Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bear, DE

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Another bitterly cold day is ongoing as temperatures are primarily in the teens to low 20s across the region this afternoon. Winds have diminished a tad from this morning, however feel-like temperatures remain mostly in the single digits and teens.

For tonight, surface high pressure will move overhead before gradually shifting offshore overnight. A weak impulse aloft will also move through the region, allowing some mid-level cloudiness to move in around sunset and persist through much of the night. Despite the mid-level clouds, low temperatures are expected to bottom out in the single digits with teens along the coast. With light/calm winds, wind chills will be pretty similar to the actual air temperature. As of now, no Cold Weather Advisories are warranted. However, if skies become clear, under light/calm winds and a fresh snowpack, temperatures may fall below zero. If this is the case, cold weather headlines may become warranted.

For Thursday, another tranquil weather day is expected. A weak coastal low is expected to develop off the coast of North Carolina along an inverted trough but will move out to sea by Thursday afternoon. Other than some high clouds across the Delmarva and southern New Jersey, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected around the region. With more of a south- southwesterly wind component, should begin to see some warmer temperatures advect into the region. As a result, expect highs mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s for Thursday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure will be south of the area Thursday night. Another frigid night, though maybe not quite as cold as it has been.
There may be just enough clouds and just enough winds for optimal radiational cooling conditions to develop, and lows will drop into the single digits in the southern Poconos, far northwest New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley, and from 10 to 15 across southeast Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey, and Delmarva.
It is still possible that temperatures could be colder in isolated areas where winds drop off and skies and clear.

A weak cold front passes through on Friday, though it will be quite dry, and not expecting any precipitation from it. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to the area. Highs will mainly be in the 20s to low 30s on Friday, and then lows Friday night will mostly be in the single digits. With clear skies and light winds, there may be some spots that could be even colder.

Some shortwave energy passing through the region Saturday may bring some clouds from time to time, and highs will be similar to Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A moderating trend will be on tap for the new week as a zonal flow develops at the surface. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep closed upper low will hover around Hudson Bay, and several troughs will spin around this low and pass through the Northeast. This will allow several weak shortwaves to pass through the Northeast.

In terms of sensible weather, dry conditions will mostly be on tap for the Long Term period. One cold front passes through on Sunday, generally bringing clouds with it, though no precipitation, and temperatures will be noticeably warmer with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Weak low pressure over the Gulf Coast states will lift to the north and east Sunday night and pass off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Some rain and/or snow is possible over southern Delmarva and extreme southeast New Jersey, but PoPs will be capped at slight chance, and PoPs have been trending down. If any precip does develop, it would be light. Although temperatures in the areas will be in the low 40s, the wet bulb effect will probably allow temperatures to drop off enough for snow. QPF would be minimal.

High pressure redevelops for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs around normal Tuesday in the upper 30s to low 40s, and highs on Wednesday will be above normal in the low to mid 40s.

AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. An increase in mid-level clouds after 21Z.
West-northwest winds around 5-8 kt becoming light and variable at times. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with SCT/BKN mid-level clouds. Winds light and variable becoming calm at times. High confidence.

Thursday...VFR with partly to mostly sunny skies. South- southwest winds around 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE
No marine headlines are in effect through Thursday. Northerly winds around 10 kt this afternoon will diminish to around 5-8 kt tonight with seas of 2 feet or less. For Thursday, winds will become westerly around 10-15 kt with seas around 2 feet. Fair weather expected through Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...Overall, a prolonged period of sub-SCA conditions, though wind gusts around 20 kt likely during the day. There is still the chance for some freezing spray Thursday night and Friday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.