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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 933 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through this evening...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.

ANZ500 933 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure gradually build south of the waters today before sliding offshore Thursday. Additional small craft advisories might be needed for portions of the waters this afternoon into tonight due to southerly channeling. Another frontal system moves through the area by late in the week, with small craft advisories possible Thursday night and Friday. Additional weak disturbances move across the waters this weekend into early next week.

FXUS61 KLWX 291417 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 917 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Chilly temperatures and less wind are expected today as high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will start to warm Thursday as high pressure slides offshore. Rain chances return to the region Friday as an area of low pressure and it's associated cold front push east from the Ohio River Valley. Additional precipitation chances are expected through the weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Broad high pressure builds to the south of the region today.
Light southwest flow has already developed over most of the area this morning. Southwest winds will remain sustained between 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph heading into mid to late afternoon. Expect a slight boost in temperatures today as highs reach the low 40s for many locations east of the Blue Ridge, while mountain locations push back toward freezing.

Dry conditions continue tonight as high pressure shifts offshore. Widespread lows in the mid to upper 20s. The higher ridges could be slightly warmer, temps right around freezing while sheltered valley locations bottom out in the teens and 20s heading into Thursday morning. Wind chill factors will fall back into the upper teens and low to mid 20s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
High pressure continues to push off the southeastern U.S coast Thursday allowing for increased southwesterly flow. Dry conditions will continue to prevail while temperatures warm back into the upper 40s and low to mid 50s. Cloud cover will increase as a result of the uptick in moisture with any precipitation likely to hold off until late week.

Synoptically, we are looking at a zonal upper level flow pattern with several embedded weak waves of shortwave energy to round out the workweek. The first wave comes in the form of an area of low pressure and it's associated front set to approach from the Ohio River Valley late Thursday night into Friday. Dry conditions are likely to persists Thursday with the residual antecedent dry airmass in play while precipitation chances increase with consistency amongst the latest 00z guidance. Most of the precipitation will fall in the form of rain and should be generally light with QPF amounts less than a quarter of an inch. Still monitoring the potential for a brief mix of snow and sleet over the cooler pockets of the Alleghenies late Thursday night into early Friday morning pending how quickly precipitation can arrive. Any wintry precipitation should remain fairly light with little to no accumulation expected.
Friday temperatures will start in the low to mid 30s west of the Blue Ridge with upper 30s further east. High temperatures Friday afternoon will warm back into the upper 40s and low 50s with increased southwesterly flow. Breezy conditions will alsO return with south to southwesterly winds at 10 to 15 mph gusting up to 25 mph at times Friday afternoon and evening.

By Friday night, best isentropic lift is forecast well north of the of the region with the best instability passing south along the Gulf Coast. This puts our area in a bit of a dry slot heading into the start of the weekend. Rain chances fall back into the slight chance range with a focus west of the Allegheny Front and south east toward the Delmarva/eastern VA. Overnight lows Friday night will fall back into the upper 30s and low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A series of shortwave troughs in NW flow will carve out a longwave trough over the East early next week bringing a return to more seasonable temperatures. One weak area of low pressure is expected to move across the area Saturday bringing light rain to the Alleghenies and southern MD. A second stronger area of low pressure is expected to develop over the area Monday afternoon bringing another round of rain showers to lower elevations and a significant threat of snow showers/squalls to the mountains Monday through Wednesday which may eventually require winter headlines and/or snow squall warnings. Conditions begin to improve during the second half of next week, but remaining on the chilly side.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are expected with broad high pressure building south of the region today before sliding offshore Thursday. Winds have shifted to southwest early this morning, and will increase slightly in the afternoon with occasional gusts between 15 to 20 kts. South to southwesterly winds gradually lighten to around 10 kts or less tonight into Thursday.

Mid and high level cloud cover will start to increase Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. (SCT-BKN) VFR cigs are expected during this time with any MVFR restrictions holding off until Friday as an area of low pressure approaches from the Ohio River Valley.

MVFR conditions Friday into Friday night with light rain bringing reduced VSBYs and lower CIGs. Winds will increase from the south at 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Friday and Friday night.
Additional periods of sub-VFR conditions are likely Saturday through Monday as weak pieces of energy pass through.

MARINE
Winds have dropped below SCA criteria this morning, though it is expected that winds ramp up again late afternoon into tonight.
Small Craft Advisories go into effect by sunset for all the waters, as southerly channeling causes winds to gust to 20-25KT.

Winds drop back below SCA levels Thursday morning, though additional SCAs are likely needed for southerly channeling again Thursday afternoon and evening.

SCAs will be possible Friday and Friday night with southwest winds at 10 to 20 knots. Winds are expected to remain below SCA level Saturday. Winds could approach SCA levels Sunday amidst NW/NNW flow.

SCA conditions likely on Monday with potential for gales Monday night.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ534-537-543.

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Port Deposit
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Wed -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:52 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:34 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:23 AM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:05 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
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Wed -- 01:56 AM EST     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:50 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:51 AM EST     1.89 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:33 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:14 AM EST     -0.10 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:56 PM EST     -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:53 PM EST     0.10 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:46 PM EST     2.28 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current, knots

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