Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pedrick, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will build towards the Southeast by this afternoon, then sags into the eastern Gulf Coast states tonight. Meanwhile, an H5 trough over the Northeast pulls away this evening and mid-level ridging builds into western zones by daybreak Saturday.

Several strong shortwaves will pass through the region throughout the day today and into tonight. Any spurts of precipitation will mostly be a few sprinkles or flurries for the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey. Dry conditions otherwise. These shortwaves will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon, then skies clear out tonight.

Gusty northwest winds will develop over the area, though winds will not be nearly as strong as they were on Thursday, generally averaging 10 to 15 mph with 20 to 25 mph gusts. Winds diminish this evening with loss of diurnal heating, and will become nearly calm late tonight as mid-level ridging builds into the region.

Another seasonably chilly day on tap with highs in the low to mid 50s, though a few degrees cooler in the higher elevations of the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to low 30s for most of southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey and in the mid to upper 30s in Delmarva. While winds will become nearly calm late tonight, there may still be enough clouds to keep optimal radiational cooling conditions from developing.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Initially, the region will be located between a trough departing to the east and a closed low over northern Manitoba moving southeastward. As the trough to the east departs fully, the upper-low over Manitoba will shift southeastward into Quebec by Sunday morning. Synoptic scale forcing for ascent will overspread the region beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing through Sunday morning as we will be located in the exit region of the cyclonically curved jet associated with the upper-low. The upper-low will shift into northern portions of New England through the day Sunday, with height rises and enhanced northwesterly flow aloft through Sunday night. At the surface, high pressure will be present initially with lowering pressures through the day Saturday as a surface cyclone tracks from the Northern Great Lakes into New England by Sunday morning. A warm front will lift northeastward through the region Saturday night, followed by a cold front Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. High pressure will quickly begin to build back in Sunday night behind the cold front.

Skies may be partly cloudy Saturday morning, but cloud cover will increase through the day, with most of the region being overcast by the afternoon and evening hours. Light rain may begin to move into portions of eastern PA and northern NJ, mainly along and northwest of I-95, by sunset. North of I-78 where cloud cover sets in sooner, high temperatures generally in the low-mid 50s are expected. South of I-78, highs should be in the upper 50s to near 60. Rainfall will be most widespread Saturday night, with PoPs ranging from 40-60% across the Delmarva and southern NJ generally south of the Philly metro, to 70-90% for the Philly metro and northward. Model soundings across the area feature some modest elevated instability, so a rumble of thunder or two will be possible. While rain is expected, significant amounts are unlikely, and still generally appear to be under 0.25", and highest for northern portions of the area. Warm advection will be ongoing through much of the night Saturday night, so lows will be fairly warm. Temperatures may not fall out of the 50s for the Philly metro southward, with temps in the low-mid 40s north. Rain chances will continue through the first half or so of Sunday, tapering off from west to east as a cold front approaches and moves through. Where the cold front clears earlier, highs may struggle to reach 50. This would be across our northern eastern PA counties and far northern NJ. Across the remainder of the area, upper 50s to near 60 will be likely once again.

After the cold front clears the area by Sunday afternoon, breezy northwesterly winds will set in. Wind gusts in the 30-35 mph range will be likely. Otherwise, skies will clear from west to east. Under mostly clear skies and with cold advection occurring behind the front, low temperatures will be noticeably cooler Sunday night, with a freeze expected across the higher terrain of the Poconos and into far northern NJ. Mid-upper 30s are expected elsewhere.

While not currently explicitly forecast, guidance is in fairly good agreement that this northwesterly flow regime behind the front Sunday into Sunday night could lead to some lake effect snow to the northwest of the area. It is not entirely out of the question that a snow shower or two could make it into far northern portions of the area, and this will continue to be monitored in future forecast cycles.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Height rises and slowly weakening flow aloft will continue through the day Monday. On Tuesday, a weak impulse will track eastward out of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions and should pass to the south of the area by Tuesday evening as it phases with the primary trough exiting our area. Northwesterly flow will continue through mid-week with only a few weak potential impulses glancing the area. At the surface, the general trend will be for high pressure to slowly continue to build in. A weak surface low will pass to the south of the area on Tuesday associated with the mid-level impulse.

Monday into Monday night should feature partly to mostly clear skies. On Tuesday, widespread cloud cover is expected across the entire area, with a little light precipitation. Slight chance PoPs are present across the entire area, but 30-40% PoPs are limited to along and south of I-78. There is an outside chance that precipitation could start as a rain/snow mix especially towards I- 78, but it looks like mostly rain. In any event, amounts currently look quite light.

Wednesday and Thursday currently look dry but mostly cloudy across the area. Below average temperatures are expected to continue through the long term, with highs generally in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming NW 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts this afternoon, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after 21Z. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming light and variable by 03Z or so. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (around 20%) of light rain late for the westernmost terminals.

Saturday night through Sunday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible in periods of rain and low ceilings through around midday Sunday. Northwest winds Sunday afternoon with gusts 20-30 kt possible.

Sunday night through Monday night...VFR. No significant weather.

Tuesday...Primarily VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions cannot be ruled out in light rain.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters from Cape Henlopen DE north to Sandy Hook NJ today. West to northwest winds will average 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Winds begin to diminish late this afternoon, then sub-SCA conditions tonight.

From Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE, west to northwest winds will average 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, though occasional gusts up to 25 kt are possible this afternoon. Do not think these gusts will be frequent enough nor widespread enough to justify an SCA.

West to northwest winds will be below SCA criteria on Delaware Bay today, averaging 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

North to northwest winds around 10 kt on all waters tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday...No marine headlines anticipated with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet.

Saturday night through Monday...Marine headlines are likely.
Saturday night southerly wind will increase to 20-25 kt. Sunday, winds will shift to northwesterly at 20-30 kt. Winds look to remain enhanced through Monday. While uncertain, there remains a possibility for a period of gales Sunday into Monday. Seas increasing to 4-7 feet.

Monday night...Lingering SCA conditions possible, but winds and seas will generally be on the decline.

Tuesday...No marine headlines anticipated with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>454.