Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for National Park, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Light rain continues to move into the region from the south, and showers will become steadier and more persistent throughout the day. No significant changes are needed to the forecast.

Otherwise, a closed H5 low near the Gulf Coast states will lift to the north towards the Ohio Valley later today, then backs into the Great Lakes tonight. Several waves of surface low pressure will spin off of this upper low and will lift north along the East Coast first, this afternoon, then again late tonight.

Wet weather will be in place as several waves of showers will lift through the region. With increasing onshore flow, temperatures will be on the cooler side today with highs in the 60s to around 70. Lows tonight will be in the 50s to low 60s.

Some unstable air will lift north into southern portions of the area, mainly south of Philadelphia, and a few thunderstorms will be possible across Delmarva and southern New Jersey tonight.

Overall, 1/4 to 1/2 inch QPF will fall across northern New Jersey, while 1/2 to 1 inch will fall across the rest of the area, while up to 1 1/2 inches is possible over western suburbs of Philadelphia today and tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
A closed low continues to approach the region on Wednesday from the southwest bringing an unsettled batch of weather for midweek. Scattered showers move across the area Wednesday with some isolated thunderstorms possible. For the thunderstorms, there is a marginal risk of severe weather for a large portion of Delmarva which is supported by the warm and humid air mass that will be in place which will allow instability to climb during the day. There is also some shear present as well.
Primary concern for any isolated severe thunderstorms would be damaging wind gusts. The environment for any severe weather becomes less favorable as you progress northward out of Delmarva.

The coverage of showers starts to decrease Wednesday night as they become more isolated and a rumble of thunder still cannot be ruled out. This isolated coverage continues for Thursday morning before becoming more scattered Thursday afternoon and evening. We trend drier for Thursday night with a weak surface high passing through.

As for temperatures, clouds and rain will keep the area cooler on Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s. By Thursday, we are a bit warmer with highs in the 70s for most. Lows both nights will be in the 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The brief lull in unsettled weather continues Friday morning, as an upper-level ridge builds in with a weak surface high pressure system still passing through. This will allow drier conditions but does not do much in the way of cloud cover. The high pressure system does not last long as more showers and even some thunderstorms arrive for the second half of Friday. A low pressure system near the Great Lakes will lead to another active stretch of weather for the end of the week and into the weekend.

For Friday, there is a signal there for a cold front to move through later in the day which could lead to more of a focal point for showers and any thunderstorm potential. Another cold front arrives later Saturday, which could have a similar scenario as Friday by leading to a more focused area of showers and thunderstorms. There is the potential for a severe weather risk with the cold fronts on Friday and Saturday but there is still uncertainty given this being in the long term part of the forecast period. By Sunday, there is still a slight chance for some showers to end the weekend and by Monday we trend drier overall with a shower possible in the afternoon.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...CIGs/VSBYs will lower to MVFR trough 18Z, and then CIGs will lower to IFR by 21-00Z. Visibility mainly VFR to MVFR, though VSBYs may dip to IFR from time to time in SHRA will be on tap for the rest of the day. E-SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to around 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt later today.
Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...IFR CIGs and MVFR/IFR VBSYs in SHRA/BR. Isolated TSRA possible at KPHL, KILG, KMIV, KACY. SE winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sub-VFR with intervals of IFR likely through Thursday with showers and a few thunderstorms. Conditions should improve a bit Friday and Saturday with lower chances for showers and still some thunderstorms possible.

MARINE
East to southeast winds 10 to 15 kt will increase to 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts from south to north later today and tonight. Seas will build to 4 to 6 feet over northern NJ ocean waters and to 6 to 8 feet over southern NJ and DE ocean waters as well. Small Craft Advisories go into effect later today and continue through tonight. VSBY restrictions in showers and fog today and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible tonight.

Outlook...

Winds likely drop below SCA levels by Wednesday evening, but SCA wave thresholds of 5 feet may persist on the ocean waters until during the day on Thursday. Showers and spotty thunderstorms will also be a concern on the waters through this entire period.

Sub-SCA conditions should then take hold by Thursday evening and continue through Saturday. However, showers and spotty thunderstorms may continue to be a risk through Saturday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
No significant changes to the tidal and coastal flooding forecast. Prolonged southeasterly flow will lead to an increase in surge values as the week progresses, especially for the upper Delaware Bay and tidal Delaware River. Surge values are forecast to peak as much as 1-2 feet above normal. As a result, minor coastal flooding is forecast with the overnight high tide cycles beginning Tuesday night and continuing through at least Wednesday or Thursday night.

A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued to highlight the threat of minor coastal flooding for these areas. Additional advisories or extensions may be needed in future updates.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ451>455.