Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Barnegat, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1 Drier conditions for Sunday and into the upcoming week. Above normal temperatures are expected for Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

2. Minor tidal flooding expected this weekend for coastal communities and areas around Delaware Bay.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... Drier conditions for Sunday and into the upcoming week. Above normal temperatures are expected for Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

Beyond Saturday, things turn drier with an expansive area of high pressure moving in. Some short range guidance wanted to develop showers over the higher terrain in the Poconos on Sunday afternoon, but thinking anything will be very isolated and non- impactful.
Otherwise, it will be dry across the area through mid-week.

Seasonable temperatures and a pleasant stretch are expected from Sunday through Monday. The heat returns for the middle of next week as ridging moves into the Mid-Atlantic. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day with temperatures potentially getting well into the 90s and heat indices flirting with Heat Advisory criteria.
The above normal temperatures look to continue through the end of the week, though a cold front may lower temperatures a smidge at some point.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor tidal flooding expected this weekend for coastal communities and areas around Delaware Bay. A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for this evening's high tide for most of the New Jersey coast, Delaware coast, and areas surrounding Delaware Bay.

A relatively light onshore flow sets up through this weekend, resulting in a minor push of water towards the coastline.
Astronomical tides are also increasing with the upcoming New Moon on Tuesday. This will result in elevated tides with minor tidal flooding possible beginning with the high tide this evening.
Guidance hints at tidal flooding continuing with the evening/nighttime high tide cycles into early next week before flow turns more southerly. However, there will be a stronger influence of astronomical tides as we get closer to the New Moon which could keep elevated tides through the middle of next week. The areas most at risk of seeing minor tidal flooding are along the Atlantic Ocean coastline and within Delaware Bay. The severity looks to remain within minor levels but will monitor how things trend over the coming days.

After minor tidal flooding was observed, the Coastal Flood Advisory was allowed to expire. A new one may be needed but won't be issued until later this morning.

Cannot rule out some spotty minor tidal flooding for communities along the Delaware River with the upcoming elevated tides. No tidal flooding is expected in our Eastern Shore zones along the Chesapeake Bay.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Tonight (through 12z)...Primarily VFR across the I-95 and Lehigh Valley Terminals. Guidance indicates less than a 10% chance of restrictions. Watching some stratus on satellite develop over New Jersey and Delaware but it seems to be struggling to make inroads with the drier air moving in from the north. This may make it to KILG, but didn't have high enough confidence to bring any restrictions in.

Story is a little different for KMIV/KACY. Expecting MVFR/IFR conditions for the next couple hours until drier air moves in.
Patchy fog is also possible given these two sites saw a good amount of rainfall today.

Winds out of the northeast around 3 to 8 kt. Moderate confidence.

Today...VFR. Main challenge today will be timing of wind shifts as winds gradually veer through the day, starting east/northeast and ending the day out of the south/southeast.
Winds will be around 5 to 10 kt with some gusts up to 20 kt possible at KACY. High confidence in prevailing VFR. Moderate confidence in timing of wind shifts.

Sunday Night...VFR. Winds generally out of the south around 5 kt or less though periods of calm likely especially for the second half of the night. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions expected through tonight with east/northeast winds around 10 to 15 kt and seas 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...No marine headlines expected.

Rip Currents...

For Sunday, onshore flow strengthens a bit with an east to northeast wind around 15 MPH. However, breaking wave heights remain low (1 to 3 feet) and the dominant wave period should only be around 7 seconds. This will result in a LOW risk for rip currents at all beaches.

For Monday, onshore flow continues with an east to southeast wind around 10-15 MPH. Breaking wave heights of 1 to 3 feet remain and the dominant wave period should be around 7 seconds.
There is also an increasing southeasterly swell along with the New Moon on Tuesday. This will all result in a MODERATE risk for rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.