Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ship Bottom, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Patchy fog and frost possible this morning.

2. Elevated risk of rapid fire spread expected Saturday behind a mostly dry cold front. A mainly dry weather pattern continues through the weekend.

3. A significant warm up is expected for the early and middle part of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. Patchy fog and frost possible this morning.

A deck of stratus has developed over part of the area, mainly from the I-95 corridor and points south and east. Increased cloud cover will result in warmer temperatures, likely limiting the frost threat through the morning. However, low dewpoint depressions will result in some patchy fog developing. Will keep an eye on observations but thinking that visibilities mainly near and along the NJ coast and Delmarva drop later this morning to as low as a half mile.
Do not think there will be widespread dense fog, so do not plan to issue any advisories at this point. Visibility should quickly improve by 8- 9 AM.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated risk of rapid fire spread expected Saturday behind a mostly dry cold front. A mainly dry weather pattern continues through the weekend.

A cold front will move through the region tonight. A few light showers may accompany the frontal passage, mainly up in the Poconos, though as of right now, the potential for a wetting rainfall remains low (15% chance or less).

Widespread RHs around 25-35% are expected to follow on Saturday with northwest wind gusts potentially increasing to around 25-35 mph. Fuel moistures will likely continue to decrease across the region as well with the continued dry conditions.
Saturday continues to bear watching for fire weather concerns, as a result. Sunday may bear watching as well, with dry conditions continuing through the end of the weekend, though wind gusts will likely be lower, around 15-25 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warm up is expected for the early and middle part of next week.

After a seasonable weekend, a significant warming trend will likely take place across the area early next week. High pressure will initially build back in across the region in the wake of the cold front this weekend, before shifting east and allowing for a prolonged period of return flow. By mid-week, high temperatures could surge well into the 80s across much of the area, with overnight lows only falling into the 60s. 90 is not out of the question in the typical hot spots.

A series of weak disturbances could bring a slight chance (15-25%) for showers Monday and Tuesday, primarily for areas northwest of the I-95 corridor. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain dry until Wednesday into Thursday, when a cold front may move through the area from the northwest.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through this morning (16z).. MVFR/IFR CIGs expected to continue as the morning goes on. Patchy fog is expected towards the coast, potentially impacting KMIV/KACY with VSBYs under 1SM. Areas of fog likely develop right up to the I-95 terminals but kept fog out of the I-95 TAFs except for KTTN. Conditions should quickly improve to VFR between 12z-13z.

Confidence is low overall in timing and extent of restrictions.

This Afternoon...VFR. Southerly winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds start out around 5-10 kt out of the southwest with some low-level wind shear ahead of a cold front. Winds shift quickly and become northwesterly sometime after 04z, around 10 kt.
Slight chance of showers (20%) at KRDG/KABE but not expecting any restrictions at this time. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE
Tranquil weather expected on the waters this morning with sub-SCA conditions expected. Seas build a bit this afternoon and tonight, getting near 5 to 6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for this afternoon, continuing through tonight. Winds generally out of the south/southwest around 10-20 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday...SCA conditions possible with seas lingering near 5 feet.

Saturday night through Sunday...No marine hazards anticipated.
Winds under 25 kt. Seas under 5 feet.

Sunday night through Monday night...SCA conditions possible.
Southerly winds gusting near 25 kt. Seas increase to 4-6 feet.

Tuesday...No marine hazards anticipated. Winds under 25 kt.
Seas under 5 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>452.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ453>455.