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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1233 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Overnight..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 1233 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will build across the southeast states through Saturday. A strong frontal system will impact the region on Sunday. High pressure will return Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed starting Saturday night, and are likely Sunday into Monday. Gales are possible Sunday into Monday, as well.

FXUS61 KCTP 080626 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 126 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Upper level ridging upper will build into the region tonight and last through Saturday. Low pressure will track west of the state this weekend, with a trailing cold front traversing the region late Sunday. Widespread rain is expected late Saturday night into Sunday, with colder air arriving for a changeover to snow over the Alleghenies Sunday afternoon and night before precipitation tapers to flurries on Monday. Fair and seasonable conditions are then expected for most of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A dry night is in store as upper level ridging builds eastward tonight, but a fair amount of clouds are expected to linger for the first part of tonight. A surface warm front pushing into Western PA may result in nearly steady temps across the Laurel Highlands tonight, while boundary layer decoupling further east results in lows in the upper 20s to low 30s across most of Central PA. Patchy valley fog is expected in areas that clear out and decouple.

Upper level ridging takes hold Friday with plentiful sunshine and mild temperatures. Southerly flow, warming aloft and a return of sunshine with GEFS 2m temps +10-15F above climo will translate to highs in the upper 40s over the northeast part of the forecast area and the mid 50s in the southern valleys.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Friday night and Saturday remain fair under the upper ridge. A similar west to east breakdown in min temps is expected Friday night with an active southerly breeze holding temps in the 35-40F range over the Allegheny Plateau, while surface ridging along the east coast results in decoupling and min temps in the low 30s over the eastern counties. Have also added patchy fog to the Sat AM forecast over the southeast half of the forecast area based on latest SREF and NAMNest guidance.

The slow moving warm front looks to be hung up along the Appalachians Saturday. Thus, the warmest temps with highs in the mid 50s are expected over the western counties, while cold air damming east of the front keeps readings a bit cooler in Eastern PA. Upper level ridging along the east coast should keep it dry for most, if not all, of Central PA. However, can't rule out a shower sneaking into the W Mtns toward dusk ahead of an upstream cold front, but it appears showers will hold off until well after dark for most.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Models indicate a longwave upper level trough will move across the area late Sunday into Monday. System is not likely to cut off over our area, but several low pressure centers likely to track along the cold front on Sunday. Potential for moderate to heavy rain ahead and along the cold front. Unlike last Sunday, potential for severe storms not showing up, as 500 mb height falls lag the front, and dewpoints not really above 50 degrees.

About 1.50 to 2.25 inches of rain is expected for much of central PA Sunday. Isolated flooding is possible, mainly north of I-81 and east of the Susq River Valley, but by and large we expect this to be a beneficial rain, especially across the southern tier where it has been dry of late.

A sfc inversion ahead of the cold front will likely keep wind gusts sub 30 mph much of the day Sunday, but gusts to 40+ mph are possible behind the cold front, especially across the higher elevations.

Models and WPC guidance point to a low potential for several inches of snow behind the front Sunday night, mainly across the areas north and west of the mountains. Any snow snow showers would taper off on Monday, as the system lifts out of the area.

For the Tuesday into Thursday period, a secondary cold front moves across the region, but mainly a dry front. Nothing real cold or warm expected.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Warm front moving through portions of south central PA at 06Z, resulting in some mid level ceilings. Farther east into the Susquehanna Valley, seeing some MVFR visibilities as a result of fog that remains in place due to quick decoupling Thursday evening. This fog also stretches back west in northern PA, but high confidence in all fog mixing out as the warm front lifts north/east of KIPT by 08-09Z.

VFR conditions then look to prevail for Friday as south winds develop, becoming gusty at 10-15 knots across the Alleghenies.
These will largely diminish Friday evening as lowering ceilings approach from the west, possibly nearing MVFR criteria at KBFD by 06Z. The 06-12Z period shows increasing confidence in lowering ceilings farther east, as well as fog development in the Susquehanna Valley with sub-VFR conditions likely.

Outlook...

Sat...IFR fog early east, then MVFR ceilings BFD and VFR elsewhere daytime. Showers NW late.

Sun...CFROPA. Widespread reductions in rain/snow. Windy.

Mon...Rain/snow showers poss N/W. Breezy west wind.

Tue...Mainly dry with VFR conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Thu -- 12:42 AM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:35 AM EST     1.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:15 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:37 PM EST     1.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Thu -- 01:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:00 AM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:18 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:42 PM EST     1.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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