Indianapolis, IN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Indianapolis, IN

April 16, 2024 7:53 AM EDT (11:53 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:02 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM
Moonrise 12:26 PM   Moonset 2:58 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indianapolis, IN
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Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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FXUS63 KIND 161036 AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 636 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thundershowers though morning.
- Gusty winds between 20 and 30 mph today.
- Showers and thundershowers expected overnight. A few strong storms possible.
- Severe storms possible on Wednesday - More rain around Thursday night, then dry and turning colder

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A cold front currently resides over southern portions of Indiana near the Ohio River. This boundary has triggered a few showers and thunderstorms, but these have been very isolated and short-lived.
High-res guidance shows occasional convective development along this boundary as it lifts northward through the morning. However, models have been a bit bullish regarding activity thus far compared to reality. Will keep PoPs quite low through morning.

Besides precip chances, winds behind the retreating cold front are expected to gain a more southerly component with time. The air mass south of the boundary is currently quite moist, but guidance shows drier air becoming entrained from a decaying continental air mass over the southeast. This may allow boundary layer mixing to be more efficient today, so despite thicker cloud cover another day with highs near 80 appears likely. A deepening surface low to our west will allow the MSLP gradient to tighten during the late morning and afternoon hours. Combined with efficient mixing, winds are expected to increase with a few gusts between 20-30mph possible.

By evening, the aforementioned surface low will be approaching the region. Showers and storms are currently firing up over the Great Plains and should progress eastward with time while the parent system slowly occludes. Guidance is in good agreement that these showers and storms outpace the system's narrow warm sector by the time they reach Indiana. Given that the primary axis of instability should be further west and that lapse rates appear marginal at best...severe weather is looking less likely, but a strong storm with gusty winds could still be possible. Timing-wise, look for this activity to spread into Indiana around 00z and continue into the night.

Low temperatures tonight are expected to be warm, given strong warm air advection and cloud cover. Expect lows to only drop back into the 60s by Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Wednesday...

An upper level trough will move through during the day, with a cold front at the surface. Some questions remain with the timing of the surface cold front, which would have impacts on the severe weather threat across central Indiana.

There will be additional forcing from an upper trough, and the area will be near the left exit region of an upper level jet. However, an inversion will likely help inhibit any convection until the front itself can provide enough forcing to overcome it. Thus, convection will likely be confined to a thin line along the front as it moves across central Indiana.

Colder air aloft moving in with the trough will provide steeper lapse rates, and there will be some shear as well. The front's timing will impact the available CAPE, with later arrival of the front leading to better instability to work with.

Given all the above, a conditional threat for severe weather exists, with large hail looking like the primary threat given the parameter space. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are also possible along the potential line of storms, but these have lower probability.

Again, the later arrival of the front would lead to higher CAPE and better chances for severe, while an earlier arrival will lead to lower CAPE and lower odds.

One interesting thing to note is that many CAMs keep the stronger cells out of central Indiana, keeping them east and north of the area. These are due in part to an earlier frontal passage.

Will go with likely PoPs most areas as a thin line is expected to move through with the front, regardless of strength of the convection.

Thursday and Friday...

A larger upper level system will move into the northern USA. At the surface, a cold front will move through the area with a surface wave riding along it. Forcing and moisture look adequate for high PoPs by Thursday night.

Rain chances will diminish on Friday. However, with the front stalling out not too far south of the area, some additional rain may sneak in on Friday night, mainly south. Will go with some low PoPs then.

Saturday and beyond...

Cooler weather will rule as the area is under a broad upper trough for much of the period. High pressure will be in control at the surface, keeping the area dry through Monday.

Low temperatures will dip into the middle and upper 30s for parts of the area Saturday and Sunday nights. If winds become low enough, frost can't be ruled out in the north, especially Sunday night.

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Impacts:

- Low probability of showers and thunderstorms before 00z.

- Winds gradually becoming southerly, some gusts to 20-30kt

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms after 00z.

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected for the majority of the day today.

A weak boundary is lifting northward across Indiana. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible but the probability is very low.
A gradual shift to southerly winds will be the most noticeable effect. Southerly winds may gust between 20-30 knots today.

A system approaching from the west will bring a renewed threat for showers and thunderstorms. The likelihood is much greater, and confidence is high that all terminals will see precipitation after about 00z. Showers or storms may temporarily reduce conditions to MVFR.

By Wednesday morning, showers and thunderstorms are expected to decrease in coverage though a few may remain beyond 10z. Towards the end of the TAF period, showers and storms may redevelop and increase in coverage as the system's cold front sweeps through. A shift to southwesterly winds is anticipated behind the front. Timing of the front is between 16z-20z Wed.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KEYE EAGLE CREEK AIRPARK,IN 8 sm60 minE 0610 smPartly Cloudy63°F45°F52%30.00
KIND INDIANAPOLIS INTL,IN 8 sm59 minE 0710 smMostly Cloudy63°F45°F52%30.00
KUMP INDIANAPOLIS METROPOLITAN,IN 12 sm18 mincalm9 smClear57°F46°F67%30.04
KMQJ INDIANAPOLIS RGNL,IN 14 sm18 minESE 078 smA Few Clouds59°F48°F67%30.03
KTYQ INDIANAPOLIS EXECUTIVE,IN 18 sm18 minESE 0610 smClear55°F46°F72%30.03
KGEZ SHELBYVILLE MUNI,IN 23 sm60 minE 0910 smClear63°F46°F55%30.01
Link to 5 minute data for KIND


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