Cumberland, MD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cumberland, MD

April 14, 2024 4:55 AM EDT (08:55 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM
Moonrise 9:49 AM   Moonset 1:00 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cumberland, MD
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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 140800 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will track to our north today, and eventually drag a cold front southward across the area later tonight into the day tomorrow. This front will return northward as a warm front during the day Wednesday. A cold front will move through the area late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A weak mid-level disturbance and associated surface low will track from the Great Lakes toward upstate NY today.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in the vicinity of the system's cold front, which will stretch from upstate NY into northern PA and OH. This activity should remain to our north during the daylight hours, with mostly sunny skies forecast locally. High temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s for most. Winds will pick up out of the southwest this afternoon, with gusts of 25-35 mph possible during the late afternoon hours.

The aforementioned thunderstorms will drop southward toward the area tonight, reaching northern Maryland and portions of the WV Panhandle during the mid-late evening hours. The trend should be for these storms to weaken as they move into the area, but an instance or two of damaging winds or large hail may be possible across western MD or the WV Panhandle before the storms weaken further. Locations to the north of I-66/US-50 could experience a brief shower or storm during the first half of the night before storms totally decay. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 50s to near 60 overnight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A cold front will continue to slowly drift southward across the forecast area during the day tomorrow. Much of the area should remain dry, but a few thunderstorms may form on the warm side of the boundary from central Virginia to southern Maryland during the afternoon hours. Model soundings show around 1000-1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE, with around 35-40 knots of shear in a straight hodograph (westerly flow through the column). Both low and mid-level lapse rates are steep, with the mid-level lapse rates uncommonly steep at around 8 degrees C/km.
Multicells or a marginal supercell may be capable of producing damaging winds or severe hail in such an environment. SPC currently has far southern portions of the forecast area outlooked in a Marginal risk. Further north, mostly sunny skies are expected. It will be a warm day for all, with highs generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s (60s mountains).

A closed upper low will track eastward onto the Central Plains on Tuesday. A weak band of warm advection aloft well in advance of the system may potentially lead to the development of a few showers or a thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon well in advance of the system across central Virginia, the Shenandoah Valley, or the mountains. This slight chance for a storm will spread northeastward overnight. However, most locations should remain dry. Temperatures on Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler, but still above normal for mid-April, with highs generally in the 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As one expansive upper trough exits into the Canadian Maritimes, additional shortwave energy pushes across the Ohio Valley late Wednesday. Height falls associated with this system largely stay confined to areas north of the Mid-Atlantic region. A brief period of height rises ensues on Thursday ahead of a more potent upper trough extending from southern Ontario back toward the Canadian Rockies. 500-mb height anomalies run between 1 to 1.5 standard deviations below average per numerous global ensemble systems.
Although the core of lower heights should straddle the international border with Canada, the resultant cold frontal passage will favor a pattern shift into next weekend. Before this occurs, expect a warm and occasionally humid air mass to rule the forecast period. This will introduce nearly daily risks for showers and thunderstorms.

Looking more closely at the pattern, a warm front tracks across the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday. This leads to a southerly surge of moister air as dew points rises into the upper 50s to low 60s. The combination of increasing warmth and instability with weak forcing from a passing trough should enhance rain shower chances.
Additionally, there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon to evening hours. Overall buoyancy profiles do not look terribly impressive, but imagine the threat will be better ironed out once into the high-resolution model timeframes. A rather diffuse cold front pushes across the area early Thursday before a stronger system enters the picture by Friday. This latter push also brings another chance for thunderstorms given stronger upward forcing along the cold front. Some shower chances linger into the weekend as troughing remains overhead.

The overall temperature forecast favors above average readings through Friday. Daily highs will rise into the 70s each day, accompanied by mild overnight conditions. Expect a gradual downtick by late in the work week before a more pronounced drop off is noted by next weekend. At this point, highs in the upper 50s to 60s become more commonplace, locally cooler in the mountains. During this mid/late week period, expect breezy afternoon conditions given deep mixed boundary layers. Winds shift over to northwesterly over the weekend as cold advection persists.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through Tuesday. A few residual showers could impact the terminals overnight tonight, but chances are too low to mention in the TAFs at the moment. Winds today will turn southwesterly and gust to around 20-30 knots during the afternoon hours. Winds will turn out of the northwest tomorrow, and then south on Tuesday.

With a warm front pushing through the area on Wednesday, winds shift from southeast to southerly. Afternoon gusts could approach 20 to 25 knots at the area terminals. This is accompanied by a threat for showers and some thunderstorms. Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible in this regime. A weak cold front tracks through early Thursday which shifts winds over to northwesterly before turning more north-northeasterly later in the day. Shower chances persist but convection appears less likely. Additional restrictions are possible due to the rain shower threat.

MARINE
Winds will pick up out of the southwest today. Warm air moving over cooler waters will keep wind speeds lower over water than on land, but Small Craft Advisory conditions are still expected this afternoon into this evening. Sub-SCA northwesterly winds are expected tomorrow, with winds eventually turning light out of the south by Tuesday afternoon.

A shift to southerly winds with the warm front will lead a gusty wind which overspreads the area waterways. Small Craft Advisories may be needed Wednesday afternoon into portions of the night as gusts rise into the 20 to 25 knot level. Additionally, there will be a threat for showers and some thunderstorms. The latter may necessitate Special Marine Warnings for the stronger cores. A weak cold front moves through Thursday morning leading to north- northeasterly winds. Winds near advisory thresholds at times on Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER
Winds will pick up this afternoon out of the southwest, reaching around 15-20 mph sustained, with gusts to around 25-35 mph during the late afternoon hours. Minimum relative humidity values should be around 30-40 percent to the north and west of I-95, and between 25 and 30 percent to the south and east of I-95.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EDT Monday for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KCBE GREATER CUMBERLAND RGNL,WV 2 sm70 mincalm10 smClear45°F36°F70%30.03
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Wind History from CBE
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