Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Amanda, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A very weak system with limited moisture availability will continue to progress through the region through late afternoon, bringing with it some spotty light SN or FZDZ, particularly near/north of the I-70 corridor. The midlevel disturbance will flatten with eastward extent within the broad SW flow aloft, leading to a decrease in coverage of the light pcpn late in the day except along the front itself. The 07.12Z KILN RAOB depicts quite a bit of dry air in the lower part of the sounding, from about H7 to near the sfc, with some very shallow moisture near the sfc leading to some BR this morning. Even still, moisture availability/depth in the DGZ remains marginal at best, so do think that any snow accumulation in WC OH will remain fairly limited (generally one half of an inch or less) into mid afternoon, with sub-optimal dendrite growth potential. Additionally, road temps are warming well above freezing, limiting the potential for travel difficulties.

Elsewhere, we will be locked in the clouds through the daytime, with temps nudging up only a few degrees into midday. Daytime highs will range from the lower 30s in WC OH to the lower 40s near/S of the OH Rvr.

The main item of interest for tonight is another weak disturbance, which will be progressing W to E across the nrn TN Vly. This system, while a bit stronger than the one impacting the nrn OH Vly this morning with light wintry pcpn, will be quite a bit further S, with an expectation for the nrn fringe of the pcpn shield to graze the srn half or third of the ILN FA late tonight into Monday morning.

While the forcing/lift and moisture availability will be rather meager with northward extent into N KY and far SW/srn OH, there is a signal for some light snow in these areas, particularly after midnight through mid-morning Monday. The fcst soundings show very shallow/marginal moisture in the DGZ, with most of the saturation centered between the sfc and H7. Even though the DGZ is somewhat deep, it is fairly dry. Additionally, ensemble probs are only at about 50% for measurable snow in parts of N KY through Monday morning, lending itself to some uncertainty regarding accumulation potential in these areas, although the timing itself is of some concern. The Monday AM commute is likely to be impacted by at least /some/ light snow stretching from the Tri-State through far srn OH and most of N KY, even with ensemble probs favoring less than an inch for most (or all) of the local area. Air temps will be settling to near freezing from Owen Co through Lewis Co KY by 09z, with upper 20s a bit further N, with the expectation for road sfc temps to get near or slightly below freezing after 09z. So even though the snow won't be particularly heavy, untreated sfc conditions should be receptive to light accumulation, especially considering the time of the day.
Will mention this potential in the HWO, with an SPS very likely to be warranted at some point.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Weak CAA will be ongoing during the day Monday, but some diurnal response is expected as temps nudge up 8-10 degrees by the afternoon from morning lows. This will especially be the case as we get into some sunshine by mid/late afternoon. Partly cloudy skies will evolve late in the day just about everywhere as the morning system pulls to the E. Highs will reach into the mid 20s in EC IN and WC OH to the mid 30s near/S of the OH Rvr, which will still be about 10 degrees below seasonal norms.

A cold night is on tap Monday night as a narrow ridge of sfc high pressure drifts E into the region by late evening. Temps will drop quickly after sunset with light winds and clearing skies, but will plateau late in the night as clouds move in and some WAA begins to become established once again during the predawn hours. In fact, temps will likely nudge up a few degrees past 09z (particularly near/NW of the I-71 corridor) as SW sfc flow strengthens with the tightening of the pressure gradient as a sfc low darts E across the nrn Great Lakes. This will set the stage for a breezy Tuesday for the OH Vly.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A weak mid level short wave will pass quickly east across the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. The better forcing and moisture with this system looks to remain to our north so the main impact will just be an increase in clouds. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south.

A somewhat stronger short wave will drop southeast out of the upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday night and across the upper Ohio Valley through the day on Wednesday. Increasing southwest flow ahead of this will lead to breezy conditions through the day with wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range possible. In the developing WAA, Wednesday looks to be our warmest day with temperatures up near normal, with daytime highs into the 40s. Moisture will also be on the increase and this will allow for fairly widespread rain to develop late Tuesday night and overspread the area into the day on Wednesday.
Pcpn should then begin to taper off heading into Wednesday night as the short wave moves off to the east and an associated cold front pushes southeast through our area.

A cooler airmass will begin to settle into the area behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday. There are some model differences with the strength, timing and placement of some additional mid level energy that will move across the Ohio Valley region through the day on Thursday. This could lead to some snow across the region but given the uncertainty, will just limit pops to chance category for now. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Yet another mid level short wave will drop down through the Upper Plains/Great Lakes regions as we head toward the weekend. This will help carve out a deeper upper level trough over the eastern CONUS.
and usher in a very cold airmass through end of the long term period. Daytime highs by Saturday and Sunday will only be in the teens to lower 20s. It will also be tough to rule out some scattered snow showers at times given the potential for any embedded mid level energy and/or some flow off of the the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
While some spotty MVFR VSBY may continue across the area for the first hour or so of the TAF period, conditions will very briefly improve to VFR quickly before CIGs go back to MVFR progressively from NW to SE between 19z-22z with the approach of a front. CIGs may briefly go IFR for nrn sites between about 00z-06z before some clearing evolves from N to S between 06z-15z.

The main item of interest for the TAF period is going to be the potential for some light SN evolving for srn sites of KCVG/KLUK (and potentially KILN) between about 05z-11z. This SN may lead to brief MVFR VSBY, particularly at KCVG/KLUK where coverage/intensity may be the most robust. But otherwise, this SN will drift to the E of the local terminals after daybreak, with a clearing trend expected after 12z.

Light SW winds early will quickly go out of the N after 21z following the FROPA, increasing out of the NE to 10-15kts, with gusts 15-20kts, between 01z-07z before slowly subsiding toward daybreak and beyond.

OUTLOOK.. MVFR to IFR CIGs are likely Wednesday into Thursday. MVFR VSBYs are possible with snow on Thursday. Gusty winds to 35kts are possible Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.