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Marine Weather and Tides Swedesboro, NJ Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:27AM

Sunset 7:37PM

Sunday April 11, 2021 1:00 AM EDT (05:00 UTC)

Moonrise 5:37AM

Moonset 6:16PM

Illumination 1%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swedesboro , NJ

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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FXUS61 KPHI 110303 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1103 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

SYNOPSIS. Developing low pressure over the Mid- Mississippi Valley will lift north into the Great Lakes tonight through Sunday. A warm front extending out from that low will lift north through the region tonight, and then a cold front will pass through the region Sunday night. A broad area of low pressure will meander over the region into next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The forecast is mostly on track so far this evening. The lower clouds from today have dissipated and mainly high level clouds are in place across the area. The exception to this is low clouds and fog that is beginning to make its way onshore across the New Jersey coast. This cloud cover and fog is forecast to move inland through the evening hours, before additional cloud cover develops overnight as rainfall begins to move into the southern portions of the area shortly after midnight. As a warm front moves into the area overnight, the rainfall will spread northward, with all areas receiving rainfall by daybreak. As the warm front continues to lift northward through daybreak, enhanced lift will move across the area as well as the associated short wave/vorticity impulse moves across the area as well. This could lead to a period of moderate showers for a few hours Sunday morning. High resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement with the timing of this first round of showers between 06 and 18Z. There is the potential for some patchy fog to develop north of the lifting warm front before the rainfall moves into the area, but how dense the fog gets is still quite uncertain. High resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement with the timing of this first round of showers between 06 and 18Z. With the relatively high dewpoints and lower clouds (especially during the second half of the night), lows tonight will be well above normal in the 50s for most locations.

There is still a question as to where the warm front will end up by mid day Sunday. Most guidance depicts the warm front either stalling or even transitioning to a cold front briefly in the afternoon. This will be key both for temperatures as well as thunderstorm potential. The weak flow in the lower levels and a secondary surface low developing along the cold front to our west during the day would favor this solution with the warm front staying generally along or south of the I-78 corridor. Consequently, for areas along and south of Reading to Philadelphia, expect temperatures to get into the 70s (temperatures near 80 may even be possible in interior portions of Delmarva). North of this area though, highs should be in the 50s and 60s.

The second round of showers and thunderstorms should arrive with the cold front. For the most part, it looks like this won't arrive in our region until the evening hours, but I could see this being slightly faster depending on if the secondary low along the front doesn't deepen as much as currently depicted. Assuming the warm front stays over our region, most of the region should have limited instability. However, over Delmarva (or the rest of the region if the warm front lifts further north), ML CAPE values near 1000 J/Kg are possible. Bulk shear values could be 20 to 35 kt. Based on this, some strong storms (primarily for wind gusts) are certainly possible, but it doesn't appear to be a widespread threat.

Clouds and rain should clear out quickly in the wake of the cold front Sunday night.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A weakening closed upper low will be located northwest of the area on Monday, which is forecast to open with its associated vorticity maxima ejecting east across the area on Tuesday. At the surface, broad low pressure will also be located northwest of the area with surface ridging impinging from the northeast. Basically the main takeaways for this pattern in this period will be cool, mostly cloudy, and damp especially across New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. Delmarva actually looks to stay west of the cold air damming boundary, so warmer temperatures and less sky cover can be expected there. As far as precip goes, some light rain showers are possible across Pennsylvania and New Jersey with generally better chances toward the north and west closer to the upper low. Confidence on the coverage and timing of the showers remains low however, so we've maintained slight chance to chance PoP at most.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. The long term period will start Wednesday with 2 closed upper lows across the CONUS. The polar jet will be located well to the north of the region. The closed lows should open with the pattern trending more progressive by Friday or Saturday. There will be a possibility of more diurnally driven showers just about every day, with the highest chances Wednesday with the closed upper low nearly overhead. This should also be the most cloudy of the days in the period, with cloud cover generally lessening toward the end of the week as the upper low moves offshore and flow becomes zonal across the CONUS. Temperatures should be largely near climatological normals (highs ~60s/lows ~40s).

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through Tonight . Conditions should start mostly VFR. The exception to this is IFR ceilings that are already moving into the southern New Jersey coast. These low clouds will continue to move inland through this evening, before additional low clouds develop later this evening and overnight as rainfall moves across the area. By late tonight as rain starts to move in, expect widespread IFR conditions, and some LIFR conditions possible. Winds will become southeasterly around 5 to 10 knots through this evening. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern but low confidence on the details, especially timing.

Sunday . IFR/LIFR conditions will begin the day as rainfall moves across the area. An improvement to MVFR will likely occur from PHL southward as the initial round of rain moves north of the area. A brief period of VFR conditions is possible for southern New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. Winds will start out mostly southeasterly, but could shift to southerly, especially along and south of KPHL. Wind speeds should be 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern but low confidence on the details, especially timing.

Outlook .

Sunday night . A second round of rain showers and a few thunderstorms is expected Sunday evening, possibly continuing into the overnight hours. With this round of showers, MVFR and IFR conditions are possible, with conditions improving quickly to VFR behind a cold front. Expect an abrupt shift from southerly or easterly winds to northerly winds behind the front. Wind speeds should be generally 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Monday . MVFR ceilings probable at times, especially overnight. Rain showers possible. Winds northeast around 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . Lingering MVFR ceilings possible, otherwise VFR. Rain showers possible. Easterly winds becoming southeasterly around 5 kts. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Mostly VFR expected outside of any rain showers that may locally reduce restrictions. Northerly winds around 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Fog is expected to affect the ocean waters and southern portions of the Delaware Bay tonight and based on the latest obs from places like Wildwood, Atlantic City, and along Long Island we have gone ahead an issued a Marine Dense Fog Advisory which is in effect until 9 AM Sunday.

Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory tonight. On Sunday, seas could approach 5 ft on the Atlantic coastal waters, but conditions should mostly stay below SCA criteria. Sunday night, seas are expected to exceed 5 ft on the central and northern NJ coastal waters.

Outlook .

Monday . Northeast winds are forecast to be around 15-20 kts with seas building to 4-6 feet across the ocean waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued through Monday for the northern ocean waters, but this may need to be extended in time or expanded in area later.

Tuesday through Wednesday . Easterly winds of 5-10 kts and and seas 2-4 feet are forecast for this period. Marine headlines are not anticipated.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451.

Synopsis . MPS/Staarmann Near Term . Johnson/Robertson Short Term . Staarmann Long Term . Staarmann Aviation . Johnson/Robertson/Staarmann Marine . Fitzsimmons/Johnson/Staarmann

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA	9 mi	66 min		60°F	55°F		1007.1 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA	17 mi	66 min		60°F	53°F		1007.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE	18 mi	66 min	SSW 1.9 G 4.1	56°F			1007.8 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE	18 mi	66 min		56°F	55°F		1007.4 hPa
BDSP1	21 mi	66 min		61°F	53°F		1007.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ	29 mi	66 min		53°F	53°F		1008.5 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD	30 mi	66 min	E 1.9 G 1.9	56°F	58°F		1007.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ	34 mi	84 min	S 2.9 G 5.1	59°F	56°F		1008.1 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA	41 mi	66 min	S 2.9 G 5.1	58°F	56°F		1008.8 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ	46 mi	90 min	ESE 2.9	57°F			1010 hPa	56°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA	12 mi	66 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	59°F	56°F	90%	1007.8 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE	16 mi	69 min	N 0	9.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	57°F	56°F	96%	1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHL

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Auburn, Oldmans Creek, New Jersey

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Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current

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Weather Map

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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