Tuesday, January19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Republic, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:05PM Tuesday January 19, 2021 12:43 PM EST (17:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:02PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1004 Am Est Tue Jan 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the W with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the W with a dominant period of 5 seconds, becoming mainly from the nw with a dominant period of 5 seconds in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 1004 Am Est Tue Jan 19 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A few weak upper level disturbances will move through the region into today. A cold front will cross the region early Wednesday with high pressure briefly moving in late Wednesday into early Thursday. Low pressure passes north of the area Thursday and Friday with another cold front crossing the region. High pressure returns for the weekend before the next low pressure system may affect the region early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Republic, NJ
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location: 39.55, -74.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 191546 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1046 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. A few weak upper level disturbances will move through the region into today. A cold front will cross the region early Wednesday with high pressure briefly moving in late Wednesday into early Thursday. Low pressure passes north of the area Thursday and Friday with another cold front crossing the region. High pressure returns for the weekend before the next low pressure system may affect the region early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An area of lake effect/enhanced snow showers developed and intensified earlier this morning across central Pennsylvania associated with a surface trough and a weak mid level short wave/vorticity impulse. As this moves eastward, isolated- scattered light snow showers and flurries could affect areas from around I-78 corridor northward. Lapse rates do steepen slightly across the Poconos and northwest New Jersey as a slight increase in moisture develops, so these areas will have a better chance of a light dusting or light accumulation to occur. Therefore we've added isolated-scattered snow showers and flurries to portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. Elsewhere, mainly an increase in clouds is expected. Winds will again be gusty at times with gusts reaching 20-30 mph for some areas.

Of more significant note is a mid level trough digging on the back side of the previously mentioned broad mid level trough, which should slide over our region late tonight into Wednesday morning. This should result in isolated or scattered snow showers across the region. Moisture will be a limiting factor, so do not expect significant accumulations at this point (less than an inch, primarily in the Poconos and NW NJ). I can't rule out a few snow squalls. However, models appear to have trended slightly faster with this trough, so we will likely see the best lift before 15Z, when low level lapse rates will be more limited. Thus, model soundings currently show negligible instability with the most likely period for any snow.

The combination of a 40 to 50 kt mid level jet and a tight surface pressure gradient (thanks to an intensifying surface low well of the coast) will result in breezy conditions. However, it still appears that winds should remain below wind advisory conditions, as peak gusts should be around 35 mph.

These gusty northwesterly conditions will have a secondary effect of cold air advection. Consequently, temperatures on Wednesday should be slightly below normal, with highs from the upper 20s in the southern Poconos to near 40 in Delmarva.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Transient surface ridging moves in Wednesday night bringing mainly clear skies with diminishing winds. This will set up good conditions for radiational cooling so we are forecasting temperatures towards the cooler side of guidance. Lows should be mainly in the teens in the colder spots of eastern PA as well as the Pine Barrens with low to mid 20s through the urban corridor, Delmarva, and coastal NJ.

Ridging quickly weakens over the region early Thursday as a low pressure system moves south and east over Ontario. This will push a warm front through the region and also bring some variable cloudiness however it should stay dry though will be somewhat breezy. Highs range from the 30s over the southern Poconos with low to mid 40s elsewhere so not too far off from average.

The low will continue to move east towards northern New England into Thursday night so this will help to keep the winds up enough to prevent decoupling so it will be a milder night with lows mostly in the 20s to low 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Low pressure moves through northern New England and then off the coast through Friday eventually dragging a cold front through the region late day. Ahead of this front it will be another breezy day with variable cloud cover and temperatures near to slightly above average. The main story for the weekend will then be colder temperatures but continuing dry weather. Following the cold frontal passage it will be gusty and cold for Saturday as high pressure builds in over Ontario while low pressure deepens over Atlantic Canada. Highs range from the 20s over the Poconos with 30s elsewhere but with the wind it will feel a good 10 degrees colder than this. Skies, however, should be partly to most sunny.

Seasonably cold weather continues into Sunday but with the high building in right over the region this should at least lead to lighter winds. The day should again feature mainly sunny skies.

Things could get interesting by early next week as a low pressure system moves east from the central CONUS. This could bring the area some snow or a rain/snow mix by late Monday into next Tuesday. However since this is still about a week away there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the track and timing of this system.

AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR conditions expected. Isolated flurries could affect ABE and RDG, but they will not be significant enough to include in the TAF at this time. West to southwest winds increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts near 20 knots. High confidence.

Tonight . Mostly VFR conditions expected. Scattered snow showers are possible after 06Z, primarily for KRDG, KABE, and KTTN, which could result in brief MVFR conditions, but confidence in the timing and extent of showers is too low to mention in the TAFs. Westerly winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence that snow showers will directly affect any TAF site.

Outlook .

Wednesday . Mostly VFR conditions are expected, though scattered snow showers could linger through 18Z, resulting in brief MVFR conditions. Gusty northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 kt with gusts near 30 kt. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence that snow showers will directly affect any TAF site.

Wednesday night . VFR with winds becoming light and variable. High confidence.

Thursday through Friday . VFR. A couple snow showers far N/W possible Thu afternoon. SW winds 10 to 20 knots Thursday shifting to northwest 10 to 20 knots for Friday. Moderate confidence.

Saturday . VFR with gusty NW winds gusting up to 25 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory conditions, with westerly winds gusting up to 30 kt, are expected to continue today. Winds should gradually diminish this afternoon, and we expect about a 12 hour lull in SCA conditions tonight.

Outlook .

Wednesday: Another period of SCA conditions is expected, with northwesterly wind gusts around 30 kt. There is a small chance that gusts could get as high as gale force, but it appears more likely that gusts will stay just below gale force. Because of the lull in conditions tonight, have not extended the current SCA, but once that SCA comes down, another one will likely be needed for Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Saturday: The general trend will continue to be for it to remain windy with SCA conditions. However Wednesday night into early Thursday there will be an abatement of these conditions before SW winds pick up again by Thursday afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots likely. Winds gusting 20 to 25 knots continue through Friday with the winds shifting from SW to NW. Following a cold frontal passage Friday night, winds could gust up to 30 knots into Saturday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430- 431-450>455.



Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Johnson/Robertson Short Term . Fitzsimmons Long Term . Fitzsimmons Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Johnson/Robertson Marine . Fitzsimmons/Johnson/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 1 mi74 min WSW 8 42°F 1021 hPa23°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 14 mi56 min 43°F 43°F1020.5 hPa
44091 40 mi48 min 46°F4 ft
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi68 min W 19 G 23 39°F 38°F1019.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 43 mi56 min WNW 16 G 20 39°F 40°F1019.5 hPa
BDSP1 44 mi56 min 41°F 40°F1019.5 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 45 mi56 min 42°F 38°F1019.4 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 48 mi56 min WSW 15 G 18 41°F 41°F1020.8 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ9 mi50 minW 17 G 2510.00 miPartly Cloudy43°F20°F40%1019.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Cramers Boatyard, New Jersey
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Cramers Boatyard
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:35 AM EST     2.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:08 AM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:01 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:47 PM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:29 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.62.62.31.81.30.90.60.40.611.62.12.52.62.41.91.30.80.40.20.20.61.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:20 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:15 AM EST     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:52 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:33 AM EST     1.71 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:32 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:34 PM EST     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:22 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:44 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.510.2-0.5-1-1.4-1.7-1.6-0.80.111.61.61.10.4-0.4-1-1.5-1.8-1.9-1.3-0.40.61.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.