Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Obetz, OH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Scattered showers will continue to rotate around the upper level low currently situated down across the lower Mississippi Valley. The showers across our area are moving into a relatively dry airmass, but as we continue to moisten, activity should become somewhat more widespread through later this morning and into this afternoon. This will also be aided by a diurnal component which will eventually allow for some embedded thunderstorms as we head into this afternoon.
The clouds and pcpn will help limit temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A diurnal minimum in precipitation is expected Monday night, so PoPs will be kept limited. A few isolated showers will still be possible.

Showers and storms are expected again on Tuesday. Compared to Monday, the approaching upper low will be closer to the area -- in a more favorable position for broad, deep-layer forcing over the ILN CWA
This means that both the coverage and intensity of storms could be a little greater on Tuesday than on Monday, and slightly warmer boundary layer conditions will support a little more instability as well. With that said, it is interesting that CAM projections for Tuesday are very tied to the diurnal cycle -- keeping the forecast area mainly dry until after 17Z. Thus, PoPs have been heavily focused on peak diurnal timing for Tuesday.

The overall situation for Tuesday in terms of hazards looks similar to Monday, with perhaps a little bit of a greater chance for heavy rain and isolated flooding. Precipitable water values will be similar, but slightly weaker flow aloft will mean storm motions will be a little slower. Overall, the concern for flooding should still remain isolated. The severe threat, once again, looks minimal.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The closed low is directly over the local area to start the long term. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are likely ongoing in the evening hours, before gradual weakening and dissipation takes place overnight. Locally heavy downpours leading to rainfall amounts of 1- 2+ inches leading to localized flooding concerns is the primary threat expected with any thunderstorms.

The closed low begins to interact with the trough digging into the central and northern Plains, causing it to shift northeastward through the day on Wednesday. A diurnally driven increase of showers and thunderstorms is forecast during the afternoon with the greatest coverage across the Scioto River Valley region due to the trough axis shifting northeast.

Temperatures are much warmer Thursday (mid 80s) with mid-level ridging building over the Ohio Valley. Heights begin to fall during the evening, due to the trough shifting into the region. These height falls may be enough to trigger elevated convection late Thursday evening and night. Thermodynamically, mid-level lapse rates are very steep due to the EML shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley, however, a capping inversion likely limits the potential for widespread thunderstorms. Still, if thunderstorms do form, strong shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would support the possibility for large hail.

Through the overnight into Friday morning, a cold front will attempt to move through the area, but there are at least some indications it may stall with a shortwave trough ejecting eastward out of the central Plains. This shortwave results in another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. In these types of situations, the instability pool is typically favored south of the local area due to tendency for convectively driven cold-pools to move southward. Ultimately, it will depend on the strength of the cold front as it moves through the area Friday morning.

Saturday and Sunday feature mostly zonal jet stream flow as trough passes to the north of the region. Lower-end PoPs/t-storm chances remains but are focused to southern areas as a weak system propagates along the northern periphery of a ridge over the Gulf Coast. At this time, temperatures are likely a few degrees cooler during the weekend in comparison to Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected for the start of the TAF period, with ESE winds of 10 knots or less.

Chances for rain will gradually increase today. A few very light showers have already begun to move into the area, but with little impact to aviation expected during the morning. Initially, these showers will be scattered and light. However, some heavier showers (and possibly thunderstorms) will occur during the afternoon. Most of the showers and storms will dissipate after 23Z, with just a low-end chance of some light showers through the overnight hours. The TAFs will be kept dry after 23Z.

In addition, MVFR ceilings will also move into the area from south to north this afternoon. Some IFR ceilings are possible later in the evening, and this has been included for the Columbus and Dayton TAF sites, but confidence is a little lower for the other airports.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Wednesday, then again on Thursday night. MVFR ceilings are expected Tuesday morning, and then possible again Wednesday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.