NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of mid evening, high pressure was centered to our north and west with a northerly flow in the low levels continuing to advect in drier air in the wake of the cold front that moved through yesterday. That said, there is still a high cloud deck affecting most of the area as it advects up the coast in the southwesterly flow in the upper levels. However as the trough axis aloft just to our west moves through overnight this will help to shunt it off to our south and east bringing clearing skies. Lows in the 50s northwest, 60s elsewhere.

It should be just as pleasant beginning Saturday as it was today with temps in the early morning in the 60s warming into the low 80s by mid afternoon with relative humidity values in the 35-40% range. Light winds will continue and Saturday night lows will be quite similar to tonight's.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
While Sunday will be another day with tranquil conditions in a similar pattern to what we're seeing today and tomorrow, changes will be coming as early as Monday.

The positively tilted trough over our region today is expected to stall over the northwest Atlantic and cut-off in the upper flow over the weekend. By Monday, the low will deepen allowing a surface low to develop and retrograde to the northwest back over southern New England. As noted by the previous shift, there was a slight westward shift in this development, so have increased cloud cover and precip chances, especially over the eastern portions of the region on Monday. Also tended temperatures on the lower side of guidance in anticipation that if the westward trend continues, there will be more onshore flow, thus keeping temperatures lower.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Relatively few changes in the long term period.

The main feature in this period is an upper trough that will be approaching from the west around mid-week which ultimately may have a more widespread impact across our region. Although the actual low pressure system and cold front don't look to pass by our region until the Wednesday- Thursday timeframe, showers and storms will be possible beginning as early as Tuesday.

Temps for the long term period will be seasonable for the most part.
However, as surface flow generally becomes more southwesterly ahead of the cold front, expect considerable moisture advection during this time frame.

For Friday, the relief behind the initial cold front may be short lived as another fast moving short wave trough will approach from the west. Consequently, high temperatures on Friday may be close if not a degree or two higher from Thursday.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR expected. Winds will decouple with the loss of sunlight and will become light and variable overnight with a light northerly component. High confidence.

Saturday...VFR. Light north to northeast winds around 5 knots shifting to southeast in the afternoon at MIV and ACY due to a sea breeze. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday...VFR expected

Monday...VFR likely, some MVFR ceiling restrictions possible primarily at KACY.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Brief restrictions to MVFR with thunderstorms possible, especially in the afternoon.

MARINE
Winds and seas will remain sub-SCA thru Saturday evening. Dry conditions expected with southerly winds less than 15 kts eventually becoming north to northeasterly Saturday. Significant wave heights are forecast to be less than 3 feet through Saturday evening.

Outlook...

Sunday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Monday into Tuesday...Seas could approach 5 feet, especially further away from the New Jersey coast.

Wednesday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Rip Currents...

Saturday...Northeast winds will be 5-10 knots with breaking waves around 1-2 feet with a 7 to 9 second swell. This will result in a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

Sunday...Winds will come around to the S/SE but speeds will remain around 5 to 10 knots with breaking waves 1-2 feet and a swell continuing around 7 to 9 seconds. For this reason, we'll continue with a LOW risk for both the Jersey shore and the Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.