Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Swedesboro, NJ

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Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:55PM Sunday August 18, 2019 6:21 PM EDT (22:21 UTC) Moonrise 8:47PMMoonset 7:58AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 316 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms early, then a slight chance of showers and tstms early this evening. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 316 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Persistent southerly flow due to a bermuda high offshore will keep hot and humid conditions in place across the region through mid week. A slow moving cold front and associated low pressure will cross the region Thursday into Friday. This front will stall in the vicinity of our area then high pressure will build from the north into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swedesboro , NJ
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location: 39.72, -75.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 181916
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
316 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
Persistent southerly flow due to a bermuda high offshore will
keep hot and humid conditions in place across the region through
mid week. A slow moving cold front and associated low pressure
will cross the region Thursday into Friday. This front will
stall in the vicinity of our area then high pressure will build
from the north into the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Bermuda high pressure remains anchored off the southeast u.S.

Coast. A weak surface boundary lies across the northern half of
the forecast area and extends back down through southeast
pennsylvania and into the appalachians. Onshore flow ushers a
warm and humid airmass into the region. Surface dewpoints are in
the 70s for all but the southern poconos, and temperatures are
in the 80s to low 90s.

As a result, surface-based CAPE values range from 4000-5000
j kg. Some weak shortwave energy passing through the region will
interact with that aforementioned boundary to touch off showers
and thunderstorms across the region. Best chances lie along and
east of i-95, where storms have already started.

Effective bulk shear is generally on the order of 20 kt or
less. Storms will not have much motion, and with pwats almost 2
inches, storms will be capable of gusty winds and heavy rain.

Since these storms will be slow movers, any backbuilding and
training could result in localized flooding.

12z NAM indicating a bullseye of QPF just north of i-195 in new
jersey, and this seems to be correlated with that stationary
front over the area. So that is something to keep an eye on
going into this evening.

Convection tapers off after sunset with loss of diurnal
heating. A warm and humid night on tap with fog developing once
again.

A decaying MCS is moving through western pennsylvania and
western new york, and should track north and west of the region
late tonight. There may be some more showers and thunderstorms,
especially across the far northern zones, late tonight.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
Bermuda high remains offshore, and the hot and humid airmass
remains over the region. Turning a bit warmer with highs in the
low to mid 90s, except for the southern poconos, where highs
will be in the 80s. In addition, dewpoints will be in the low to
mid 70s, though with afternoon mixing, dewpoints should drop
back into the lower 70s in the afternoon during peak heating of
the day.

Max heat index values will be in the upper 90s for most of the
region, around 100 in the urban corridor, and 100 to as high as
105 in delmarva.

Will keep heat advisory in effect for the urban corridor.

Another shortwave passes through the region in the afternoon,
touching off scattered showers and thunderstorms in the late
afternoon through the early evening. Heavy rain is possible once
again.

Warm and humid Monday night with patchy fog possible once
again.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
The going thinking for the long term period remains largely the
same. An active stretch of weather is likely from Tuesday
through Thursday with several opportunities for convection. In
addition, the heat will remain a concern as hot and humid
conditions continue. On the synoptic level, our region will
reside on the northwest periphery of a subtropical ridge and the
bermuda high into midweek, before an approaching trough swings
through out of the great lakes. This will push a strong cold
front through the region with a major change in the air mass by
the end of the week.

On Tuesday, a dying surface boundary will be stalled over the
region, with a shortwave trough approaching. This will yield a
good opportunity for convection. The setup for Tuesday is
concerning from a hydro perspective. Pattern bears strong
resemblance to the maddox "type 2 frontal event" pattern which
is one of three patterns well known to favor flash flooding in
our region. One or more slow moving and potentially backbuilding
rounds of convection may develop in the vicinity of this
boundary on Tuesday, with activity likely continuing deep into
the night (another hallmark of the maddox pattern just
mentioned). With pwats rising near to above 2", it's hard to see
there not being issues with flash flooding. Am not confident on
which areas will have the best chance for activity, though if
anything would probably favor the western half of the region at
least during the daytime hours. With time, convective coverage
may become fairly widespread. Cannot discount the severe risk
Tuesday either. Weak shear should help limit the organization of
storms. However, strong instability is likely to build, which
should yield tall, slow moving storms with a threat for
downbursts wet microbursts and possibly some threat for hail in
the tallest storms. Hot weather will continue on Tuesday as the
weak frontal boundary does not have any sort of notable cooling
behind it. Many areas will see low 90s, with some mid 90s
possible if cloud cover is less than forecast. Heat index values
near to above 100 with a heat advisory remaining in place for
the urban corridor. Very warm and muggy overnight with scattered
to numerous storms continuing across the area.

For Wednesday and Thursday, we will be watching the approach of
a strong cold front as a trough moves out of the great lakes.

Sensible weather outcomes will be largely related to the timing
of the front, which has been a major question mark in the
guidance. On Wednesday, a weak prefrontal trough should help
initiate convection even with the front lagging a ways behind.

Similar to Tuesday, not confident in what areas will be most
favored for convection, but again expect scattered to
potentially widespread coverage. The severe weather threat may
increase on Wednesday, as wind fields improve and a strong upper
jet streak moves over the great lakes, classic positioning for
northeast and mid-atlantic severe weather. Given plenty of
moisture still in place, could be more hydro concerns as well
though storms should be faster moving. A potential wild card for
Wednesday is that if activity Tuesday night does drag on until
very late in the night, that could unexpectedly modify the
environment for Wednesday. On Thursday, even if the front is
more progressive, it still looks unlikely to clear the region
until late in the day, so another round of convection is
possible, this time favoring the southeastern half of the area.

From a heat perspective, another hot day is likely Wednesday,
though cloud cover should keep it a couple degrees cooler than
Tuesday. It is possible another heat advisory will be needed for
the urban corridor. Warm and humid again Wednesday night with
lingering convection possible. Thursday, temperatures will be
frontal dependent. It is possible drier and somewhat cooler air
will start to filter in over the northwest half of the region
especially if the front is faster. However, over the southeast
half of the cwa, another warm and muggy day is more likely.

For the period Thursday night through Sunday... Upper troughing
and a closed upper low across southeastern canada will be
moving slowly east with the mean flow turning west to
northwesterly. At the surface, an associated cold front will be
making its way through the region. The exact timing of this
system and cold front are quite a bit uncertain at this point
still, however it appears that the front will stall out near the
southern portion of the forecast area Thursday night into early
Friday. The front's passage will signal the end of what is
shaping up to be a hot, humid, wet, and active week. In its
wake, high pressure will build toward the north. Drier air and
cooler temperatures are expected into the weekend with Sunday
seeing the return of some humidity. Overall a mostly dry weekend
is forecast.

Aviation 19z Sunday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Scattered shra tsra in through this evening with MVFR or
ifr conditions if a storm passes over a given terminal. Otherwise,
vfr through this evening, then sub-vfr conditions late tonight in
fog and stratus once again. South winds less than 10 kt, becoming
lgt vrb tonight.

Monday through Monday night... Morning fog and stratus, thenVFR.

Scattered afternoon and evening shra tsra. Patchy fog possible
Monday night. SW winds 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday-Thursday... While prevailing conditions should beVFR,
several opportunities will exist for showers and thunderstorms
during this period. Periodic ceiling and visibility restrictions
are likely. In addition, low clouds and fog are possible
Tuesday night. Winds from Tuesday into Tuesday night should be
generally light and variable. Southwesterly flow develops late
Tuesday night and continues into at least early Thursday. A
shift to westerly winds is possible with a frontal passage
Thursday. Speeds generally running 5 to 10 kt with gusts
remaining under 20 kt.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions over the waters tonight, Monday, and Monday
night. Seas will be around 3 feet on the ocean and 1-2 feet on de
bay. South winds 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms into
this evening, then again Monday afternoon and evening. Patchy near
shore fog possible late tonight, and again Monday night.

Outlook...

Tuesday-Thursday... Conditions are expected to remain below sca
criteria. Southwesterly winds will gust near to just above 20 kt
from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Otherwise,
the winds should be steady from the south or southwest at around
10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, though cannot rule out a period of
near 5 ft seas Wednesday night into Thursday.

Rip currents...

there is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at
area beaches into this evening with 2 ft swell and southerly flow
around 10 kts.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory from 10 am Monday to 8 pm edt Tuesday for paz070-
071-102-104-106.

Nj... Heat advisory from 10 am Monday to 8 pm edt Tuesday for njz015-
017>019.

De... Heat advisory from 10 am Monday to 8 pm edt Tuesday for dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Staarmann
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... O'brien staarmann
aviation... Mps o'brien staarmann
marine... Mps o'brien staarmann


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 9 mi51 min 83°F 82°F1014.8 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 17 mi51 min 88°F 81°F1014.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 18 mi57 min N 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 80°F1015 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 18 mi57 min 82°F 83°F1014.3 hPa
BDSP1 21 mi51 min 86°F 82°F1015 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 29 mi57 min SSE 18 G 19 82°F 84°F1016 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 30 mi51 min N 1 G 2.9 82°F 84°F1015.1 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 34 mi45 min WSW 1 G 2.9 81°F 80°F1014.8 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 41 mi51 min W 1 G 1.9 79°F 80°F1015.5 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi111 min ESE 7 87°F 1015 hPa76°F
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 46 mi51 min SSE 8 65°F 1015 hPa55°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA12 mi27 minWSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F73°F65%1014.9 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE16 mi30 minW 710.00 miFair82°F73°F74%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHL

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4SW9S7S6S4S6S5S5S5S3--S3S3S4SE3----34S65S6SW11SW8
1 day ago--SE7SE11SE6SE4--SE3--E5E4E4--CalmE5E4--E5E5E7NE4SE4CalmSE4S5
2 days ago--SE9SE5--SE6E6SE6E5--E4--NE3E5NE5----NE4----3CalmCalmSE3SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Auburn, Oldmans Creek, New Jersey
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Auburn
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Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:06 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:27 PM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.71.322.52.932.82.21.50.90.50.20.40.91.52.12.52.72.62.21.510.6

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Sun -- 01:09 AM EDT     1.31 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:36 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM EDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:39 PM EDT     1.11 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:21 PM EDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.31.10.90.5-0.4-1.1-1.4-1.5-1.4-1.3-1.1-0.10.91.10.90.70.1-0.8-1.3-1.4-1.4-1.2-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.