Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Spanish Springs, NV

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spanish Springs, NV

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Area Discussion for - Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 042005 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 105 PM PDT Sun Jun 4 2023

SYNOPSIS

Showers and storms increase in coverage this afternoon and evening, delivering the chance of locally heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds. Above average temperatures will also encourage increased snowmelt rates through midweek. Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances return early this week along with cooler temperatures. Storms and near-normal temperatures remain in the forecast late week into next week.

DISCUSSION

Our recent pattern has this forecaster, and likely many of you, wondering just where did that spring/summer ridge go? Well, one ridge parked over the US and Canada border has kept things dry and hot there. Canada has been dealing with hot temperatures and wildfires, which is something we usually start talking about this time of year in the Intermountain West. Another ridge has meandered the west-central Pacific Ocean for a few weeks, which has set us up in the middle with this persistent troughing.

And let's talk a bit more about being stuck in the middle, as it pertains to today's forecast. We currently have the remnants of a cut-off center of circulation over the UT/NV border, which will provide moisture and instability from our east. We also have an inbound upper low that will begin to influence our storm behavior this evening into overnight. This could result in a few scenarios, both of which are represented (but not necessarily favored) in CAMs. One outcome could be very much like yesterday, where we will see storms firing over the Sierra that generally stay anchored to the area they initiated from. Yet another possibility involves the 600 mb steering flows shifting from the west- southwest ahead of the incoming low. This would cause the storms to begin to migrate east off the crest a bit before then moving north- northwest into northern Nevada. Storms that stay anchored may produce heavy rainfall amounts, which could lead to localized flash flooding. Any storms that build today additionally could contain small hail, gusty outflow winds and lightning, whether they stay anchored to the Sierra, or move along. Storm chances for the Sierra today are 15-25% for the northern Sierra, but from the Lake Tahoe Basin to the south chances increase to 40-60%. Chances then appear overnight in western Nevada of 10-20%, before we hit the reset button for Monday and set up for more storms.

Tomorrow brings us a special case of the Mondays as our storm chances increase even more. The center of the next low will be along the California coast near Los Angeles. And much like it's predecessors, it will be a lingerer. Ensemble guidance indicates the low will meander for the first half of the week around SoCal.
Storm chances will again be greatest along the Sierra for Monday (35-65%) while western Nevada gets in on less action (15-35%). Then looking ahead into Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat for storms positions along the Sierra and out into the western Nevada valleys. Chances increase to 25-65%, with the higher chances found along the Sierra crest and the Oregon border.

This introduction of more unsettled weather also invites the temperatures to be held in check this week. Daytime convection will provide cloud cover most afternoons, which will limit insolation. As a result, after Monday's above normal highs (mid-to upper-80s in western Nevada, 60s to mid-70s for Sierra locations)
we will see a return to near to below normal temperatures. Our averages here in the Reno-Carson-Minden areas hover in the upper-70s to 80, so expect this week's highs to hover around there. For the Tahoe Basin, averages are around mid- to upper-60s, which will be on the scene for this week. Temperatures could also drop in the vicinity of storms due to gusty outflows and rain- cooled air.

Tired of hearing the same stormy story yet? Bummer, because I was just getting started! I will try to wrap up by mentioning this stormy trend isn't going anywhere soon. Chances for storms from midweek through the weekend are around 25-50%. Highest chances will again be found along the Oregon border, with some filtering into western Nevada valleys and out over the Basin and Range. Longer term outlooks signal near to below average temperatures to continue, as we stay under the influence of this persistent troughing over the region. HRICH

AVIATION

* For today, there is a 35-55% of showers and storms in the Sierra affecting terminals KTRK-KTVL-KMMH. There is also a 10-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms in western NV and northeast CA, potentially impacting KRNO-KCXP-KMEV-KLOL. Otherwise, light winds and VFR will prevail.

* There is a continued fair chance (10-20%) for patchy fog and attendant MVFR/IFR conditions for KTRK early Sunday morning, particularly between the 10Z-15Z time-frame.

* Daily chances for showers and thunderstorm increase area-wide tomorrow through at least Wednesday. Chances are lower into late week, yet still suggesting showers and storms will be in the skies. McKellar/HRICH

HYDROLOGY

* Warm temperatures today along with clear skies will drive increases in snowmelt into midweek. Developing cumulus could limit the solar insolation and the resulting snow melt late in the afternoons.

* Prolonged moderate flooding will persist along the East Fork and Mainstem of the Walker River, with minor flooding anticipated to return to the West Fork through the Walker River Canyon. We'll also see the return of diurnally driven minor flood concerns along the West Fork of the Carson River at Woodfords. Minor flooding is forecast along the Humboldt at Imlay as the snowmelt flood wave arrives this afternoon.

* Creeks and streams areawide will be running high, cold, and fast; with some potentially out of banks throughout portions of Mono County. As a result, banks may be unstable so take caution near waterway edges.

* Thunderstorm chances return to the Sierra this afternoon with a 35-55% chance for a storm. Thunderstorm chances and coverage increase early this week for the Sierra, northeast CA, and western NV. Plan on a return of heavy rainfall, which may result in bursts of water in already brimming waterways. More storm coverage will provide a return of near or below normal temperatures and clouds, which will slow the diurnally driven snowmelt cycle.

- Edan/McKellar

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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