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FXUS61 KILN 041055 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 555 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
A series of disturbances keep precipitation in the forecast for the first half of the work week before high pressure takes over mid week. A warming trend occurs late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Most recent satellite imagery depicts mid level clouds overspreading the region ahead of the shortwave disturbance.
Have tweaked temperatures and dew points slightly to reflect latest observations, but otherwise no significant changes to the forecast.

Previous discussion-> A quick moving shortwave disturbance will be pivoting east through the larger flow, swinging through the Tennessee Valley region at the start of the period. This brings a chance for rain showers primarily along and south of the Ohio River during Monday daytime hours, tapering of by evening.
Monday daytime highs reach the 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Brief (and weak) ridging moves into the region Monday evening in between shortwave systems and the area dries out as deep layer moisture is pulled away. Overnight lows drop to the low 30s.

The next shortwave disturbance quickly arrives from the west during the early morning hours Tuesday. A plume of deep layer moisture begins to creep into our western counties by ~09Z Tuesday morning, with the sfc-500mb column becoming saturated by 12Z. Soundings indicate high RHs through the DGZ and temperature profiles below freezing through the entire column for most areas along and north of I-70. With that being said, expecting the initial precipitation to fall as a wet snow Tuesday morning in our northern counties. Given low SLRs, anticipate only 1/2 to 3/4 inch of wet accumulation on grassy or elevated areas. Not too concerned with major impacts as road surface temperature forecasts keep road temperatures above freezing, even in our northernmost counties. A gradual transition to rain during the afternoon hours is expected.

As for our southern counties... precipitation is likely to fall as all rain (although, if you're awake right at precipitation onset early Tuesday, you might see some brief mix). Temperatures on Tuesday rise to the mid 40s in the south, upper 30s in the north.

The most widespread precipitation will move off to the east by Tuesday afternoon, however, scattered showers linger with pockets of lift. These may, once again, transition briefly to flurries during the overnight hours into Wednesday as temperatures fall once again. Overnight lows Tuesday night drop to the low 30s in the cold air advection regime behind the shortwave.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Mid level trough will be exiting off to the east on Wednesday.
Although we will be drying out, clouds will linger in the post frontal CAA. Highs will be seasonably chilly, ranging from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

For the period Wednesday night into Thursday, a mid level ridge is forecast to build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the same time, a surface ridge axis will move east/southeast across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. It will be dry with increasing sunshine expected on Thursday as clouds depart to the east. It will become breezy on the back side of the surface ridge, especially across our northwest zones. After lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, it will warm up in the developing WAA pattern, with highs climbing into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

For the period Thursday night into Friday, the mid level ridge is forecast to shift east. We will remain between the departing high off the southeast U.S. coast and a frontal system and developing low pressure across the Plains. With a continued decent pressure gradient, breezy to even locally windy conditions can be expected.
Lows in the upper 30s to the lower 40s will rebound into the 50s area wide.

We will continue to monitor the development of the next weather system to affect the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for the upcoming weekend. Models have been advertising that a long wave trough carving out across the Plains will rotate east/northeast into our region this weekend. Low pressure over the southern Plains is forecast to track northeast across the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes during this period. The strength and exact track of the low still has some uncertainty at this juncture, but the most likely track will likely be to our west, which would keep our region on the warm side of the system until frontal passage sometime on Sunday.
Thus, increasing chances of pcpn in the form of rain will be in the forecast Friday night into Saturday, and continuing into Sunday.
Some models indicate that we could receive a good soaker with 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday will remain warm with highs in the 50s to the lower 60s. A cool down will begin on Sunday with highs ranging from the lower 40s northwest to the lower 50s east/southeast.

By Sunday night into Monday, much colder air will filter southeast into the our region as robust low pressure continues to lift off to the northeast. This will keep a chance of rain and/or snow over the area. Lows in the mid 20s to the lower 30s Monday will only rise into the 30s to lower 40s on Monday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Some MVFR CIGs lingering at our northernmost TAF sites, however, expect these to lift shortly. A disturbance approaches from the southwest, and rain showers are likely in Kentucky during Monday daytime hours, but confidence of shower activity along and north of the Ohio River is lower, therefore, did not include in TAFs for now.

Mid level clouds linger throughout the day and not expecting any major VSBY or CIG restrictions. Winds around 5 knots out of the northwest.

A gradual lowering of CIGs is expected Monday evening into overnight ahead of the next system poised to move through the area. Precipitation with this system arrives during early hours Tuesday. Sites along and north of I-70 will likely see some wet snow/ wintry mix while sites to the south will see rain. Have introduced this in longer CVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible at times through Tuesday. MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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