Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Forked River, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Severe thunderstorms are tapering off across the area. A few storms could continue into the evening hours especially across the Poconos. While an isolated severe storm cannot be entirely ruled out with this activity, the threat has diminished enough to cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Showers/storms should be over by around the midnight hour as the actual cold front moves through. However as we go through the evening the severe threat will be continuing to diminish following the passage of the main line of storms off the coast.
Following the storms it will clear out overnight with west winds advecting in drier, and cooler air. Expect lows by morning mostly in the low to mid 60s.

For Friday, high pressure builds in to our south and SW with low pressure departing over the Canadian Maritimes. This will bring partly to mostly sunny skies with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s and much more comfortable humidity levels due to the drier W/NW flow.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The heat and humid conditions will build back into our area through the weekend.

As the southern flank of an upper-level trough gradually lifts out of the Northeast through Saturday, an expansive ridge initially centered near the Tennessee Valley will build eastward. This will place surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, which may then build westward some through late Sunday. This will all translate to a warming air mass and therefore the heat will be building once again. In addition, a much more humid air mass will once again overspread our area. The humid conditions will be more noticeable on Sunday.

A pronounced shortwave however is forecast to ride the northern side of the building ridge later Saturday into early Sunday. This shortwave could be convectively enhanced, and this will need to be watched as it rounds the ridge. Much of the guidance has this feature along with its associated convection staying just north of our region, however some convective development is possible Saturday night along its southern flank across our northern zones. This would occur if the building ridge is initially weak enough. If the ridge however builds in faster then this should tend to deflect the convection to our north. As of now given the uncertainty, there is a low risk (isolated) for severe thunderstorms across our northern areas late Saturday.

It will be very warm to hot Saturday and dew points should stay in the 60s thus limiting the heat indices at least some. However, dew points should increase Sunday along with a hotter air mass moving in and this looks to push heat indices to near 100 degrees especially for the I-95 corridor south and west (outside of the coast and the higher terrain). Some heat related headlines will be probable for at least parts of the area for Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Summary...Dangerous heat into midweek, then a little cooling should occur Thursday.

Synoptic Overview...An expansive upper-level ridge is forecast to become situated over our region the first half of next week, before it may weaken some and slide a bit west and south during the second half of the week. At the surface, high pressure mostly dominates however a weak trough may be in place, especially later in the week.

For Monday and Tuesday...A strong upper-level ridge is forecast to be situated nearly over our area during this time frame. This along with surface high pressure building westward from the western Atlantic will result in very hot/humid conditions. The combination of air temperatures well into the 90s and dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s will result in nearly widespread triple digit heat indices. Given the longevity of this plus very warm temperatures at night, especially in the urban areas, will result in dangerous heat.
Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings and/or Heat Advisories are probable.
Given the ridge aloft and the associated subsidence with it, little or no cumulus is expected and thus no convection. The low-level winds however should be light enough where sea/bay breezes probably develop resulting in at least some local cooling.

For Wednesday and Thursday...The upper-level ridge may settle a little south and westward during this time frame. While the heat and humidity looks to continue, it may decrease at least some especially Thursday with some more erosion of the northern side of the ridge.
In addition, a surface trough may become better defined and introduce a bit more clouds and also the potential for at least some diurnally driven convection. Heat related headlines look probable for at least parts of our region, especially Wednesday.

AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through Tonight...Showers and some storms continuing into this evening bringing periods of sub VFR conditions with visbys as low as IFR still possible. However after 01z, the threat for strong winds of 40+ knots will be lowering significantly and all showers/storms should be over by around 05z. SW winds becoming west to NW overnight at around 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Friday...VFR. West winds around 10 knots with some gusts to around 15 to 20 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...VFR.

Sunday through Tuesday...VFR. A bay/sea breeze is possible at KILG/KACY on Monday and again Tuesday.

MARINE
We've issued a Small Craft Advisory in effect for our ocean zones that runs until 10z Friday. This is due to seas expected to reach around 5 feet despite marginal winds that will likely struggle to produce gusts much over 20-22 knots or so outside of any storms. On that note, however, a few lingering storms will remain possible through the evening hours.

No Marine headlines are expected for Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night through Tuesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

For Friday, the winds shift to offshore and the wave heights diminish however it looks like there will be some longer period swell groups. For this reason, we will carry a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the NJ beaches with a LOW risk for the Delaware Beaches.

Conditions look similar for Saturday except the wave heights will be a bit lower while the flow becomes more shore parallel to even slightly onshore in spots as winds become more S/SW once again.
We'll continue with a MODERATE risk for rip currents for most of our NJ zones except for Monmouth County where the risk should be low due to the flow being more shore parallel. For the Delaware beaches we will also carry a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.