Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilmington, DE

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Weak quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail through tonight aided by mid-level diffluence. At the surface, stalled frontal boundary remains situated over Virginia where a weak area of low pressure is riding along it. This low will move offshore on Monday as a weak area of high pressure settles south of Nova Scotia.

For tonight and into Monday, rinse and repeat. Dreary conditions and showery weather with periods of mist/drizzle will continue. Cannot pick out one certain time and location where precipitation will occur since there are a lot of mesoscale factors in play. Long story short is there will be at least a chance for showers across the entire forecast area tonight (30-60%), with mainly a slight chance of showers across the area on Monday (20-30%). PWATs are forecast to remain in the 1.25-1.75" range, so rainfall may be heavy at times. However, flood threat is low as any heavy rain that does occur will be brief. Total QPF through Monday will be rather light, with most locales remaining under a tenth of an inch, however locally higher amounts are possible.

Lows tonight will range in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs on Monday topping out in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Unsettled weather continues through much of the Short Term.
Weak low pressure approaches from the west Monday night, and this will pull the stationary boundary south of the area north as a warm front starting late Monday night. However, the front will likely not lift north through the region until Tuesday night. Cloudy skies with occasional showers from time to time, with one shot coming late Monday night through Tuesday morning, and then another shot Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Highs on Tuesday will be a bit warmer, generally in the low to mid 70s north of the Fall Line and in the upper 70s south of the Fall Line.

With the warm front north of the area on Wednesday, warm air advection will be underway, and highs will be in the mid to upper 80s throughout. Several shortwaves will pass through the region, keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast throughout the day.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The pattern finally looks to change for the end of this week and into the weekend. Bermuda high pressure sets up offshore and will result in a hot and increasingly humid airmass into the region on Thursday. Highs will be in the low 90s throughout, and surface dew points will be in the low 70s. Max Heat Index values will be in the upper 90s throughout, and Heat Advisories may be needed.

A strong cold front will approach and pass through the region late Thursday and Thursday night. This will spark off afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has a 15% risk for severe weather across portions of the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic on Thursday.

From there, conditions become settled into the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north and west. An upper trough passing through the region on Friday may touch off some showers across northern zones, but the majority of the area should stay dry with highs in the low to mid 80s and lower dew points. Sunny and warm conditions continue into Saturday.

Another cold front may result in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.

AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Any MVFR conditions will revert back to IFR conditions for all terminals, with LIFR possible overnight, mainly for KACY/KMIV. Cannot rule out some patchy fog and lower visibility, but guidance has lower chances of reduced visibility compared to the previous few nights. East- northeast winds around 3-8 kt. Moderate confidence overall.

Monday...IFR conditions to continue for most of Monday with little improvements. Some showers may be around, but confidence is not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. East- northeast winds around 10 kt. MVFR VSBYs expected in any drizzle. Low-moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night...Sub-VFR CIGs /VSBYs in fog, stratus, and scattered SHRA.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...VFR. Scattered TSRA possible with brief sub-VFR conditions, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday through Thursday night...VFR. Scattered afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA with brief sub-VFR conditions.

Friday...VFR.

MARINE
No marine headlines are in effect through Monday. East- northeast winds around 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 18-20 kt. Seas of 3-4 feet. Periods of showers, drizzle, and mist expected to continue through Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions expected through the week with max wind gusts below 20 kt and seas in the 2 to 4 ft range. VSBY restrictions in showers and fog through Tuesday night. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible on Wednesday and Thursday with locally stronger winds and higher waves.

Rip Currents...

For Monday, winds will be out of the northeast and nearly perpendicular to shore around 10-20 MPH, with 2 to 4 foot waves within the surf zone. Multiple swell groups are expected as well, with the longest period being around 8 to 9 seconds. This will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of rip currents for all beaches.

For Tuesday, winds turn to be a bit more east-southeasterly and decrease to around 10 MPH. Swell remains onshore but the number of swell groups look to consolidate with the period decreasing to 6-7 seconds. Breaking waves in the surf zone look to decrease to 2-3 feet as a result. The combination of these factors look to lead to a decreasing risk for the development of rip currents, so at this time a LOW risk is forecast for all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
With onshore flow continuing over multiple tide cycles, water will pile up within back bays and inlets. This will result in some spotty minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic coastline for areas in Atlantic and Cape May County, New Jersey and Sussex County in Delaware. Cannot rule out some spotty minor tidal flooding within the Delaware Bay and tidal Delaware River. The overnight high tide cycle tonight looks to bring the highest tides, with slowing declining water levels getting into this week.

CLIMATE
Georgetown and Wilmington set record low maximum temperatures today. Please see the Record Event Reports for more information.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.