Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sheridan, CO

UPDATE
Issued at 805 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Widely sct high based showers along with some thunder linger over the plains early this evening. Based on current trends, expect most of this activity will end around midnight.

SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Widely scattered showers have formed over the higher terrain and along a weak convergence boundary to the east of Denver. Airmass is slightly unstable with SBCAPE of 100-300 J/kg. It is dry at the surface with dew points in the upper teens to 20s across most of the area. A few lower 30s are over the far northeast corner. Not much moisture to fuel the showers, so we are still expecting mainly gusty winds to 30 mph and little to no rainfall from the showers. By mid to late evening, the showers will come to an end as the airmass stabilizes.

A weak cold front drops south across the area late tonight and early Wednesday morning. This will bring northerly winds and increase low level moisture. Dew points climb into the 30s behind the front and as low level moisture continues to increase and the dew points will reach the 40s over most of northeast Colorado. The NAM seems to have too much low cloud and too cool of temperatures for Wednesday, which is limiting the instability from the model.
If temperatures reach the mid to upper 60s across northeast Colorado, SBCAPE will be 400- 1000 J/kg with the highest CAPE over the eastern plains. There might be enough shear and instability for a few strong to severe storms. Best chance for the stronger/severe storms will be across the eastern plains.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

A weak shortwave trough will move across northeast Colorado Wednesday evening and any storms that develop during the afternoon will continue moving east-northeastward. There are relatively high PoPs and QPF for the evening hours especially across the far northeast corner as storm congeal over the area with the best moisture. Some localized half inch rainfall totals are possible.
In the evening hours, conditions become stable quickly so any storms that may be producing large hail will weaken to below severe limits after sunset.

On Thursday, lee cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado will keep moderate easterly winds over northeast Colorado. As a result, it will be a cool and cloudy day and highs across the plains could stay in the 50s. Persistent southeast flow aloft will advect an elevated mixed layer over our forecast area. This will create instability and showers and storms are likely to develop as a result. The best coverage will be over the foothills and adjacent plains for these storms. Some storms may produce hail but the instability does not look to be strong enough for severe storms to form.

Friday will have a similar setup to Thursday although there will be ridging developing aloft which will limit the instability and forcing. Therefore, lower coverage of showers and storms are expected along with continued cool temperatures.

Ridging will strengthen on Saturday and Sunday ahead of an approaching cut-off trough over the Intermountain West. Strong south-southeast winds will form on Saturday across the plains warming temperatures well into the 70s. On Sunday, surface winds turn to the south-southwest which will create warmer and drier conditions. Given the strength of the winds (gusts around 40mph)
and low relative humidity (around 10-15%), there will be critical fire weather concerns across the plains, foothills, and South Park.

As the trough moves overhead Monday and Tuesday, cooler temperatures will return with a chance of precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR through Wednesday evening. Persistent broad cyclonic circulation has kept winds at DEN out of the east-northeast this evening. Expect these to weaken a little through the early overnight, with a turn to the north as a weak frontal boundary moves through closer to 09z. A few models still try to develop stratus close to 12z Wednesday but think this is overdone and did not include it in the TAF.

Winds should shift back to the northeast during the day Wednesday, with gradual convective development by early/mid-afternoon.
Guidance generally favors any TS holding off til around 22z. Main impact at the terminals would be gusty winds in/near any convection.

Easterly flow will persist into the evening and overnight hours Wednesday night. Guidance is in pretty good agreement advecting low level moisture/stratus towards the terminals, with MVFR cigs possible after around 06z tomorrow night.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.