Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Refton, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Moisture-starved cold front continues to approach western Pennsylvania this afternoon, with dry air behind the frontal passage allowing for a gradual west-to-east clearing trend across central Pennsylvania this evening. MaxTs thus far have underperformed across eastern Pennsylvania due to the persistent cloud cover, thus have knocked a few degrees off of temperatures throughout the rest of the evening based on current observations and blending with the most recent NBM model guidance.

Clearing skies are expected overnight, with radiational cooling across the western half of the forecast area with high confidence, allowing for low temperatures into Wednesday morning dipping into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Slightly more uncertainty with regards to the cold frontal passage timing across southeastern Pennsylvania, thus cooling might not be as efficient with low temperatures into the lower 50s. These low temperatures will generally be above-average for the middle of October across all of central Pennsylvania.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Relatively cool temperatures are progged through the middle part of the week behind the cold front, with dry air allowing for no precipitation mentions through Thursday. Cool overnight periods will bring about frost/freeze concerns, mainly Thursday night into Friday, across the Lower Susquehanna Valley where seven zones remain in the growing season (see latest PNSCTP for update on growing season). Confidence on frost/freeze concerns across the Lower Susquehanna Valley warrants continued mentions in the HWO and will need to be monitored over the next few forecast cycles for headline decisions.

Daytime dryness will peak on Thursday with room for downside to minRH in the 25-35% range. 20-25 mph wind gusts particularly over the eastern portion of the area could create some concern for fire weather partners depending on how quickly dead fine fuels can cure post the cool/wet/dank Columbus Day and weekend rainfall.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Little change in the long-term forecast cycle for the Tuesday afternoon update. Departing high pressure will allow for mostly dry conditions through Saturday; however, a slight increase in moisture has been progged by some model guidance Saturday morning, allowing for slight chances of precipitation to be introduced in this timeframe. Better chances for precipitation comes on Sunday and into the beginning of next week.

Previous Discussion, Issued 3:51 AM EDT 10/14/2025: Mild trend ramps through the weekend with max temps 65-75F behind an increasing southerly return flow on the backside of departing sfc high pressure. Latest model data continues to favor dry/rain-free wx through Saturday.

Strong upper trough and well defined frontal system should tap Gulf moisture moving east of the Mississippi River. This system will most likely bring rain/showers to CPA Sunday through Sunday night/early Monday. Timing could easily shift +/- 12hr with GFS and EC showing their typical fast/slow bias at this range, but overall the models are in pretty good agreement showing the frontal rainfall on Sunday transitioning to a cooler, breezy post-frontal NW flow to begin next week.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR stratus has been very slow to dissipate today, though satellite imagery shows the northwestern edge starting to slide southeastward. VFR conditions have returned to BFD and all other airfields will see ceilings slowly rise through the rest of the afternoon. After a brief period of mainly clear skies this evening, high clouds increase in coverage once again overnight ahead of an approaching shortwave. Most sites will remain VFR, but model soundings suggest a period of MVFR ceilings is probable at BFD and JST.

Skies clear out during the day on Tuesday and VFR conditions will return area-wide. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots possible in the afternoon at MDT and LNS.

Outlook...

Wed...VFR.

Thu...VFR, still breezy.

Fri-Sat... VFR

Sun...Restrictions possible in SHRA. Low probability of a thunderstorm over northwest PA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.