Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grantsville, MD

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Elevated fire danger and near-record warmth expected this week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Elevated fire danger and near-record warmth expected this week.

Increasing temperatures will be the main story for this week as highs reach at least the 80s through next weekend. Highs in the 90s are likely in parts of the area Wednesday through Saturday.
Dew points in the 50s for most days will keep the heat risk at bay, but expecting several days to be particularly hot as we approach record warmth for April.

A few very brief light showers or sprinkles are possible late this morning through mid-afternoon as a lee-side trof moves across the area.

It will remain hot and dry through Thursday when upper ridge will crest over the area. A shortwave-trough will traverse the area Thu night knocking down temperatures into the 80s, but not much in the way of precip is expected since it will cross the area at an unfavorable time of day.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A few very brief light showers or sprinkles are possible late this morning through mid afternoon. Otherwise, windy with freq gusts 20-30 mph and peak gusts of 30-35 mph during the afternoon.

Hot and dry through Thursday. Not as windy Tue-Fri with gusts 20-25 kt each afternoon.

MARINE
SCA conditions are expected today with gusts 20-30 kt, strongest during the afternoon hours.

Winds drop below SCA levels tonight. Periods of SCA conditions are possible in southerly channeling each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

An upper level ridge will support well above normal temperatures through the end of the week with record breaking temperatures likely Wednesday and Thursday when temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s. As a result, wetting rains are not expected through the end of the week.

The forecast for today Monday has trended cooler since yesterday with thicker and more widespread cloud cover. As a result, Rh's are not expected to drop as much as previously thought from yesterday or a couple of days ago. A few very brief light showers or sprinkles are possible late this morning through mid afternoon, enough to keep Rh's above critical levels in the 30 to 40 percent. However, winds will be quite gusty during the afternoon with SW winds gusting up to 35 mph. Given the strength of the winds, an SPS is still warranted.

Tuesday through Thursday will feature temperatures at or above 90 degrees with marginally low humidities and gusty winds of 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon keeping the fire weather risk elevated.

Next week...cooler temperatures and slightly higher chances of precipitation should result in lower fire weather risk.

CLIMATE
Many daily records are likely to be broken this week, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April.

April 14 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 91F (1960) 65F (2014)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014)
Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014)
Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899)
Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014)

April 15 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 89F (1941) 65F (2023)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023)
Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)
Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)
Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941)
Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023)

April 16 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 92F (2002) 65F (2017)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)

April 17 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002) 65F (2002)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002) 59F (2024)
Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002) 66F (1896)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002) 66F (1976)
Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002) 60F (1941)
Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976) 65F (1976)
Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976) 68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002) 64F (2002)

All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA) 95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915

All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA) 70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>534-536>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535.