Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Foxfield, CO

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 5:56PM Thursday March 4, 2021 2:12 AM MST (09:12 UTC) Moonrise 12:18AMMoonset 10:44AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Foxfield, CO
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location: 39.64, -104.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 040404 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 904 PM MST Wed Mar 3 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 904 PM MST Wed Mar 3 2021

Skies remain clear and the weather mild this evening ahead of the next system. The cutoff low is advancing from the coast to the Rockies quickly and currently entering SW Utah. It is making good time to advance into CO tomorrow morning as expected and bring widespread precipitation to the area by tomorrow afternoon, and possibly even briefly tomorrow morning. We adjusted temperatures, PoP and QPF to incorporate the latest guidance and update forecast precipitation types and amounts slightly. This resulted in slightly earlier snowfall in the mountains, a greater chance for mixed precipitation over the urban corridor, and slightly higher forecast snowfall amounts in some of the favored areas of the high country, foothills, and Palmer Divide. Altogether, these adjustments do not change the timing and magnitude of the expected impacts of the weather event and we kept the Winter Weather Advisory for the Palmer Divide tomorrow evening in place. Other than the previously mentioned adjustments, the forecast is on track without major changes this evening.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 237 PM MST Wed Mar 3 2021

Short Term: Satellite pictures and observations are showing it cloud- free over the CWA at this time. Same as is was yesterday afternoon. Again, winds are pretty light across the CWA.

Upstream satellite pictures and cross sections keep it clear over the forecast area well past midnight tonight. The next system is currently centered just over the southwestern California coast. The models move that feature pretty quickly east-northeastward the next 24 hours. It is progged to be over the southeastern quarter of Colorado by 21Z-00Z Thursday afternoon. There is pretty strong upward Vertical velocity for the CWA according to the QG Omega fields after midnight tonight through late Thursday afternoon. Cloudiness should be moving into the CWA rapidly on Thursday morning, with the model QPF fields bringing precipitation in by around 15Z for the mountains, then across most of the forecast area by 20Z.

Will go with high pops over the alpine areas in the morning, then over much of the CWA in the afternoon. There is not a significantly colder airmass expected with this system. Temperatures and wet bulb zero model values point to a rain and snow combo for the plains by afternoon. The Palmer Divide and foothills look like snow will be the rule much of the day. Agreed to go with a Winter Weather Advisory for snowfall in the Palmer Divide Zone 41 starting mid Thursday afternoon going on into the evening hours.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 237 PM MST Wed Mar 3 2021

Upper level low over far southeast Colorado to begin Thursday evening will progress southeast across Oklahoma Thursday night. The rain/snow will taper off late Thursday evening and end around or a little before midnight. Tricky rain or snow forecast continues into the evening hours. Where heavy precipitation occurs, snow level could fall to around 4500 to 5000 feet. Areas of lighter precipitation snow level may stay around 6000 feet. Best chance for heavier snow is over Palmer Divide. The higher elevation should result in mostly snow. Gusty upslope northerly winds will help with the lift. Precipitation quickly exits the area Thursday night, with it being east of the area a little after midnight.

A progressive pattern will be in place Friday through the weekend. Northerly flow early Friday will be replaced by a ridge late in the day. Mild and dry conditions will return with highs well into the 50s over northeast Colorado. Upper level ridge progresses east across Colorado Friday night and early Saturday with southwest flow aloft for most of Saturday. It will be warm Saturday with highs in the 60s over northeast Colorado. A weak trough passes north of Colorado Saturday and a ridge quickly moves in behind it for Sunday. A few flurries will be possible over the northern mountains Saturday as the system passes to the north. Sunday will be mild again and only a few degrees cooler.

The general pattern Monday through Wednesday is for a large ridge over the eastern half of the country with troughiness over the west. Differences continue among the models, primarily with how quickly the upper level trough shifts eastward. The ECMWF keeps ridging and mild southwest flow aloft through Tuesday with a trough for Wednesday. While the GFS is about a day quicker, with the trough passing north of Colorado Tuesday. With southwest flow aloft for much or all of the period will have temperatures above normal with mid 50s to mid 60s across northeast Colorado. For PoPs, will have chances for the mountains Tuesday and Wednesday. With the possibility of a stronger trough on the ECMWF, will have low PoPs across the lower elevations Wednesday.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 904 PM MST Wed Mar 3 2021

Expect VFR conditions at all terminals until Thursday afternoon, when ceilings and visibility will decrease with widespread precipitation. Light showers in the vicinity of the terminals are possible before noon, but are not likely to reduce flight category. Light rain over the terminals should begin around or just after noon, with overcast skies and cloud bases below 6000 ft. Moderate N flow in the morning will increase in the afternoon and evening, with gusts up to 25 kt by the evening. Expect a rain- snow mix after sunset, turning to all snow later in the evening. Visibility should begin to fall quickly as precipitation turns from rain to mixed to snow, possibly under 1 SM with the heaviest snow in the evening. During that period, KAPA may see more snowfall than the other terminals due to its location close to a tight gradient of forecast snowfall directed up the Palmer Divide. Moderate N 10-15 kt upslope flow in that direction will likely mean heavier snowfall in the vicinity of the Palmer towards the end of the event. Conditions will improve quickly shortly after midnight with clearing behind the system as it exits. All terminals should return to VFR conditions by the early morning hours Friday.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 2 AM MST Friday for COZ041.



UPDATE . Direnzo SHORT TERM . RJK LONG TERM . Meier AVIATION . Direnzo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Denver - Centennial Airport, CO6 mi19 minSSE 710.00 miFair40°F12°F32%1013.3 hPa
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO7 mi14 minSSE 810.00 miFair38°F14°F37%1012.4 hPa
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO16 mi19 minS 710.00 miFair33°F16°F49%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPA

Wind History from APA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW8CalmE6S7S4CalmCalmCalmE4S54E5SE8S10S10SE6S10SE8E7CalmS9S7SE7
1 day agoS6S7SE4SW3SE3E4W3SW7CalmSE3E5SE5E8E5E8E4SE3S5S3CalmSW4SW4S4S6
2 days agoSW4S4S3SE3S4SE6S5S8S8S8S8SE8SE6S7S10S8S10S9S9S9S9SE5SE6SE3

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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