Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Accident, MD
December 7, 2023 5:40 PM EST (22:40 UTC)
Sunrise 7:25AM Sunset 4:57PM Moonrise 1:49AM Moonset 1:47PM
Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 072101 AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 401 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
Confidence is increasing that above average temperatures and significant rainfall will overspread the Ohio River Valley this weekend as a deep and slow moving trough builds to our west.
Rain will likely change to snow with incoming cold front Sunday night into early Monday morning, snow accumulation may create hazardous travel within the ridges.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Warmer temperatures aloft will filter into eastern OH/western PA from the west with a building ridge throughout the rest of the evening. Confidence is high that temperatures will be near or a few degrees above normal this afternoon, ranging in the mid-40s to upper-40s in the lower elevations and upper-30s/low-40s in the higher terrain.
Confidence is high that wind gusts will remain above 30mph in the higher terrain through early Friday morning with mountain wave activity. Wind gusts as high as 40mph will likely occur the higher terrain of Tucker County through 6am Friday.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above average under strong southerly flow across the Ohio River Valley Friday night.
Clouds will increase from west to east as upper-lvl moisture associated with a low over the Midwest overspreads the region.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Saturday may be the warmest day in the long term forecast period if precipitation holds off until late afternoon due to low-lvl dry air. Probabilities remain elevated (above 70%) that areas near and south of Pittsburgh will climb into the upper-50/low-60s before rain advances into the region with our next disturbance. Breezy conditions with diurnal heating and boundary layer mixing of strong low-lvl winds is expected after 12pm Saturday for areas west of Pittsburgh. Probabilities of 20mph to 30mph gusts are above 70%.
Significant rainfall is expected to occur Sunday as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico advects into the region as a deep trough digs into the Mississippi River Valley and slowly advances across the Ohio River Valley. Probability of 1.0 inch of rainfall in a 24hr time period is high across a large portion of region (above 70%) through late Sunday night. The probability of exceeding 2.0 inches of precipitation is low (less than 20%).
However, it isn't zero and a few isolated areas may see localized higher amounts with stronger convection. In fact, thunderstorms may develop early Sunday morning with noted elevated instability within model soundings.
The probability of heavy rainfall decreases after 10pm Sunday as cold air aloft advances and rain quickly chances into a wintry mix followed by snow. With the ridges expected to see the snow change over sooner than the lower elevations, noted accumulation will likely occur over the Laurel Highlands (for elevations above 2kft). The probability of 2 inches in eastern Tucker is high, above 80%. However, the probability of 6 inches of more is low (below 10%). A Winter Weather Advisory may need to be issued if confidence continues to remain high for this projected outcome. Elsewhere, low accumulations (less than 0.5 inches) is expected given snow character leaning more on the wet side opposed to dry and fluffy.
High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley on Monday with northwest flow and some upslope snows continuing over the ridges. 500 mb height rises on the order of 150 meters occur, setting the stage for a return to near normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday as surface high settles over the eastern states.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR expected through the TAF period as ridging builds over the region. A relatively strong pressure gradient along with mixing with stronger winds aloft will support wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots out of the southwest into late afternoon. Skies should be mostly clear by evening as surface ridging rides north into the Upper Ohio Valley, with diminishing wind as decoupling ensues.
VFR conditions and generally light wind will continue through the night.
OUTLOOK
VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday morning. The next impactful system with associated restrictions and rain is expected late Saturday through Sunday.
HYDROLOGY
Widespread rain of 1 to 2 inches is expected for most of the Upper Ohio River Valley Saturday night into Sunday. Rapid rises are expected Sunday night due to runoff. With rivers run below average across the region, the probability of river forecast points approaching flood stage is low. Local tributaries may be impacted in areas with localized heavy amounts.
With the latest GEFS run, probability of Stillwater Creek at Uhrichvilles approaching flood stage is 20% while the grand ensemble of Hi-Res guidance suggest only a 39% chance of reach "Action" stage.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 401 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
Confidence is increasing that above average temperatures and significant rainfall will overspread the Ohio River Valley this weekend as a deep and slow moving trough builds to our west.
Rain will likely change to snow with incoming cold front Sunday night into early Monday morning, snow accumulation may create hazardous travel within the ridges.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Warmer temperatures aloft will filter into eastern OH/western PA from the west with a building ridge throughout the rest of the evening. Confidence is high that temperatures will be near or a few degrees above normal this afternoon, ranging in the mid-40s to upper-40s in the lower elevations and upper-30s/low-40s in the higher terrain.
Confidence is high that wind gusts will remain above 30mph in the higher terrain through early Friday morning with mountain wave activity. Wind gusts as high as 40mph will likely occur the higher terrain of Tucker County through 6am Friday.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above average under strong southerly flow across the Ohio River Valley Friday night.
Clouds will increase from west to east as upper-lvl moisture associated with a low over the Midwest overspreads the region.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Saturday may be the warmest day in the long term forecast period if precipitation holds off until late afternoon due to low-lvl dry air. Probabilities remain elevated (above 70%) that areas near and south of Pittsburgh will climb into the upper-50/low-60s before rain advances into the region with our next disturbance. Breezy conditions with diurnal heating and boundary layer mixing of strong low-lvl winds is expected after 12pm Saturday for areas west of Pittsburgh. Probabilities of 20mph to 30mph gusts are above 70%.
Significant rainfall is expected to occur Sunday as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico advects into the region as a deep trough digs into the Mississippi River Valley and slowly advances across the Ohio River Valley. Probability of 1.0 inch of rainfall in a 24hr time period is high across a large portion of region (above 70%) through late Sunday night. The probability of exceeding 2.0 inches of precipitation is low (less than 20%).
However, it isn't zero and a few isolated areas may see localized higher amounts with stronger convection. In fact, thunderstorms may develop early Sunday morning with noted elevated instability within model soundings.
The probability of heavy rainfall decreases after 10pm Sunday as cold air aloft advances and rain quickly chances into a wintry mix followed by snow. With the ridges expected to see the snow change over sooner than the lower elevations, noted accumulation will likely occur over the Laurel Highlands (for elevations above 2kft). The probability of 2 inches in eastern Tucker is high, above 80%. However, the probability of 6 inches of more is low (below 10%). A Winter Weather Advisory may need to be issued if confidence continues to remain high for this projected outcome. Elsewhere, low accumulations (less than 0.5 inches) is expected given snow character leaning more on the wet side opposed to dry and fluffy.
High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley on Monday with northwest flow and some upslope snows continuing over the ridges. 500 mb height rises on the order of 150 meters occur, setting the stage for a return to near normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday as surface high settles over the eastern states.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR expected through the TAF period as ridging builds over the region. A relatively strong pressure gradient along with mixing with stronger winds aloft will support wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots out of the southwest into late afternoon. Skies should be mostly clear by evening as surface ridging rides north into the Upper Ohio Valley, with diminishing wind as decoupling ensues.
VFR conditions and generally light wind will continue through the night.
OUTLOOK
VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday morning. The next impactful system with associated restrictions and rain is expected late Saturday through Sunday.
HYDROLOGY
Widespread rain of 1 to 2 inches is expected for most of the Upper Ohio River Valley Saturday night into Sunday. Rapid rises are expected Sunday night due to runoff. With rivers run below average across the region, the probability of river forecast points approaching flood stage is low. Local tributaries may be impacted in areas with localized heavy amounts.
With the latest GEFS run, probability of Stillwater Creek at Uhrichvilles approaching flood stage is 20% while the grand ensemble of Hi-Res guidance suggest only a 39% chance of reach "Action" stage.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
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