Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Deer Trail, CO

DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/
Issued at 302 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

After quite an active night and morning, we have the last round of strong/severe storms moving through the region for the next few hours. So far, these thunderstorms have been producing hail up to 1.5", but only sub-severe wind gusts (up to 50 mph). We expect the hail and wind threat to continue as storms travel east, but mainly be confined to the northern/northeastern counties. SPC mesoanalysis has a widespread SBCAPE of up to 2,000 J/Kg across the northern plains, but the Palmer Divide and southeastern plains are more stable due to early morning storms and overall lack of sunshine. Model Skew-T from most recent CAMs indicate the potential for 60 mph winds and large hail before the storms leave our area a little after 6 PM.

This evening, there will be scattered lingering showers due to residual moisture across the Front Range and adjacent plains.
With clearing skies overnight, relatively light winds and dew point depressions close to zero, there could be fog across the plains Wednesday morning. If this happens, the morning commute would be impacted with low visibility.

A warming and drying trend will begin Wednesday afternoon as an upper level ridge amplifies and travels east towards central CONUS. With southwest flow aloft, warm and dry air will be advected into the region. Temperatures should get up to the mid 80s across the plains on Wednesday. However, the main concern is towards the end of the week, where guidance has consistently trended towards 97+ degree max temperatures Thursday through Saturday, with Friday being the warmest day. ECMWF and GEFS have multiple members reaching over 100 degrees. But, there is still some uncertainty if we will reach triple digits or not as the ECMWF has trended down a little from yesterday. The record high temperatures for the 20th and 21st are 99 degrees (set in 2017 and 2007 respectively), so there is a chance we could break the record.

Another concern with the prolonged heat, is the fire weather threat. With the drier air being advected into the region, relative humidity values are expected to dip into the single digits, especially on Friday and Saturday. With breezy wind gusts possible towards the weekend, there could be elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, fuels still being green will keep fire danger low. We will continue to monitor.

Guidance has continued to indicate an upper level trough traversing the region at the beginning of the week. This will bring more precipitation to the mountains and plains as well as a brief cooldown.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Normal diurnal wind patterns are expected today and tonight. Winds will likely be a bit stronger out of the southeast during the afternoon on Thursday.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.