the front shift to west/northwesterly in the wake of the frontal passage. Showers and thunderstorms are possible both days.

MARINE
A cold front is still yet to clear southern Maryland as of mid afternoon. To its north, a few WNW gusts to around 20 kt occurred earlier in the northern bay, but winds appear to be settling down now. To the south, southerly to bay-breeze/onshore winds prevail. As low pressure moves away from southeast Virginia late tonight, there could be a brief period of northerly channeling down the bay that could approach advisory criteria.

High pressure will build across the area Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in light winds. NE to E winds Wednesday will become SE by Thursday.

SCA criteria winds are possible on Friday due to southerly channeling ahead of a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms impact the waters Friday and Saturday with winds shifting to northwesterly in the wake of the front. Small Craft Advisories are likely on Saturday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.