Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Eagle, CO

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:30PM Sunday July 12, 2020 5:53 PM MDT (23:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:09PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eagle, CO
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location: 39.63, -106.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Junction, CO
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FXUS65 KGJT 122326 AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 526 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SHORT TERM. (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

It's pretty obvious that moisture has increased across eastern Utah and the Western Slope thanks to the increased clouds, rain (!), and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, the sub-cloud environment remains very dry so most of the rain is evaporating before hitting the ground but we've seen a few reports of some light showers across the region. PWATs yesterday morning at the GJT office were .24 inches and this morning they jumped up to .63 inches. A definite increase and with a weak disturbance moving overhead today, that's all that was needed to get some convection going. As you'd expect, some gusty and erratic winds are the main concern and wouldn't ya know, Meeker just came in with a gust of 39 mph. These types of winds will continue for the rest of the day under and near the showers and storms that form. Most convection should die down between sunset and midnight but some models, especially the NAMNEST, does show another weak disturbance moving through overnight, around 3AM, bringing an uptick to showers and even some thunderstorms mixed in. The I-70 corridor looks favored though some returns over the northern valleys, and Grand Mesa are also showing up. By daybreak, areas along the Divide will see a few showers, maybe a quick rumble of thunder, before the disturbance rushes eastward.

On Monday, a weak boundary will approach from the northwest and be the focus for another round of convection. Going by the NAMNEST, convection will start firing over higher terrain around noon down south and along the boundary up north as it drops southeastward. Support for the boundary is very weak and models suggesting it won't make it over the Book Cliffs so the focus will remain over that area. Coverage looks to be a bit more than seen today with a few stronger cells possible. Hot temperatures will remain in place though cloud cover should keep highs a wee bit lower than seen over the last few days.

The current heat advisory remains in effect for the valleys in southeast Utah including Arches and Canyonlands National Parks, the Grand Flat, and Natural Bridges as hot temperatures will remain in place.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

On Tuesday the positively-tilted midlevel trough lifts out over the northern plains, which will focus a majority of the afternoon convection along and east of the Divide. It will also shunt the sub-tropical moisture south and east of the area, but not complete scour it out. Deep boundary layer mixing will allow enhanced winds associated with the northern wave to reach the surface. The gradient will not be as tight as during the day tomorrow, but enough to have concerns for critical fire weather. The highest wind speeds will occur over northwest Colorado and gradually decrease towards the Four Corner region. Although it appears red flag criteria will still be met in southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. As a result the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag for Tuesday afternoon. The lingering moisture will be confined to the mountains so those elevations look to keep slightly higher RH during peak heating.

The shortwave quickly moves to our east on Wednesday, allowing mid and upper level winds to relax. This will reduce critical fire weather concerns. The models still agree that the high pressure will for the most part remain centered over the southern plains. Meanwhile a wave cuts off over southern California and potentially becomes closed. This is a favorable pattern for sub-tropical moisture to advect into the region from the Desert Southwest, and the models are generating much more QPF in our area late week and into next weekend. A gradual uptick in convection each day appears likely, especially in the southern and central mountains given proximity to the richest moisture. The models are even hinting at the potential for subtle waves riding the western edge of the ridge, which would enhance the lift. Surface dew points are creeping into the 40s in the valleys and 30s in the mountains beginning on Friday and lasting perhaps into Sunday. If you want appreciable rainfall this is the right trend. The big question is it seems the drought is having an affect on low-level moisture quality, so are these dews overdone.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 526 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon, favoring areas north of I-70. Gusty outflow winds to 35 knots will be the primary threat with convection. Most activity will diminish between 03Z and 06Z this evening, though isolated showers may linger overnight. Similar conditions are expected on Monday with storms redeveloping over the higher terrain by 18Z. Breezy conditions will develop across the majority of the region with frequent gusts of 20 to 30 knots likely.

FIRE WEATHER. Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Red Flag conditions will occur on Monday and Tuesday as stronger wind flow aloft moves in. Strong surface heating will lead to high mixing heights and momentum transfer to the surface, resulting in gusty afternoon winds. Low humidities remain in place and with dry fuels still in place, critical fire weather conditions will exist. A bit of concern that increased cloud cover may inhibit 'some' of the stronger winds reaching the surface but outside of that, both Red Flags look good.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CO . Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ200-202- 203-207-290-292.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ200-202- 203-207-290-292.

UT . Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ486-487- 490-491.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ487-490- 491.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT Monday for UTZ022-027>029.



SHORT TERM . TGR LONG TERM . KJS AVIATION . TGJT FIRE WEATHER . TGJT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eagle County Regional, CO6 mi57 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F37°F19%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEGE

Wind History from EGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW14
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W12W10S4SE3E8SE4CalmE5CalmSE6E3E4NW3CalmCalmCalm3W7W22
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1 day agoW10W11W7CalmE6E6E3N4SE5SE3S3CalmSE3E4CalmCalmCalmW33Calm6SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Junction, CO (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Junction, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.