NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Showers continue to overspread the area this morning as an area of low pressure is developing near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.
Only minor tweaks to the PoPs made with the daybreak update. This weak coastal low will gradually move up the coast through today and tonight, ending up about 100 miles east of Long Beach Island by tomorrow morning. This will keep a moist onshore flow in place. Meanwhile, an upper level low over the western Carolinas continues to spin, with a shortwave lifting up the eastern side of the closed low into our area, aiding shower development. This setup will result in a cloudy and dreary period through tonight with off and on showers and perhaps some heavier downpours, especially along the coast. Rainfall amounts will be around a half inch to an inch over southern Delmarva and the New Jersey coast, with around a tenth to a quarter of an inch around the I-95 corridor and gradually decreasing amounts into the Lehigh Valley and southern Poconos. WPC introduced a very small MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall for the New Jersey coast as any heavy rain that does fall could result in ponding on some roadways due to poor drainage from higher tides.

Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 70s. With a somewhat tropical airmass in place and lots of cloud cover, temperatures will not drop much tonight, with low to mid 60s anticipated.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
It'll remain unsettled across most areas during the short term. An upper trough will remain across the region and the weak surface low offshore will continue to circulate low level moisture across the area. Clouds will be widespread across NJ/Delmarva and less so for the western counties. Scattered showers are possible both Thu/Fri, but the areas across eastern NJ are the most favored spots to see any rain. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs in the mid/upper 70s Thu before cooling a few degrees headed into Friday with highs largely in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The upcoming weekend looks rather benign across the Middle Atlantic.
The upper trough that has been across the area late this week will weaken allowing a weak ridge from the west to move in. At the surface, high pressure well to the northeast ridges back across the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic. Overall, no significant wet weather makers but since the airmass will be humid and somewhat onshore, a few daytime showers are possible.
We'll just have slight chance pops for Sat/Sun with the coastal/Delmarva areas (probably) most favored. Monday now looks drier with weak high pressure finally shifting overhead. Drier weather sticks around into Tuesday before the next system begins to move in from the west later in the day.

Temperatures will be close to normal Saturday with mid/upper 70s for highs most areas. After that, the onshore flow and more clouds will keep readings a bit cooler than normal with mostly low 70s for highs.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Primarily VFR at the Lehigh Valley terminals, though some MVFR stratus has developed at KRDG/KABE. Thinking that scatters out by the late morning. Otherwise, no issues there.
For the I-95 terminals, IFR to start for CIGs which should lift to MVFR by the late morning. Beyond that, the forecast becomes tricky. All 4 I-95 corridor terminals will be right on the edge of MVFR stratus through the afternoon and evening with ceilings around 2-3k feet. Have included a brief period of VFR though some terminals could stay MVFR if stratus stays far enough inland. For the South Jersey terminals, primarily IFR through today though KMIV could lift to MVFR for the afternoon. Some scattered showers around, though no visibility restrictions expected with the exception of KACY where some heavier downpours are possible, potentially reducing visibility briefly to 4-5 miles or so. Winds out of the northeast around 10 kt with some gusts upwards of 20-25 kt possible at KACY/KMIV and 15-20 kt at KPHL/KILG. Moderate confidence in forecast through the morning, low confidence for the afternoon/early evening.

Tonight...Primarily VFR for the Lehigh Valley terminals. MVFR expected at the I-95 corridor terminals with IFR expected at the South Jersey terminals as stratus overspreads New Jersey into the Philly metro area. Winds out of the north/northeast around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence overall.

Outlook...

Thu thru Sunday... Mostly VFR. Widely scattered showers with short periods of lower CIGS/VSBYs possible.

MARINE
For the Delaware Bay...The Small Craft Advisory was cancelled for the upper Delaware Bay where gusts should remain below 25 kt. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM for the lower Delaware Bay as gusts near 25 kt are possible, mainly near the mouth of the bay. For the afternoon and overnight period, no marine headlines expected for the bay as winds will be around 10-20 kt out of the northeast.

For the ocean zones...Small Craft Advisory in effect through Thursday as seas around 5-7 feet are expected. Winds out of the northeast around 15-20 kt with some gusts around 25 kt.

Outlook...

SCA for ocean zones will now be extended through 6PM Thursday.
Seas through that time will remain above 5ft. Additional extensions are likely, with seas expected to build into the weekend, upwards of 7 feet. NNE winds Thursday around 15-20 kts will ramp up on Friday, flirting with 25+ kt gusts into the weekend.

Rip currents...

For Wednesday, east winds will decrease slightly to around 15 mph but breaking waves remain 2 to 4 feet with an 8 to 9 second period. Therefore, the HIGH risk for the development of rip currents was maintained and a Rip Current Statement remains in effect through Wednesday for all beaches.

For Thursday, winds are forecast to shift more shore parallel out of the north-northeast and decrease to 10-15 mph. Breaking waves also decrease slightly to 2-3 feet with a 6-8 second period. Currently, a MODERATE risk for the development of rip current is forecast for all beaches as a result.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Continued onshore flow will result in water piling up and unable to drain within tidal waterways. Minor tidal flooding is expected for at least the next several high tide cycles for portions of our area.

Coastal Flood Advisories were posted for the New Jersey coast, Delaware Coast, and part of the Delaware Bay (Cumberland County in New Jersey and Kent County in Delaware) as minor tidal flooding is expected around high tide through the end of the week at least. As a result, the Coastal Flood Advisory is not just for tonight's high tide, but through the high tide Friday afternoon. Some of the guidance indicates moderate flooding towards the end of the week, but will stick with the advisory for now.

For the upper Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River, only spotty minor tidal flooding is expected for this week.

No tidal flooding is expected along the northeastern shore of Maryland currently at the moment.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EDT Friday for NJZ012>014-020>027.
High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EDT Friday for DEZ002>004.
High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ431.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.