Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Accident, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry weather prevails through Tuesday night

2) Active pattern returns Wednesday into the weekend, with daily shower/thunderstorm chances

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface high pressure was centered across western PA early this morning. The high will drift slowly eastward today and tonight, maintaining dry weather across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Rising 500 mb heights should result in temperatures a few degrees warmer than Monday, with highs just above seasonable levels.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A broad upper trough is expected to approach the region from the northern Plains and Upper Midwest region Wednesday, as a closed low across the Tennessee Valley drifts north. The low is progged to phase with the approaching trough, as moisture and lift begin to increase across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected by Wednesday afternoon into the evening. The overall flow is generally weak, with minimal shear. ML CAPE is generally progged from 500-1000 j/kg.
It appears any severe weather potential is limited.

The broad upper trough is then progged to persist across the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region through the weekend, into early next week. Individual shortwaves are expected to track through the main trough, resulting in daily shower and thunderstorm chances, with diurnal coverage trends. While uncertainty still exists, it appears the strongest wave is progged for a Friday into Saturday passage. While there will be a potential for severe storms and locally heavy rainfall, it remains too early for specific details, such as how cloud cover affects instability, etc, and how this affects the severe potential. This will be monitored over the next few days.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR is expected through the TAF period as high pressure moves east across the region. Model soundings and the CU rule indicate a few-sct cumulus deck with cigs ~5kft can be expected today.

Outlook...
VFR is expected through early Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, and associated restrictions, return later in the day Wednesday with an approaching trough. This trough will persist across the region into the weekend, supporting daily shower/storm chances, especially in the afternoon and evening.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.