Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Accident, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1) Showers and thunderstorm through early this morning. Low potential for severe storms south of I 70.

2) Gusty wind the remainder of today

3) Widespread rain chances return Sunday and Monday

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to track across the region this morning along a prefrontal trough, and with a 55-65 kt 850 mb jet. Instability is limited, though a low severe storm potential exists south of I-70 given a strong wind field aloft, and 50-60kt of shear from 0-6km. Damaging wind is expected to be the main hazard, though an isolated tornado is also possible given strong speed and directional shear, resulting in curved hodographs (as seen on the 00Z ILN sounding.) North of I-70, a few showers are still expected, though water vapor imagery shows dry advection occuring, ending the severe weather potential.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A strong surface low will track across southern Ontario today, pulling a cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
A strong gradient, and mixing down of strong wind aloft will result in a windy day across the area. Gusts from 35-45 mph are likely across the lower elevations, with gusts around 50 mph across the higher terrain of WV and the Laurel Highlands.
BUFKIT momentum transfer does show some potential for advisory level gusts across portions of the lower elevations as well, though HRRR and NBM probabilities are around 30 percent or lower.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
After minimal shower chances Saturday with a weak crossing shortwave, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday into Monday as another surface low tracks across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Current probability of one inch of rain range from 60-70 percent according to the latest NBM output. Machine learning output indicates at least some potential for severe weather, though plenty of uncertainty still exists in the track of the low and severe potential.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to track across the region through early morning. A strong low level jet should maintain some thunder potential despite less than optimal instability. Included a TEMPO thunder mention for MGW and LBE overnight, with predominant showers. Gusty wind (up to 40kt) is possible with the stronger storms that mix down wind aloft. A brief period of MVFR cigs are expected as the showers and thunderstorms begin to taper off early this morning, though these should improve to VFR levels before scattering out into a cu layer for most airports through the afternoon.

Strong wind aloft and mixing will result in WSW wind gusts from 35 to 40 kt across the region, with the highest gusts across the higher terrain at LBE. Wind should diminish this evening with an exiting jet and the loss of mixing.

Outlook...
General VFR is expected through part of Sunday, though a weak shortwave could spark scattered showers Saturday afternoon.
Otherwise, more widespread restrictions return late Sunday into Monday with crossing low pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ074-076.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for WVZ510>514.