Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Foxfield, CO

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:49PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 2:56 PM MDT (20:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:07PMMoonset 11:54AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Foxfield, CO
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location: 39.64, -104.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 212042
afdbou
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
242 pm mdt Wed aug 21 2019

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 221 pm mdt Wed aug 21 2019
east winds around a large surface high over the great lakes will
help keep low level moisture across northeast colorado. Dew points
are expected to stay in the mid to upper 50s with precipitable
water values around an inch. With surface temperatures in mid 80s,
surface based capes are 1500-2500 j kg. The 12z sounding at dnr
and amdar soundings show a strong cap around 650mb. Storms are
expected to continue to form over the mountains and foothills
where they should be able to bust through the cap. Storms are then
expected to slowly track east-southeast. Models indicate storms
will have a tough time surviving north of i-70 and east of line
from akron to limon because of the cap. Lowered pops over the
northeast corner, but kept 40-60 pops for the front range and near
by plains. Some of the storms should be strong to severe with
hail, strong winds, and very heavy rain. Convection is expected to
end by 06z as the airmass stabilizes.

On Thursday, an upper level trough will move into the northern
rockies. This will turn flow aloft southwesterly and bring drier
air to the mountains. There may be enough lift to produce a few
week showers and storms over the mountains. Models show an area of
convergence somewhere along the front range to the near by
plains. This should help trigger storms. Ml CAPE climbs to
1500-3000 j kg over the front range and eastern plains Thursday
afternoon. Southeast winds will be stronger over the plains and
result in better shear. This should lead to a few of the storms to
be strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy
rain. Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer with highs
in the mid to upper 80s across northeast colorado.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 221 pm mdt Wed aug 21 2019
further disorganization and weakening of the summer subtropical
ridge will take place over the weekend as the supply of mid and
upper level moisture to the rockies essentially gets shut off by
dry northwesterly flow aloft. Hot and dry conditions are expected
for the weekend and into early next week ahead of potentially much
cooler temps for NE colorado for the middle to latter portion of
next week. Potential critical fire weather concerns may exist for
Sunday and Monday.

Starting with Thursday evening, the weak ridge axis over the
state Thursday will flatten into early Friday as a pacific short
wave trough treks over the northern us rockies along the us canada
border. This will leave the state under drier, moderate westerly
zonal flow aloft. This trough will send southward the first of
three cooler surges to northeast colorado in the extended period.

By midday Friday this cool front, associated with the northern
trough, will enter the northeast plains. At this time the front
looks nothing more than a strong northerly wind shift while aiding
to keeping temps slightly cooler in the 80s across the lower
elevations. Would also expect a lower cloud deck to develop over
the plains for late Friday night into early Saturday under stable
west-northwestly flow aloft. For Saturday, with dry conditions in
the mid and upper levels, this cooler morning airmass should be a
stabilizing feature for much of the day, however temps will
quickly rebound back into the 90s as the boundary layer mixes with
dry and warm mid-level temps by midday.

Heading into Sunday, as the upper trough which brought the cooler
surge moves across the northern us plains states, slight
strengthening of the upper ridge develops over the entire western
us in it's wake. This will allow for moderate to strong dry
northwestly flow aloft to dominate the state. This should bring a
hint of a dry, blue-sky, septemberlike day to the region Sunday.

This ridge should also fend off any northerly advection of
tropical moisture out of the baja region from tropical depressing
ten-e which is projected to move northwestward well off the baja
coast. Will need to monitor potential critical fire weather
concerns for Sunday as low rhs and potentially stronger
northwestly winds are likely, especially across the mountains and
foothills.

As moderate northwest flow dominates the rockies, another weak
impulse of energy rides southeastward across the northern us
plains states behind a closed upper low over southern manitoba.

This will force another slightly cooler wind shift onto NE co late
Monday into early Tuesday. With the dry ridge continuing to
dominate the rockies, will keep pops in the isolated category with
gusty afternoon storms Tuesday. Any critical fire weather
concerns on Sunday will also be there for Monday as potential dry
and gusty conditions may be present ahead of this late Monday,
early Tuesday surge, especially over the higher terrain.

With a dominant deep upper trough projected to hold over se
canada into mid-week, the third and coolest surge of the extended
spreads onto the high plains, including eastern co, late Tuesday
into early Wednesday. This surge, forced southward from strong
northwesterly flow aloft over southern canada and the northern
us, may bring daytime highs down into the 70s for Wednesday along
with the potential for higher pops. This is far off in time, but
if this upper pattern over N america materializes, the potential
for cooler temps across the northern states and high plains states
may increase for this mid to late next week timeframe.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 221 pm mdt Wed aug 21 2019
scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the foothills
this afternoon and spread east through the early evening hours.

Best chance for den to see thunderstorms will be 00z to 04z. For
kbjc and kapa the best chance will be slightly sooner 23z to 03z.

Large hail, winds to 50 knots, and heavy rainfall will accompany
the stronger storms.

Easterly winds are expected to continue through 00z with gusts up
to 20 knots. Outflow winds from nearby thunderstorms will produce
a wind shift or two at the denver airports. Once convection ends
this evening, winds will settle at a southerly drainage direction
at kapa and kden. Low clouds are expected to form over eastern
colorado with ceilings of 1000-3000 feet. There is a slight chance
these low clouds make it far enough west to impact kden.

Fire weather
Issued at 221 pm mdt Wed aug 21 2019
elevated fire danger conditions may materialize for Sunday and
Monday. Dry and stable conditions under moderate northwesterly
flow aloft are expected in this timeframe. At his time, the main
areas set for potential critical fire conditions would be the
mountains, high parks and eastern foothills as afternoon winds
over 25 mph combined with low relative humidities may develop.

Bou watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Meier
long term... Fredin
aviation... Meier
fire weather... Fredin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Denver - Centennial Airport, CO6 mi64 minNNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F57°F45%1014.9 hPa
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO7 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F57°F45%1015.2 hPa
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO16 mi64 minE 7 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F54°F39%1013.5 hPa
Denver Nexrad, CO17 mi2.2 hrsS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F55°F42%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPA

Wind History from APA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7
G18
----N3NE9
G15
E17
G25
----W6------W6--NE8E6SE5----SE64N6NE4Calm
1 day ago--53
G18
E10
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E7SE6SE6----------S33SW4S3SW7CalmSE5W3CalmN8NE12
G18
NE8
G20
2 days agoN7
G16
NE6N8NE8
G14
E7E9
G15
NE5SE13S10S9--S7----SW6SE3CalmCalmW7--W3W3Calm4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.